CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Dan the Roman]

So going to step in here in the middle of the

Presidential Baseline = Neutral for GOP
Gubernatorial Baseline = Neutral/Good for Ds

It is worth noting that the GOP generic statewide support and the presidential support have always been different even if their trajectories have been converging.

2012 37%
2016 32%
2020 34%

2010 41%
2014 40%
2018 38%

The problem for those saying that the recall being around the 38% or so of 2018 is good are that

1. the separation of the questions meant that this is not a straight up D v. R. It is close, but the fact was there was probably a bit more bleeding from Newsome than would have occurred in a straight D v. R election.

2. GOP Federal candidates have consistently underperformed GOP statewide candidates for the past decade. A Kashkari 50% seat has generally been Lean D and a 2018 Cox seat is a tossup at best which the GOP may sneak a win with 51% in.

What that means is that the gubernatorial results have largely functioned as an absolute ceiling for R congressional candidates rather than a floor.

Yes, if treated as a proxy for a Republican is very likely the worst GOP gubernatorial result since 1978. And if that is projected forward, especially considering that Biden is in the WH, his national polling, and the Yes/NO nature of the recall, it implies that the 2020 revival was a one-off blip caused by the GOP having an advantage due to Ds abandoning field due to covid.

So in terms of California implications this is a very ominous result for the Rs sitting in Biden +10 seats. They might survive 2022, but the odds are that there will be under 7 Republican Representatives from California after the next marginally D leaning year and perhaps as few as 5 depending on districts.

If the last nine months couldn't slow the CA GOP's decade long slide, then nothing may be able to do so.

These numbers are bad for the GOP not because they are much worse than 2018 but because they imply the marginal gains in 2020 were the aberration.

[Dan the Roman]

Just to give an example let's look at CA-25

Presidential
2012 50-48 R
2016 50-44 D
2020 54 -44 D

Gubernatorial
2010 51-41 R
2014 57 - 43 R
2018 51-49 D

House
2012 55-45 R
2014  100 R lockout
2016 53 - 47 R
2018  54-46 D
2020  50-50 R

GOP Congressional candidates tend to do better than Presidential nominees but almost never better than gubernatorial or state candidates. Which means their odds in almost any NO seat are going to be dicey at best

[Matty]

Is there anywhere I can find city level results so far?

[Gass3268]

Is there anywhere I can find city level results so far?

No idea, but I posted an OC map of EV+ED votes on the prior page.

[Thunder98]

Holy crap!

The margins in OC have narrowed quite a bit with the ED vote.

[Matty]

Holy crap!

The margins in OC have narrowed quite a bit with the ED vote.

The margin in CA is going to go back up

There are still vbm to count

[Sbane]

Orange County map with early vote + election day.

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1438134042784763905?s=20

The fact that retain won in Seal Beach and Fountain Valley is pretty interesting. Fountain Valley could be due to the Vietnamese vote as well. Vietnamese areas do tend to vote more D when it comes to gubernatorial races for some reason.

[Sir Mohamed]

Congrats to the GOP for millions of dollars wasted and months of efforts all for nothing.

While I never expected Newsom to get ousted, I'm proud of my state for a clear cut decision to reject this recall. The GOP should just give it a rest or start coming up with serious candidates again that believe in science and basic norms. The county results for sure prove that HRC's and Biden's wins weren't flukes.

[Skill and Chance]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Twitter thread regarding OAN's coverage of last night's election:

One America News Network's handling of the GOP defeat in California has been so, so weird that I have to tell you about it.

OAN is low-rated and cheaply-produced, but it's on the channel lineup right next to legit news in millions of homes. It is a refuge for those who think Fox is too liberal. Its hosts pushed voter fraud propaganda before the polls closed in California.

The polls closed more than 10 hours ago. The recall failed. It wasn't close. But OAN *has not reported the results of the recall a single time* that I can find. I have scoured the transcripts and watched the morning coverage – zero mentions. But it's weirder than that...

OAN keeps talking ABOUT the recall. "Officials are finishing up the ballot count," different anchors reading the same script said at both 5 and 7am ET. But they're not admitting what AP, CNN, and everyone else reported last night: The recall failed. Newsom prevailed.

OAN keeps rerunning a generic news package that describe why the recall happened and, followed by recaps of Kevin Faulconer and Larry Elder's concession speeches, without explaining that they lost! Leaving viewers with the impression that... ?!?!?

