CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm a bit confused with how the result lines up with Biden being down 3-5% nationally. If you adjust the exit polls to the likely result (Newsom +26), Biden's approval is about +25/26. That's only 3-4% below his 2020 margin, which would put him about even nationally, not down 3-5%.

The exit poll has Biden +19, but with about a Newsom +20 result, which is... not happening.

Right, they keep quoting exit polls which got the results wrong in the first place.

So they want us to believe that Biden is +19 in an electorate where the Dems were +27.  OK even if that were true it shows Dems are over performing Biden's approval.  The better thing would be to compare this to Newsom 2018.

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit confused with how the result lines up with Biden being down 3-5% nationally. If you adjust the exit polls to the likely result (Newsom +26), Biden's approval is about +25/26. That's only 3-4% below his 2020 margin, which would put him about even nationally, not down 3-5%.

The exit poll has Biden +19, but with about a Newsom +20 result, which is... not happening.

Right, they keep quoting exit polls which got the results wrong in the first place.

So they want us to believe that Biden is +19 in an electorate where the Dems were +27.  OK even if that were true it shows Dems are over performing Biden's approval.  The better thing would be to compare this to Newsom 2018.

And I'm more confused at how someone like Harry Enten is misunderstanding this, when he should know better.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm a bit confused with how the result lines up with Biden being down 3-5% nationally. If you adjust the exit polls to the likely result (Newsom +26), Biden's approval is about +25/26. That's only 3-4% below his 2020 margin, which would put him about even nationally, not down 3-5%.

The exit poll has Biden +19, but with about a Newsom +20 result, which is... not happening.

Right, they keep quoting exit polls which got the results wrong in the first place.

So they want us to believe that Biden is +19 in an electorate where the Dems were +27.  OK even if that were true it shows Dems are over performing Biden's approval.  The better thing would be to compare this to Newsom 2018.

And I'm more confused at how someone like Harry Enten is misunderstanding this, when he should know better.

they are building up interest in the upcoming "VA horserace."

[Pericles]

Just ignore US exit polls, they're all junk.

[_.]

Next updates for large California Counties:

SEP 20, 2021

16:00 PT / 19:00 ET - San Bernardino County
17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - San Diego County
17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - Orange County
17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - Santa Clara County
18:00 PT / 21:00 ET - Riverside County

SEP 21, 2021

16:00 PT / 19:00 ET - Los Angeles County
16:00 PT / 19:00 ET - Sacramento County

SEP 24, 2021

17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - Contra Costa County

UNKNOWN

Alameda County
Fresno County

LA does Tues and Fri updates

https://lavote.net/docs/rrcc/election-info/09142021_Canvass-Update-Schedule.pdf?v=2

Thank you for the correction!

[Non Swing Voter]

Next updates for large California Counties:

SEP 20, 2021

16:00 PT / 19:00 ET - San Bernardino County
17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - San Diego County
17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - Orange County
17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - Santa Clara County
18:00 PT / 21:00 ET - Riverside County

SEP 21, 2021

16:00 PT / 19:00 ET - Sacramento County

SEP 24, 2021

17:00 PT / 20:00 ET - Contra Costa County

UNKNOWN

Los Angeles County
Alameda County
Fresno County

Thank you for compiling this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just ignore US exit polls, they're all junk.

All our polls are junk now. We have to go off of the environment and state partisanship now.

[DINGO Joe]

LA does Tues and Fri updates

https://lavote.net/docs/rrcc/election-info/09142021_Canvass-Update-Schedule.pdf?v=2

They really do have almost 300,000 votes to count.  Most of the big counties have fewer votes left than the Friday unprocessed ballot update indicates  (San Diageo 185k instead of 310K, Orange 129k instead of 224k, Riverside 70k instead of 180k) I'd guess there are about 2 million votes left +/- 100k.  With 12.5m to 12.8m being the final vote total.  2018 had a little over 12.4m votes in the Gov race (a little over 12.7m votes cast overall that year)

[Sbane]

Keep an eye on Placer County. Although more than a third of the vote is still out, yes on recall is winning by only 2 points. That is an almost 16 point swing from 2018. Perhaps yes will grow as more of the vote comes in, but this is yet another fast growing suburban area Republicans are having trouble in.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are the latest results by city from Orange County (as of 5 p.m. September 17). Per the registar with 100 of precincts reporting. (Red for cities won by Joe Biden in 2020; blue for those won by tfg.)

