CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

My ballot showed up in the mail today, which was the first reminder in several months that a recall is even happening.

Here are my favorite non-Angelyne candidates in the Voter Information Guide For Confused & Very Concerned Californians:




Might as well install an actual Tankie to run Commiefornia.  I'll bet his managers at Walmart are very interested in his extracurricular activities.  They probably put up a sign in the break room saying "Don't talk to Dennis, and tell us if he tries talking to you about ANYTHING".




"I used to be addicted to drugs, but then I stopped!  I had a great job, but drugs.  Here is my education history as well: I earned a PhD in DRUGS."




And then everyone stood up and clapped.



And now the "A for Effort" gang:

Very strange that you got candidate statements, the LA county voter guide only had statements from newsom.

[PSOL]

As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

Nah, the only viable choice for good governance, which is what matters, is Kevin Faulconer, loath as I am to say that considering his recent salt over trailing Larry Elder.

[wbrocks67]

139,127 ballots returned

Democrats 86,139 (61.9%)
Ind/Other 30,054 (21.6%)
Republicans 22,934 (16.5%)

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1428375841877069833/photo/1

[Not Me, Us]

It really is a shame no viable Democrat other than Newsom is running in the recall. If I lived in California, I'd have to just vote no on recall and leave the replacement blank, since Newsom is somehow the best option.

[PSOL]

As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

Nah, the only viable choice for good governance, which is what matters, is Kevin Faulconer, loath as I am to say that considering his recent salt over trailing Larry Elder.

Arnold Schwarzenegger as a moderate Republican failed to do any governing. Given that both candidates mentioned have adequate executive experience and are not as gross as a suburban R, it’s clear what the sane choices are.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

Nah, the only viable choice for good governance, which is what matters, is Kevin Faulconer, loath as I am to say that considering his recent salt over trailing Larry Elder.

Arnold Schwarzenegger as a moderate Republican failed to do any governing. Given that both candidates mentioned have adequate executive experience and are not as gross as a suburban R, it’s clear what the sane choices are.

What if I’m a deranged California suburbanite that wants the insane option (Angelyne)?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

Nah, the only viable choice for good governance, which is what matters, is Kevin Faulconer, loath as I am to say that considering his recent salt over trailing Larry Elder.

Arnold Schwarzenegger as a moderate Republican failed to do any governing. Given that both candidates mentioned have adequate executive experience and are not as gross as a suburban R, it’s clear what the sane choices are.

Ah yes, because working at a Walmart and being a defense attorney are adequate executive experience to run California.Please, if you want to put inexperienced buffoons like those two in charge than you can't talk about Arnold, at least he was in charge of the council on fitness. Now running the second largest city in the state successfully, that's some actual experience. 

[Skye]

Elder’s ex-fiancee said he brandished a gun at her:

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1428431153174745092

Alexandra Datig, the former fiancee and longtime radio producer for California GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, says she broke off an 18-month engagement with the conservative talk show host in 2015 after he waved a gun at her while high on marijuana.

But little is known about Elder’s personal life. Datig portrayed him as a marijuana user who would often become threatening or insistent with her, including in his repeated demands that she get a “Larry’s Girl” tattoo to show her devotion to him.

what

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/19/elders-ex-fiancee-said-he-brandished-a-gun-at-her-506286

[Utah Neolib]

About the only thing I could possibly see Falcouner being good as for governor is maybe a springboard to bring the VP nominee in 2024. I doubt it though cause that’d be too smart for republicans

Or HUD Secretary

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

About the only thing I could possibly see Falcouner being good as for governor is maybe a springboard to bring the VP nominee in 2024. I doubt it though cause that’d be too smart for republicans

This (yes my own post)reminds me of a fake election results where Newsom appoints a caretaker, and a crowded democratic primary leads to two republicans one being Falcouner who wins

[Matty]

139,127 ballots returned

Democrats 86,139 (61.9%)
Ind/Other 30,054 (21.6%)
Republicans 22,934 (16.5%)

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1428375841877069833/photo/1

uhhh....this doesn't suggest a close race at all.

At all

[S019]

139,127 ballots returned

Democrats 86,139 (61.9%)
Ind/Other 30,054 (21.6%)
Republicans 22,934 (16.5%)

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1428375841877069833/photo/1

uhhh....this doesn't suggest a close race at all.