Elder is even quoted saying "we may have lost the battle, but we are going to win the war." The on-screen tab says "RECALL NEWSOM;" the banner says "ELDER: WE'VE GOT A STATE TO SAVE." It's just strange – OAN is not alleging fraud but is totally ignoring the news.

Kicker: Here's Elder, in an interview that OAN re-aired at 3 in the morning after he conceded defeat, claiming "I think so many people are going to vote yes on this recall, there won't be any question about it." If I were the host, I'd be embarrassed to see this re-air.

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1438134712359399428

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

[Skill and Chance]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

Yes, the flip side of this is that these numbers look really encouraging for R's in trying to hold down TX/FL and win NV/AZ back. 

if you compare exit polls, No dramatically trailed Biden with Hispanics.  It was 58% No vs. 75% Biden!

[Matty]

At first, people were saying the exits were wrong about the Latino vote

But I’m looking at imperial county right now, an 80% latino county, and it’s almost at 41% to recall

[Matty]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

Yes, the flip side of this is that these numbers look really encouraging for R's in trying to hold down TX/FL and win NV/AZ back. 

if you compare exit polls, No dramatically trailed Biden with Hispanics.  It was 58% No vs. 75% Biden!

Biden did not win 75% of Latinos in CA. He won 63%

[Skill and Chance]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

Yes, the flip side of this is that these numbers look really encouraging for R's in trying to hold down TX/FL and win NV/AZ back. 

if you compare exit polls, No dramatically trailed Biden with Hispanics.  It was 58% No vs. 75% Biden!

Biden did not win 75% of Latinos in CA. He won 63%

The CNN exit poll has 75%.  Does a different exit poll have 63%?  63% sounds more like the nationwide number. 

[Matty]

I’m extremely extremely skeptical of the claim that trump only got 25% of the Latino vote in ca

[Kamala's side hoe]

I’m extremely extremely skeptical of the claim that trump only got 25% of the Latino vote in ca

But I definitely buy that he did better with CA Latinos than CA Asians.

[Non Swing Voter]

Too many people are negating these results because it's a safe D state.  It's also a diverse state with a lot of constituencies that mirror constituencies in other more competitive states (like college educated whites, suburban and exurban voters, etc.).  These results indicate that the gains Dems have made in suburban house districts are not going anywhere and will probably continue.  It appears to me that Republicans are collapsing in educated suburbs not just "elite" suburbs. 

If I were Glenn Youngkin I would see if I could get a refund on the tens of millions of ad dollars he's reserved and just fly into space with it instead.

[Matty]

It would be absolutely insulting to your supporters and your staff to drop out of a Virginia Governor race because of what happened in a state on the other side of the country that is around 21 points more Democratic

Let’s not get carried away lol

That’s like saying obama should have suspended campaign after 2012 Wisconsin recall

[Schiff for Senate]

It would be absolutely insulting to your supporters and your staff to drop out of a Virginia Governor race because of what happened in a state on the other side of the country that is around 21 points more Democratic

Let’s not get carried away lol

That’s like saying obama should have suspended campaign after 2012 Wisconsin recall

Matty is right. Democrats winning in CA, even by epic proprortions, is nothing notable or special; it's just that a lot of people really overestimated the GOP here. Had Elder lost by even just single digits, it would actually be a moral win for the GOP. Now, if he loses by more than, say, 20 points, it's not a good sign. But either way, Glenn Youngkin shouldn't drop out because of CA results (though I am saying it now - he will lose anyway, and lose by about 10 points or so).

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

Yes, the flip side of this is that these numbers look really encouraging for R's in trying to hold down TX/FL and win NV/AZ back. 

if you compare exit polls, No dramatically trailed Biden with Hispanics.  It was 58% No vs. 75% Biden!

Yeah, its crazy. Also, but an underrated flip currently is San Bernadino, which 40% out but Yes is only trailing by 4. Cox lost it by 3, so thats interesting.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/rauchway/status/1438162935537287170

[It’s so Joever]

The OC precinct results shown on here earlier don’t seem to align well with the exit polls.

[Devout Centrist]

There are approximately 204k ballots left to count in Orange County. I think these ballots will favor 'Yes' overall, but by a much smaller margin than the in-person votes. We shall find out around 5:30 PDT

[Skill and Chance]

There are approximately 209k VBM ballots left to count in Orange County. I think these ballots will favor 'Yes' overall, but by a much smaller margin than the in-person votes. We shall find out around 5:30 PDT

Weren't the "drop off/mail in the absentee ballot day of" group of people pretty R leaning in 2020?  I remember AZ and NC moved toward Trump with the latest-cast mail votes.