CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Matty]

I want just ONE conservative pundit to invite elder onto their show and ask him WHY he chose a recall election in a blue state to put forward his message rather than some nationwide speaking tour or GOTV initiative or something.

[Matty]

Between this and D-friendly redistricting in several populous (and less populous) states, people should really rethink their assumption that the House is considerably more likely to flip than the Senate.

Also, Young Kim needs to resign.

To be fair, in past elections, california was a poor indicator of waves.

The 2010 and 2014 waves did not reach CA.

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Please link to posts that are predicting this.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

No but perhaps those of you who called anyone who even suggested 2022 would be a fine year for Democrats should consider that maybe partisan voters will vote the way they are going to vote and it's not going to be a landslide for Republicans like many here are claiming.

Are you including me in this category? If so, that would be a misnterpretation of the views which I hold. I have said before that political polarization has intensified in recent years, and that the results in next year's midterm will likely be heavily influenced by it. Republicans will gain back the House by flipping Trump-House Democrat and marginal Democratic-held seats.

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Yeah, that's a really bad assumption on their part. My take from this is that Democrats can simultaneously lose the House while also defeating a number of Biden-district Republicans in the process.

I absolutely agree with you. Even in 1994 and 2010-which were utterly disastrous for the Democratic Party-they did manage to make some gains against Republicans.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Recall passes: "Red tsunami incoming!!!"

Recall fails by under 20 points: "Red wave incoming!!!"

Recall fails by over 20 points: "This result never meant a damn thing. Red wave incoming!!!"

[Frodo]

It was smart of Democrats to tie Larry Elder so close to Donald Trump.  

[Suburbia]

Chalian on CNN said that Latino men and Democrats are in a bind....

A lot of Latino men trend Republican. Some people say that they are anti-Black.

A lot of them are in the military and police, so they may be too "macho" and antiblack......

[Thunder98]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

[Alben Barkley]

Chalian on CNN said that Latino men and Democrats are in a bind....

A lot of Latino men trend Republican. Some people say that they are anti-Black.

A lot of them are in the military and police, so they may be too "macho" and antiblack......

Lol, peak bronz.

Well, I guess peak bronz would be the same said in the aftermath of an NY/NJ election.

[Matty]

Chalian on CNN said that Latino men and Democrats are in a bind....

A lot of Latino men trend Republican. Some people say that they are anti-Black.

A lot of them are in the military and police, so they may be too "macho" and antiblack......

the "latinos may be trending GOP because they are attracted to macho/strongmen" is a racist trope that needs to stop immediately.

It's not even true, at least anymore compared to other parts of the world.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

I don't think I've seen anyone say this before you did? That being said, the people claiming that "this election will show a collapse in Democratic support precipitating a collapse for Biden in the midterms" maybe need to...reevaluate.

There has (as of yet) been no mass "abandonment" of the Democrats/Biden from 2020.

It's not so much that people are saying it explicitly that they are implying it. I am someone who believes that next year will be a Republican-leaning environment, but I don't believe that Republicans will gain to the extent that they did in 1994 or 2010. However, I am also not convinced that Democrats will sweep all or that they will make major gains against their Republican opponents.

[kwabbit]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Yeah, that's a really bad assumption on their part. My take from this is that Democrats can simultaneously lose the House while also defeating a number of Biden-district Republicans in the process.

It goes beyond redistricting to. This has restored my confidence that the Democrats aren't going to face a 30-40 seat loss. They have such a small majority however that keeping the house is a likely situation.

The thing is 2010 was so bad for them that the GOP can't go any more nuts without cOuRt InTeRvEnTiOn.

[NOVA Green]

Damn Del Norte ruining the pacific coast sweep

Del Norte County results might indicate gains for the PUB challenger in OR-CD-04 in 2022 against DeFazio in similar communities across the OR-CA border.

Question is how far maxed out are PUB CD results in rurals of CD-04?

[Alben Barkley]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

I still think it cracks 20 in the final margin. The numbers in places where the vote is all in show virtually no shift from Biden's margin and in the larger counties where much of the same day vote is not in yet, Elder/"Yes" is not doing better than Trump by more than 4 or 5 points or so at the same point in the count with just mail-in voting in. Keeping in mind that Biden won by nearly 30 points, quite frankly "only" 20 points is a conservative estimate.

[Sestak]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

OC mathematically does not have the votes out to flip to Yes even if the remainder is 100% for recall. Given Riverside margin atm I don't think it flips either.

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

I don't think I've seen anyone say this before you did? That being said, the people claiming that "this election will show a collapse in Democratic support precipitating a collapse for Biden in the midterms" maybe need to...reevaluate.

There has (as of yet) been no mass "abandonment" of the Democrats/Biden from 2020.

It's not so much that people are saying it explicitly that they are implying it. I am someone who believes that next year will be a Republican-leaning environment, but I don't believe that Republicans will gain to the extent that they did in 1994 or 2010. However, I am also not convinced that Democrats will sweep all or that they will make major gains against their Republican opponents.

Some are "implying" it?  As opposed to many of the blue avatars here who EXPLICITLY said the CA recall would be within 10 points?  Which is more off base?  The red avatars seem to have a better track record of predicting things lately.

[Alben Barkley]

Lol, MSNBC only needed to give an hour to the recall coverage.

I wish they would give Kornacki a full-time job. I missed him! They should make it like an on-air FiveThirtyEight where it's all nerdy, data-and-number-based, fairly objective analysis with egghead guests. That would be sweet, and a hell of a step up from Joy Reid, that's for sure. Or even Chris Hayes if they have to replace a bespectacled white guy with another.

[jamestroll]

One thing I do suspect (and suspected even before this) is that 2022 will be absolutely devastating for blue state Republicans/red state Democrats across the board — I expect it to be an incredibly polarized straight-ticket midterm like no other before. This result also points to such an environment.

Yea I agree with this take

I think VA gov is going to be a route via the same basis

VA gov is going to be extremely close...

[Gass3268]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

[Alben Barkley]

One thing I do suspect (and suspected even before this) is that 2022 will be absolutely devastating for blue state Republicans/red state Democrats across the board — I expect it to be an incredibly polarized straight-ticket midterm like no other before. This result also points to such an environment.

Yea I agree with this take

I think VA gov is going to be a route via the same basis

VA gov is going to be extremely close...

(X)

I think it will be a lot like this where it will be hyped up as close or even a potential upset, but ultimately T-Mac wins comfortably by a margin not all that far off from Biden's.

[NOVA Green]

*HOT TAKE *

Latino swings in CA and elsewhere as a % of voters btwn Trump '16 and Trump '20 was overrated.

Can't recall my exact quote I made sometime around the 2020 GE, but something to the effect that: "I would happily exchange raw vote margins for % vote margins".

Marginal gains among occasional voters in a large TO election (2020 GE PRES) do not translate to an overall net gain of RAW VOTES.

[swf541]

One thing I do suspect (and suspected even before this) is that 2022 will be absolutely devastating for blue state Republicans/red state Democrats across the board — I expect it to be an incredibly polarized straight-ticket midterm like no other before. This result also points to such an environment.

Yea I agree with this take

I think VA gov is going to be a route via the same basis

VA gov is going to be extremely close...

We'll see, Youngkin's campaign is a dumpster fire lol

[Matty]

One thing to remember is that VA is not a recall election. A lot of voters are simply against recalls.

VA also doesn't have a radio host idiot running as the GOP candidate.

VA will be a dem win, but it will be imo within 5 points.

[Ferguson97]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.