NO
Santa Ana (69.50%)
Irvine (64.30%)
Laguna Beach (60.88%)
Tustin (60.46%)
Stanton (60.10%)
Laguna Woods (58.93%)
Anaheim (57.33%)
Buena Park (57.27%)
La Palma (56.42%)
Fullerton (55.60%)
La Habra (55.04%)
Garden Grove (54.43%)
Aliso Viejo (53.31%)
Costa Mesa (52.34%)
Seal Beach (52.28%)
Cypress (51.90%)
Westminster (51.52%)
Lake Forest (51.37%)
Placentia (50.46%)
Orange (50.37%)

YES
Los Alamitos (50.20%)
Laguna Niguel (50.93%)
Laguna Hills (51.08%)
Brea (51.58%)
Fountain Valley (51.68%)
Mission Viejo (51.95%)
Rancho Santa Margarita (53.85%)
Huntington Beach (55.26%)
San Juan Capistrano (55.93%)
Dana Point (56.15%)
San Clemente (59.47%)
Newport Beach (60.26%)
Yorba Linda (61.94%)
Villa Park (64.80%)

Results by Congressional Districts (Only Orange County)
NO
CA-46 (Lou Correa, D) = 64.11%
CA-38 (Linda T. Sanchez, D) = 56.42%
CA-45 (Katie Porter, D) = 53.17%
CA-47 (Alan S. Lowenthal, D) = 52.48%
CA-39 (Young Kim, R) = 50.15%

YES
CA-48 (Michelle E. Park Steele, R) = 51.70%
CA-49 (Mike T. Levin, D) = 56.91%

[Devils30]

Here are the latest results by city from Orange County (as of 5 p.m. September 17). Per the registar with 100 of precincts reporting. (Red for cities won by Joe Biden in 2020; blue for those won by tfg.)

NO
Santa Ana (69.50%)
Irvine (64.30%)
Laguna Beach (60.88%)
Tustin (60.46%)
Stanton (60.10%)
Laguna Woods (58.93%)
Anaheim (57.33%)
Buena Park (57.27%)
La Palma (56.42%)
Fullerton (55.60%)
La Habra (55.04%)
Garden Grove (54.43%)
Aliso Viejo (53.31%)
Costa Mesa (52.34%)
Seal Beach (52.28%)
Cypress (51.90%)
Westminster (51.52%)
Lake Forest (51.37%)
Placentia (50.46%)
Orange (50.37%)

YES
Los Alamitos (50.20%)
Laguna Niguel (50.93%)
Laguna Hills (51.08%)
Brea (51.58%)
Fountain Valley (51.68%)
Mission Viejo (51.95%)
Rancho Santa Margarita (53.85%)
Huntington Beach (55.26%)
San Juan Capistrano (55.93%)
Dana Point (56.15%)
San Clemente (59.47%)
Newport Beach (60.26%)
Yorba Linda (61.94%)
Villa Park (64.80%)

Results by Congressional Districts (Only Orange County)
NO
CA-46 (Lou Correa, D) = 64.11%
CA-38 (Linda T. Sanchez, D) = 56.42%
CA-45 (Katie Porter, D) = 53.17%
CA-47 (Alan S. Lowenthal, D) = 52.48%
CA-39 (Young Kim, R) = 50.15%

YES
CA-48 (Michelle E. Park Steele, R) = 51.70%
CA-49 (Mike T. Levin, D) = 56.91%

This is just OC. 39 looks very good for no, solid sign for Dems next year. The Ds on the redistricting commission should try to exchange blue parts of LA county in 47 for red parts of OC in 48.

[Greedo punched first]

Here are the latest results by city from Orange County (as of 5 p.m. September 17). Per the registar with 100 of precincts reporting. (Red for cities won by Joe Biden in 2020; blue for those won by tfg.)