At all

Given the recall is polling around 54-46 or so, it's pretty clear that one of two things is true: either a large amount of Democrats intend to vote for recall or the polling samples were far less Democratic than the actual electorate and Newsom will coast as a result, I'd lean towards the first option being more true, though I could buy the second (especially since that SUSA poll had like a Biden+13 electorate)

[Xing]

139,127 ballots returned

Democrats 86,139 (61.9%)
Ind/Other 30,054 (21.6%)
Republicans 22,934 (16.5%)

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1428375841877069833/photo/1

uhhh....this doesn't suggest a close race at all.

At all

Given the recall is polling around 54-46 or so, it's pretty clear that one of two things is true: either a large amount of Democrats intend to vote for recall or the polling samples were far less Democratic than the actual electorate and Newsom will coast as a result, I'd lean towards the first option being more true, though I could buy the second (especially since that SUSA poll had like a Biden+13 electorate)

I’d say it’s probably a combination of both. Republicans will probably close the gap a bit, some Democrats will vote to recall, but Newsom will still overperform polls.

[Sestak]

At this point, Newsom has played his cards pretty much just how he needed to. He will be retained and it probably won’t be particularly close in the end.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So the recall is done for?

[Sir Mohamed]

At this point, Newsom has played his cards pretty much just how he needed to. He will be retained and it probably won’t be particularly close in the end.

I think likewise. If history is any guidance, the polls at this stage are not that reliable and as of recently I have heard people more talk about the effort. Other than my neighbor, who's always been a GOPer, I don't know anyone who's voting Yes, though I wouldn't use this as an indicator as I live in a Titanium D county.

The only reason this gets remotely close is very low turnout from Dems.

[Canis]

So the recall is done for?

No, but the EV numbers look horrible for it but so far its only like 130k ballots returned a lot of time for stuff to change.
Also saw my first sign for the recall it was for Elder and Yes on the Recall whoever placed it though put it in an unstable patch of dirt and it was partially bent over and you couldn't really read it unless you were right next to it lol.
Calmatters just released their interview with Elder btw

Also, the Sacramento Bee finally posted the second debate that happened at the beginning of this week

and the third debate happened last night as well Faulconer absolutely tore into Elder in this debate as well I think this is Faulconer trying to pick up Democrat and Independent voters because most Rs are behind Elder.

[DrScholl]

It can be hard to extrapolate much from the ballot return numbers, but Republicans generally return their ballots later and lag a lot in early returns. With that said if GOP enthusiasm is similar to that of a regular cycle then the chances of the recall prevailing are low.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think the tide is turning. Elder is starting to get scrutinized, and as the GOP's top contender to replace Newsom I'm seeing a lot more people (well, on the internet, so take that with a block of salt) start to finally take this race seriously and compare its urgency to that of Brexit. The only real way this recall would have succeeded would have been if California Democrats were apathetic, and that may not actually be the case anymore. 

[Joe Republic]

Republicans have also lost any remaining confidence in voting by mail over the past year, thanks to incessant lies told by a certain twice-impeached former president.

[Girlytree]

Vote by mail design flaw?

[Storr]

Vote by mail design flaw?

Evidently they're meant to help visual impaired voters find/see where to do sign the ballot. "They also serve as a visual check for elections officials to ensure that a ballot has not been left inside an envelope uncounted." I don't get this explanation because isn't it obvious whether an envelope has been opened or not? Some spokesperson then goes on to say voters can fold their ballots "another way" if they're concerned.

[Storr]

Vote by mail design flaw?

Evidently they're meant to help visual impaired voters find/see where to do sign the ballot. (Couldn't you just have large dark arrows pointing to where to sign, why holes?) "They also serve as a visual check for elections officials to ensure that a ballot has not been left inside an envelope uncounted." I don't get this explanation because isn't it obvious whether an envelope has been opened or not? Some spokesperson then goes on to say voters can fold their ballots "another way" if they're concerned.

[Minnesota Mike]

It can be hard to extrapolate much from the ballot return numbers, but Republicans generally return their ballots later and lag a lot in early returns. With that said if GOP enthusiasm is similar to that of a regular cycle then the chances of the recall prevailing are low.

Let's wait until more than 1% of ballots are returned before we start trying to draw conclusions.