CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[kwabbit]

Are there gonna be daily dumps like after the 2020 election? There's still a lot of votes to be counted.

[Matty]

Is OC 100% in?

[Cyrusman]

Is OC 100% in?

Not still over 25% left

[Badger]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

 His post was entirely  Measured and restrained. I'm not sure where you're coming from with your response.

[Badger]

My own 2 cents about  this result.

1st, California desperately needs to Yet tightened its ballot access laws. Liberal ballot access laws are good in theory, but the requirements to get on the ballot here were a laughing stock for a state the size of Delaware or Wyoming, let alone for the largest one in the country. Having 46 candidates on the recall ballot  Degraded this  Is election from a joke to an outright farce. One could eliminate  Is 80% plus of the individuals on that  Ballot and would still include every individual who had any conceivable option in any other universe of being elected governor, right down to Caitlyn Jenner.

I will repeat my earlier post. The fact that republicans had yeah lookin's had a reasonable California friendly alternative in Faulconer,   Is or at least a somewhat seen right wing alternative in Cox, But still overwhelmingly coalesced around some hoarding and is sporting an  Is unreservedly batsh**t crazy  Is far right wing extremist crank Frank speaks volumes of not only why The party is completely toxic Justin California, but Wyatt relies on fundamentally undemocratic measuris mentally undemocratic measures such as senate  Is overall representation of rural state's, the filibuster, err, widespread bald faced Jerry mandering, and voter suppression efforts to maintain any semblance of power in this country.

I'm sorry to tell my fellow progressives, but translating these results to the 22 midterms, even for California congressional seats, is a fool's errand. I'm not necessarily saying democrats will be decimated or that they can't run competitively against some of these 1st terms who won in 18, but but we're really trying to compare apples and oranges here.

[Non Swing Voter]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

He’s just really passionate, but it does come off as a bit hateful and visceral

It’s unhealthy to be so angry.

And not sure why his avatar is libertarian. He’s not libertarian

lol, this is coming from the guy who calls everyone he disagrees with a "hack" allover the board, despite his own predictions being way way off and the "hacks" getting it almost entirely right. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

Since when did stating obvious facts become unacceptable to Republicans?

[Non Swing Voter]

My own 2 cents about  this result.

1st, California desperately needs to Yet tightened its ballot access laws. Liberal ballot access laws are good in theory, but the requirements to get on the ballot here were a laughing stock for a state the size of Delaware or Wyoming, let alone for the largest one in the country. Having 46 candidates on the recall ballot  Degraded this  Is election from a joke to an outright farce. One could eliminate  Is 80% plus of the individuals on that  Ballot and would still include every individual who had any conceivable option in any other universe of being elected governor, right down to Caitlyn Jenner.

I will repeat my earlier post. The fact that republicans had yeah lookin's had a reasonable California friendly alternative in Faulconer,   Is or at least a somewhat seen right wing alternative in Cox, But still overwhelmingly coalesced around some hoarding and is sporting an  Is unreservedly batsh**t crazy  Is far right wing extremist crank Frank speaks volumes of not only why The party is completely toxic Justin California, but Wyatt relies on fundamentally undemocratic measuris mentally undemocratic measures such as senate  Is overall representation of rural state's, the filibuster, err, widespread bald faced Jerry mandering, and voter suppression efforts to maintain any semblance of power in this country.

I'm sorry to tell my fellow progressives, but translating these results to the 22 midterms, even for California congressional seats, is a fool's errand. I'm not necessarily saying democrats will be decimated or that they can't run competitively against some of these 1st terms who won in 18, but but we're really trying to compare apples and oranges here.

Yes but it certainly shows that Biden's disapproval/typical midterm swing is being highly overstated.  It did not seem to impact this at all.  People will say California is a blue state but it has swingy areas.  It also tends to show that Dems are holding up in their core states.  But lets remember there are a lot of congressional seats in CA/NY/IL/New England/Mid-Atlantic, etc. etc. It's not like they are particularly reliant on say FL to maintain their house majority.  They do need to hold onto seats in places like PA and NC though.

[Matty]

My own 2 cents about  this result.