NO
Santa Ana (69.50%)
Irvine (64.30%)
Laguna Beach (60.88%)
Tustin (60.46%)
Stanton (60.10%)
Laguna Woods (58.93%)
Anaheim (57.33%)
Buena Park (57.27%)
La Palma (56.42%)
Fullerton (55.60%)
La Habra (55.04%)
Garden Grove (54.43%)
Aliso Viejo (53.31%)
Costa Mesa (52.34%)
Seal Beach (52.28%)
Cypress (51.90%)
Westminster (51.52%)
Lake Forest (51.37%)
Placentia (50.46%)
Orange (50.37%)

YES
Los Alamitos (50.20%)
Laguna Niguel (50.93%)
Laguna Hills (51.08%)
Brea (51.58%)
Fountain Valley (51.68%)
Mission Viejo (51.95%)
Rancho Santa Margarita (53.85%)
Huntington Beach (55.26%)
San Juan Capistrano (55.93%)
Dana Point (56.15%)
San Clemente (59.47%)
Newport Beach (60.26%)
Yorba Linda (61.94%)
Villa Park (64.80%)

Results by Congressional Districts (Only Orange County)
NO
CA-46 (Lou Correa, D) = 64.11%
CA-38 (Linda T. Sanchez, D) = 56.42%
CA-45 (Katie Porter, D) = 53.17%
CA-47 (Alan S. Lowenthal, D) = 52.48%
CA-39 (Young Kim, R) = 50.15%

YES
CA-48 (Michelle E. Park Steele, R) = 51.70%
CA-49 (Mike T. Levin, D) = 56.91%

This is just OC. 39 looks very good for no, solid sign for Dems next year. The Ds on the redistricting commission should try to exchange blue parts of LA county in 47 for red parts of OC in 48.

Isn’t that partisan gerrymandering? Partisan data is not used in California.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just ignore US exit polls, they're all junk.

All our polls are junk now. We have to go off of the environment and state partisanship now.

Good point.  I find exit polls to be somewhat more offensive though... you'd think they'd be more accurate as the votes are locked in when people respond, but I suspect people are just lying to pollsters more now (Trump voters).

[Non Swing Voter]

Well looks like Kim and Steele better be ready for millions and millions being poured in against them in their 2022 elections...

[Continential]

Just ignore US exit polls, they're all junk.

All our polls are junk now. We have to go off of the environment and state partisanship now.

Good point.  I find exit polls to be somewhat more offensive though... you'd think they'd be more accurate as the votes are locked in when people respond, but I suspect people are just lying to pollsters more now (Trump voters).

And they wouldn't respond to the polls, leading to there being a smaller variation of Trump supporters responding.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just ignore US exit polls, they're all junk.

All our polls are junk now. We have to go off of the environment and state partisanship now.

Good point.  I find exit polls to be somewhat more offensive though... you'd think they'd be more accurate as the votes are locked in when people respond, but I suspect people are just lying to pollsters more now (Trump voters).

And they wouldn't respond to the polls, leading to there being a smaller variation of Trump supporters responding.

Yeah... and then THEY complain about the polls being off, as if they aren't the cause of it.

[wbrocks67]

John Cox is perhaps the biggest loser in all of this. He went from getting 38% of the vote in 2018 to 4.3% of the replacement vote... and that is the number when you take OUT the people who didn't pick someone!

[DrScholl]

Cox has no real following or base of support. He only made the top two because Republicans didn't want to get locked out and decided to back him.

[_.]

San Bernardino County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since Friday's update)

50.3% (-1.2%) / 252,348 votes (+18,938) / NO
49.7% (+1.2%) / 249,578 votes (+29,769) / YES


Damn, San Bernardino voted for the recall, didn't it? Truly astonishing and surprising

[E-Dawg]

Merced finally flipped to Yes

[Matty]

Where are you guys following results?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Boooo. Riverside just flipped to yes

Yes  339,496  50.04   (+0.57)
No   339,020  49.96    (-0.57)


30k VBM + 5k provisionals left to count

[E-Dawg]

Where are you guys following results?

I've mainly been checking the NYT page (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/14/us/elections/results-california-recall.html)
and the state sos page (https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/governor-recall)

[Real Texan Politics]

Larry Elder teasing a 2022 run?
https://twitter.com/larryelder/status/1440095580403867651?s=20

[Devils30]

It's basically 2018 all over again