CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

Or, more seriously, Steyer &/or Villaraigosa 2022?

What kind of governor would Steyer be?

[Telesquare]

Ose is backing Kiley now
https://mobile.twitter.com/DougOse/status/1430252349696577541

[Telesquare]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1433614249692127240

[_.]

Total ballots returned = 5,420,220
Dems: 2,898,394 (53.5%)
Reps: 1,312,542 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,209,284 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (28%), Reps (25%), Ind/Other (18%)

Total ballots returned = 5,730,338
Dems: 3,051,561 (53.3%)
Reps: 1,399,655 (24.4%)
Ind/Other: 1,279,122 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (29%), Reps (26%), Ind/Other (20%)

Hey there, where are you getting this data and how does it compare to the eve of Election 2020?

[brucejoel99]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

Or, more seriously, Steyer &/or Villaraigosa 2022?

What kind of governor would Steyer be?

Presumably just a generic Democratic Governor, although perhaps with an even more significant focus on climate change.

[Sir Mohamed]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

Or, more seriously, Steyer &/or Villaraigosa 2022?

What kind of governor would Steyer be?

Presumably just a generic Democratic Governor, although perhaps with an even more significant focus on climate change.

Yup, though the real question is how he'd handle the bureaucracy and legislature. CA isn't an easy state to govern and as Brown proved, experience is of value here. Steyer doesn't have experience in public office.

[DaleCooper]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

[Greedo punched first]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

You think CA-GOV and/or CA-SEN in 2022 will be D vs. D?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Ose is backing Kiley now
https://mobile.twitter.com/DougOse/status/1430252349696577541

Not shocking; the two tan a ranch together for a while. Tbh, the more surprising thing was Ose jumping in the race in the first place.

[JMT]

I'm sorry if this previously came up (this is a long thread), but something I've been wondering: will the results of the replacement question be tallied and publicly released even if the recall fails?

[Greedo punched first]

I'm sorry if this previously came up (this is a long thread), but something I've been wondering: will the results of the replacement question be tallied and publicly released even if the recall fails?

I believe they will be released.

[DrScholl]

I'm sorry if this previously came up (this is a long thread), but something I've been wondering: will the results of the replacement question be tallied and publicly released even if the recall fails?

Yes.

[MT Treasurer]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

Yes, I expect 2024 to be the nadir in terms of how many governorships will be controlled by red state Democrats/blue state Republicans. Gubernatorial races becoming subject to the same nationalization/partisan voting patterns as Senate races will be one of the defining trends under Biden, especially with candidates unwilling to buck their party on anything of actual importance or being hilariously out of touch with the electorate at large (e.g. Elder).

[Greedo punched first]

Might Paffrath make the 2022 runoff if he does well in the replacement election?

[Torrain]

Has there been any word on how long it’s going to take to count the ballots?

And will results from both questions be announced together? If not, it opens up a bunch of concerning hypotheticals:

1. Elder clearly wins the most votes on the second question, but the first question is too close to call, leading to a situation reminiscent of 2020, where he runs around yelling about how the election is going to be rigged, now that he’s the one who would take over.
2. Newson is recalled, but irregularities delay announcement of the second question, throwing the state into chaos while they await announcement of the new Governor.

[President Johnson]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

Likely No/Newsom -> Safe Yes/Elder

[DrScholl]

With only two items on the ballot it shouldn't take results that long to come in. It would be surprising if county clerks weren't able to scan ballots very quickly.

[DaleCooper]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

Yes, I expect 2024 to be the nadir in terms of how many governorships will be controlled by red state Democrats/blue state Republicans. Gubernatorial races becoming subject to the same nationalization/partisan voting patterns as Senate races will be one of the defining trends under Biden, especially with candidates unwilling to buck their party on anything of actual importance or being hilariously out of touch with the electorate at large (e.g. Elder).

I agree. I expect 2022 to be defined by straight-ticket partisan voting like we've never seen before. 

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/herschelwalker/status/1434719242591490055?s=21

[Oryxslayer]

Has there been any word on how long it’s going to take to count the ballots?

And will results from both questions be announced together? If not, it opens up a bunch of concerning hypotheticals:

1. Elder clearly wins the most votes on the second question, but the first question is too close to call, leading to a situation reminiscent of 2020, where he runs around yelling about how the election is going to be rigged, now that he’s the one who would take over.
2. Newson is recalled, but irregularities delay announcement of the second question, throwing the state into chaos while they await announcement of the new Governor.

The two questions are on the same ballot and only fed into machines once under normal circumstances. One assumes and expects this means simultaneous release, it would under any other circumstance.