1st, California desperately needs to Yet tightened its ballot access laws. Liberal ballot access laws are good in theory, but the requirements to get on the ballot here were a laughing stock for a state the size of Delaware or Wyoming, let alone for the largest one in the country. Having 46 candidates on the recall ballot  Degraded this  Is election from a joke to an outright farce. One could eliminate  Is 80% plus of the individuals on that  Ballot and would still include every individual who had any conceivable option in any other universe of being elected governor, right down to Caitlyn Jenner.

I will repeat my earlier post. The fact that republicans had yeah lookin's had a reasonable California friendly alternative in Faulconer,   Is or at least a somewhat seen right wing alternative in Cox, But still overwhelmingly coalesced around some hoarding and is sporting an  Is unreservedly batsh**t crazy  Is far right wing extremist crank Frank speaks volumes of not only why The party is completely toxic Justin California, but Wyatt relies on fundamentally undemocratic measuris mentally undemocratic measures such as senate  Is overall representation of rural state's, the filibuster, err, widespread bald faced Jerry mandering, and voter suppression efforts to maintain any semblance of power in this country.

I'm sorry to tell my fellow progressives, but translating these results to the 22 midterms, even for California congressional seats, is a fool's errand. I'm not necessarily saying democrats will be decimated or that they can't run competitively against some of these 1st terms who won in 18, but but we're really trying to compare apples and oranges here.

Yes but it certainly shows that Biden's disapproval/typical midterm swing is being highly overstated.  It did not seem to impact this at all.  People will say California is a blue state but it has swingy areas.  It also tends to show that Dems are holding up in their core states.  But lets remember there are a lot of congressional seats in CA/NY/IL/New England/Mid-Atlantic, etc. etc. It's not like they are particularly reliant on say FL to maintain their house majority.  They do need to hold onto seats in places like PA and NC though.

The recall result suggests Biden is slightly underwater nationally. Or dead even.

[Non Swing Voter]

My own 2 cents about  this result.

1st, California desperately needs to Yet tightened its ballot access laws. Liberal ballot access laws are good in theory, but the requirements to get on the ballot here were a laughing stock for a state the size of Delaware or Wyoming, let alone for the largest one in the country. Having 46 candidates on the recall ballot  Degraded this  Is election from a joke to an outright farce. One could eliminate  Is 80% plus of the individuals on that  Ballot and would still include every individual who had any conceivable option in any other universe of being elected governor, right down to Caitlyn Jenner.

I will repeat my earlier post. The fact that republicans had yeah lookin's had a reasonable California friendly alternative in Faulconer,   Is or at least a somewhat seen right wing alternative in Cox, But still overwhelmingly coalesced around some hoarding and is sporting an  Is unreservedly batsh**t crazy  Is far right wing extremist crank Frank speaks volumes of not only why The party is completely toxic Justin California, but Wyatt relies on fundamentally undemocratic measuris mentally undemocratic measures such as senate  Is overall representation of rural state's, the filibuster, err, widespread bald faced Jerry mandering, and voter suppression efforts to maintain any semblance of power in this country.

I'm sorry to tell my fellow progressives, but translating these results to the 22 midterms, even for California congressional seats, is a fool's errand. I'm not necessarily saying democrats will be decimated or that they can't run competitively against some of these 1st terms who won in 18, but but we're really trying to compare apples and oranges here.

Yes but it certainly shows that Biden's disapproval/typical midterm swing is being highly overstated.  It did not seem to impact this at all.  People will say California is a blue state but it has swingy areas.  It also tends to show that Dems are holding up in their core states.  But lets remember there are a lot of congressional seats in CA/NY/IL/New England/Mid-Atlantic, etc. etc. It's not like they are particularly reliant on say FL to maintain their house majority.  They do need to hold onto seats in places like PA and NC though.

The recall result suggests Biden is slightly underwater nationally. Or dead even.

No it doesn't, not at all.  And when are you going to apologize for calling numerous posters who predicted exactly what happened "hacks" when you predicted Biden Newsom would survive by only 10 points?  That scenario would indicate Biden is underwater nationally.  Not what occurred in reality.

[DrScholl]

Of course this isn't an exact predictor of what could happen in 2022, but it does call into question how Republicans will actually fair. They needed to persuade a lot of Biden voters or at least see enough stay home for the recall. Neither of those happened and the results look a lot like 2020 did.    