California is known now for its month-long vote counting process, but this is overblown. The majority of votes are there on election night - more do in this case thanks to the universal mail - and almost all straggler votes are counted by the next week. The month long count only matters if a race is narrow, as it is usually in races people pay attention to. Most important to projecting a race is the universe of remaining votes, and at the end of the night the counties will have an idea what that universe looks like. Decision desks then send those numbers through models and see if it is plausible for Yes - it will be Yes thanks to Trump changing voting habits and the Orange county data - to catch up. It likely will not. The situation that usually occurs is the statewide lead released on Election night immediately is proven by historical data to be insurmountable, and don't count out this also occuring, even if said lead is a little bit smaller than usual.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 5,420,220
Dems: 2,898,394 (53.5%)
Reps: 1,312,542 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,209,284 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (28%), Reps (25%), Ind/Other (18%)

Total ballots returned = 5,730,338
Dems: 3,051,561 (53.3%)
Reps: 1,399,655 (24.4%)
Ind/Other: 1,279,122 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (29%), Reps (26%), Ind/Other (20%)

Hey there, where are you getting this data and how does it compare to the eve of Election 2020?

https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-Special-Election-Tracker/

On the eve of Election 2020, it was

Total ballots returned = 12,090,534
Dems: 6,157,827 (50.9%)
Ind/Other: 2,977,358 (24.6%)
Reps: 2,955,528 (24.4%)

Turnout = Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

[Torrain]

Has there been any word on how long it’s going to take to count the ballots?

And will results from both questions be announced together? If not, it opens up a bunch of concerning hypotheticals:

1. Elder clearly wins the most votes on the second question, but the first question is too close to call, leading to a situation reminiscent of 2020, where he runs around yelling about how the election is going to be rigged, now that he’s the one who would take over.
2. Newson is recalled, but irregularities delay announcement of the second question, throwing the state into chaos while they await announcement of the new Governor.

The two questions are on the same ballot and only fed into machines once under normal circumstances. One assumes and expects this means simultaneous release, it would under any other circumstance.

California is known now for its month-long vote counting process, but this is overblown. The majority of votes are there on election night - more do in this case thanks to the universal mail - and almost all straggler votes are counted by the next week. The month long count only matters if a race is narrow, as it is usually in races people pay attention to. Most important to projecting a race is the universe of remaining votes, and at the end of the night the counties will have an idea what that universe looks like. Decision desks then send those numbers through models and see if it is plausible for Yes - it will be Yes thanks to Trump changing voting habits and the Orange county data - to catch up. It likely will not. The situation that usually occurs is the statewide lead released on Election night immediately is proven by historical data to be insurmountable, and don't count out this also occuring, even if said lead is a little bit smaller than usual.

Thanks, that’s a solid answer. Good to know that it’s probably going to be a fairly benign election night. I think I’m just paranoid after November last year and the time it takes to count Democratic primary votes, especially post-COVID.

[THG]

I still have Nuisance surviving by a 8-15 point margin or so. Of course, I never truly believed that this race would legitimately be competitive or close at any point, even when polls showed it tied.

[Calthrina950]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

Yes, I expect 2024 to be the nadir in terms of how many governorships will be controlled by red state Democrats/blue state Republicans. Gubernatorial races becoming subject to the same nationalization/partisan voting patterns as Senate races will be one of the defining trends under Biden, especially with candidates unwilling to buck their party on anything of actual importance or being hilariously out of touch with the electorate at large (e.g. Elder).

I agree. I expect 2022 to be defined by straight-ticket partisan voting like we've never seen before. 

Such polarization is a terrible thing for this country, but I think this is going to be the norm going forward.

[DaleCooper]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

Yes, I expect 2024 to be the nadir in terms of how many governorships will be controlled by red state Democrats/blue state Republicans. Gubernatorial races becoming subject to the same nationalization/partisan voting patterns as Senate races will be one of the defining trends under Biden, especially with candidates unwilling to buck their party on anything of actual importance or being hilariously out of touch with the electorate at large (e.g. Elder).

I agree. I expect 2022 to be defined by straight-ticket partisan voting like we've never seen before. 

Such polarization is a terrible thing for this country, but I think this is going to be the norm going forward.

It certainly is bad. The sad thing is that I really don't believe it would take all that much (in theory) to put a stop to this. I'm convinced that if one party truly committed to being a big tent party for reasonable people, we would start to see them make huge gains nationwide, including in states aligned with the opposite party. In practice, however, this can't happen because the base won't let it happen.