[Calthrina950]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Stop.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1438204106330542084?s=21

Good point by Wasserman, and one that I've been trying to make. Newsom's triumph in the recall and McAuliffe's upcoming victory in Virginia (as well as Murphy's upcoming victory in New Jersey), don't necessarily negate the factors that could lead to Republicans regaining Congress next year (I'm emphasizing the important words here).

[Non Swing Voter]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Stop.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1438204106330542084?s=21

Good point by Wasserman, and one that I've been trying to make. Newsom's triumph in the recall and McAuliffe's upcoming victory in Virginia (as well as Murphy's upcoming victory in New Jersey), don't necessarily negate the factors that could lead to Republicans regaining Congress next year (I'm emphasizing the important words here).

Didn't Cook Political also claim Dems would pick up seats in the house in 2020?  I'd rather listen to TarHeelGent's hot takes than get Wasserman links.  At least THG's are amusing.

[Calthrina950]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Stop.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1438204106330542084?s=21

Good point by Wasserman, and one that I've been trying to make. Newsom's triumph in the recall and McAuliffe's upcoming victory in Virginia (as well as Murphy's upcoming victory in New Jersey), don't necessarily negate the factors that could lead to Republicans regaining Congress next year (I'm emphasizing the important words here).

Didn't Cook Political also claim Dems would pick up seats in the house in 2020?  I'd rather listen to TarHeelGent's hot takes than get Wasserman links.  At least THG's are amusing.

Again, did you see my response to you from the other day? Polarization can entail that Democrats win all of the gubernatorial races this year and that they hold their ground or even improve upon it in suburban/urban areas moving to the Party, but it can also mean that they lose out in several of the marginal districts and states with only a slight swing to the right compared to 2020's results.

[Cyrusman]

California really really really sucks at counting ballots

They move at a snails pace. They need to take some pointers from Florida.

[Cyrusman]

Of course this isn't an exact predictor of what could happen in 2022, but it does call into question how Republicans will actually fair. They needed to persuade a lot of Biden voters or at least see enough stay home for the recall. Neither of those happened and the results look a lot like 2020 did.    

Hard to stay home or forget about an election in CA. They do all the work for you and mail everykne a ballot. Unless you literally don’t check your mail

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Of course this isn't an exact predictor of what could happen in 2022, but it does call into question how Republicans will actually fair. They needed to persuade a lot of Biden voters or at least see enough stay home for the recall. Neither of those happened and the results look a lot like 2020 did.    

Hard to stay home or forget about an election in CA. They do all the work for you and mail everykne a ballot. Unless you literally don’t check your mail

Again, I take it you're not from California? Because you'd be very surprised

[Non Swing Voter]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Stop.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1438204106330542084?s=21

Good point by Wasserman, and one that I've been trying to make. Newsom's triumph in the recall and McAuliffe's upcoming victory in Virginia (as well as Murphy's upcoming victory in New Jersey), don't necessarily negate the factors that could lead to Republicans regaining Congress next year (I'm emphasizing the important words here).

Didn't Cook Political also claim Dems would pick up seats in the house in 2020?  I'd rather listen to TarHeelGent's hot takes than get Wasserman links.  At least THG's are amusing.

Again, did you see my response to you from the other day? Polarization can entail that Democrats win all of the gubernatorial races this year and that they hold their ground or even improve upon it in suburban/urban areas moving to the Party, but it can also mean that they lose out in several of the marginal districts and states with only a slight swing to the right compared to 2020's results.

That is obvious.  But the reality is 7 million more people voted for Biden and there are more Republicans in Biden districts than the reverse.  So if the argument is polarization then it's not good for Republicans (even if there is a slight swing to the right compared to 2020 results).  The only compelling argument Republicans give for winning in 2022 is that they will gerrymander their way to this result, but that remains to be seen.

[wbrocks67]

Edison has updated their exit polls.

Democrat: 94% no, 6% yes
Republican: 11% no, 89% yes
Independent: 52% no, 48% yes

Whites: 59% no, 41% yes
Blacks: 83% no, 17% yes
Latino: 60% no, 40% yes
Asian: 64% no, 36% yes

White college+: 70% no, 30% yes

Larry Elder fav: 32/51 (-18)
Biden job approval: 58/39 (+19)
Newsom job approval: 57/41 (+16)

--

Incredible that more Republicans voted no then Dems voting yes. Also that White College+ # is completely astonishing.

Latino vote aligns a little better with reality now it seems. Biden and Newsom job approvals also went up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

This isn’t rocket science. When it comes to COVID shaping our political discourse, it’s all about education and openness to masks and vaccines. Asians are generally better educated and come from countries that have histories of addressing infectious diseases/contagious respiratory illnesses via mask wearing.

Indeed, ever since SARS it has never been uncommon to see Chinese pedestrians in Cupertino wearing surgical masks.

My company has some employees who immigrated from Taiwan and Hong Kong, and for the last few years I noticed them wearing masks in the office during flu season.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

Since when did stating obvious facts become unacceptable to Republicans?

Try pointing out to them the facts about Biden's 2020 win and see what happens.

[NOVA Green]

Are there gonna be daily dumps like after the 2020 election? There's still a lot of votes to be counted.

Not quite sure how this will work in the context of a recall election where theoretically counting should go much quicker than during a regular GE or PRIM election, but general rule is that each county maintains their own update schedule.

Some counties such as OC & Santa Clara would typically update daily.
Others dumps might be 1x or 2x /week, although possibly with a greater frequency earlier on (Seem to recall Riverside & San Bernadino fitting more into that category).

Others don't necessarily much much reason or rhyme  with their schedules.

Some tend to be notorious for always being some of the last to finish counting their votes (Kern & Humboldt seem to always be some of the last).

Hope that helps, but really when I was doing daily tracking updates in the '16 and '20 PRES elections for Cali (Primary & GEs), I would typically go to each County website and create updates and notes in my daily result tracking spreadsheets.

Hope that helps--- don't plan on doing it for this election myself however.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I haven't posted here since yesterday night, before we got the results; so here's what I took away from this waste of $270 million:

I predicted that the recall would fail by about 16 points. I thought this not just because of polling during the summer but also because I was under the impression that Republican turnout would return to the typical rate of when they are out of power. I never thought they had a chance to remove Newsom, even when polling for him was at its worst, but I did think the margin would be a bit weak for a California election for the reason I laid out.

Now, even though we don't know the final margin it is looking pretty safely to be in the early 20's. So with that in mind, Republicans lost their bread-and-butter advantage of higher turnout as an equalizer in statewide elections while a Democrat is President. It should have been a worse result, but Democrats turned out. I don't want to extrapolate too much about 2022, at least not until the New Jersey and Virginia elections, but I do see a positive sign for Democrats from this. I may have underestimated my fellow Democratic voters. I expected them to become complacent again and allow Republicans to have the enthusiasm edge, but that didn't happen. Democrats can indeed still be motivated to vote in off-years when a Democrat is President, and it probably is due to white college educated voters now seemingly being the new backbone of the Democratic Party and due to the national GOP's devolution into a party that cares only about its increasingly unhinged primary voters (two sides of the same coin, really). So what this tells me is that in 2022, in certain states like California at least, the anti-recall playbook can be successful. Democrats are truly as receptive to fear tactics as Republicans always were; and fear works! In our case that fear is the Trumpization of the Republican Party, and other GOP candidates being tied to the former guy. It probably isn't a good sign for our country's potential  for unity going forward, but since the things we fear are far more realistic and tangible, it's necessary and probably should have been done more in 2020. I am still not entirely convinced that this will mitigate how bad 2022 could be, but I am certainly a bit more open to it now. And I have always said from the get-go that 2022 would be very polarized and in no way as good for the GOP as 2010 and 2014 objectively were. And I think this election might back that notion up.

We'll see still. I'm Progressive Pessimist after all! But needless to say, for now, I am satisfied with this result and the hubris it exposed from the California GOP. All this because Newsom made an optics blunder. Was it worth it?

[Devout Centrist]

Orange County just added around 24,000 votes; No expands its lead by around 2,000.

[Minnesota Mike]

Orange County just added around 24,000 votes; No expands its lead by around 2,000.

I don't think it is a given that the overall gap narrows. Almost all ED votes are in and MIB, even those cast late, are not necessarily Republican.

BTW today's OC vote was 54.5% NO - 45.5% YES. Around 200K left in OC.