CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In the Berkeley poll aren't his  approvals below pre covid levels? Also, I'd rather trust the poll with 10 times the number of takers, that was still conducted over the same period.

I take it you're not a believer in "throw it in the average"?

[coloradocowboi]

PPIC
January 21-31 (Last poll: November 4-23)
1,703 California residents (English & Spanish)

Newsom Job Approval

All Adults
Approve:  54%  (-4)
Disapprove:  36%  (-4)
N/A:  10%  (+9)

Likely Voters
Approve:  52%  (-7)
Disapprove:  43%  (+3)
N/A:  5%  (+4)

Basically, his approvals have fallen back down to his pre-COVID levels. PPIC's survey in early January 2020 had him 51-34 among all adults & 49-42 among likely voters.

And if you wanna compare recall to recall (despite the obvious differences in the electorate), Davis' PPIC approvals in February 2003 were 33-60 among adults & 24-72 among likely voters.


https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

Also of note is that only 70% of Democrats approve of Newsom. There is a sizable and vocal minority within the party that has been dissatisfied with him because they don't think he's been strict enough with COVID prevention. They won't oust him though, and should kinda be disregarded as part of his opposition because they aren't going to vote for Faulconer under any circumstances and will flock home to Newsom in a 1-1 matchup.

Newsom is only moderately popular, but his opposition is fractured. I am assuming he will both defeat the recall and win re-election in 22

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also of note is that only 70% of Democrats approve of Newsom. There is a sizable and vocal minority within the party that has been dissatisfied with him because they don't think he's been strict enough with COVID prevention. They won't oust him though, and should kinda be disregarded as part of his opposition because they aren't going to vote for Faulconer under any circumstances and will flock home to Newsom in a 1-1 matchup.

And I'd be one of them. I've been really disappointed since the summer at Newsom's increased kowtowing to business groups & Chamber of Commerce types in regards to reopening. The statewide orders have lost a lot of the meat that it had back in the spring.

But I'd still rather have that than the laissez-faire approach that could happen under Cox or Faulconer. Unless a prominent Democrat runs that promises a stricter protocol, I'm voting against the recall. And that's even without the possibility of things improving by the time of the vote.

If Newsom is up for recall, so should every County Sheriff & Supervisor that are scoffing & making a joke out of the COVID orders.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

In other news
 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/chamath-paliyhapita-says-hes-not-running-for-california-governor.html

[Mike Thick]

I'm frankly ambivalent on the recall. I don't like Gavin, which should be obvious if you've read anything else I've said in this thread. Blairite said it pretty well: we need someone who's going to at least take a potshot at solving CA's problems. I think we would have decent odds of replacing him with a better Democrat in a recall.

OTOH I'm worried that for better or worse, Dem fortunes are tied to him at this point, and spending months litigating all his issues is gonna hurt. Even if he wins, the difference between a D+25 and a D+15 environment heading into 2022 is potentially massive for legislative races.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm frankly ambivalent on the recall. I don't like Gavin, which should be obvious if you've read anything else I've said in this thread. Blairite said it pretty well: we need someone who's going to at least take a potshot at solving CA's problems. I think we would have decent odds of replacing him with a better Democrat in a recall.

I was ambivalent on recall but I've moved pretty strongly to "yes" on ethical grounds. I don't like Gavin, I've never liked Gavin, and I think lots of other people could do the job of governor more effectively. I also don't much like recall elections as a thing and I'm skeptical of overturning the mandate of voters. However, they're the law of the land and if it is ever appropriate to invoke them, it's in the case of gross incompetence and corruption. In my view, both of these apply to Gavin's actions. This election is just a question of basic fairness. Hopefully a serious Democrat will run a strong and reform-minded campaign instead of letting this turn into the absolute sh!tshow it could easily become.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I'm frankly ambivalent on the recall. I don't like Gavin, which should be obvious if you've read anything else I've said in this thread. Blairite said it pretty well: we need someone who's going to at least take a potshot at solving CA's problems. I think we would have decent odds of replacing him with a better Democrat in a recall.

OTOH I'm worried that for better or worse, Dem fortunes are tied to him at this point, and spending months litigating all his issues is gonna hurt. Even if he wins, the difference between a D+25 and a D+15 environment heading into 2022 is potentially massive for legislative races.

You've got amazing odds. Even in the sub 5% chance of a non dem victory, 2022 rolls around in less than a year

[prag_prog]

His approvals look ok...not great but not bad either
https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1357519201825603586

[Donerail]

Petition for title change to CA-GOV 2021 megathread

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1359554353388945409

[Mike Thick]

The troops are rallying, folks

https://twitter.com/Steve_Glazer/status/1359213158569709570?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Petition for title change to CA-GOV 2021 megathread

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1359554353388945409

Ehh, there's a bit of a weird thing going on. Because the campaign is removing all the junk signatures on their own , they have two numbers: the number of sigs they collected and the num they independently verified. This is why the signature verification rate has been unusually high right now, cause they have been removing all the obvious fakes/mistakes and the state only has to ensure its a real person.

Essentially we wait until the state verifies it, though they likely will hit it before the deadline in a few moths.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The troops are rallying, folks

/tweet

They've been rallying all week, folks

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-02-09/president-biden-opposes-recall-effort-gavin-newsom

[Mike Thick]

The troops are rallying, folks

/tweet

They've been rallying all week, folks

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-02-09/president-biden-opposes-recall-effort-gavin-newsom

I mean, this was one day before the Glazer video but point taken

[Mike Thick]

Grenell is in.

https://twitter.com/jeremybwhite/status/1360381761012658178?s=21

[brucejoel99]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

[Хahar 🤔]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

[DrScholl]

Should this recall go through it will just end up being a ridiculous re-fight of the presidential election with a Trump official on the ballot.

[brucejoel99]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

Expect the bolded assertions to change real quick if the recall is actually triggered & a nicely-timed poll or 2 shows up spewing a headline about Newsom being "in trouble" or something along those lines.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

You expecting Democrats to vote No on Recall and simply leave the replacement question blank? Because I'm sure as hell voting for a Democrat even while voting No

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How many candidates do we think run? I'm guessing around 50, a lot fewer than the 135 of 2003. That's not counting Davis or write-ins.

[tosk]

Grenell is in.

https://twitter.com/jeremybwhite/status/1360381761012658178?s=21

pain

[Хahar 🤔]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

You expecting Democrats to vote No on Recall and simply leave the replacement question blank? Because I'm sure as hell voting for a Democrat even while voting No

Yes, that is exactly what is going to happen. Consider why Cruz Bustamante didn't win in 2003.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

You expecting Democrats to vote No on Recall and simply leave the replacement question blank? Because I'm sure as hell voting for a Democrat even while voting No

Yes, that is exactly what is going to happen. Consider why Cruz Bustamante didn't win in 2003.

The Recall portion had ~430,000 blank or invalid votes

The Replacement portion had ~755,000 blank or invalid votes

So, at best, 325,000 Democrats didn’t vote in the replacement portion.

Schwarzenegger beat Bustamante by a margin of 1,500,000 votes.

[Mike Thick]

CA is also more Democratic now than in 2003, and the Republican field will be more split.

Flip side is that even as we’re closing in on the signatures, increasingly clear that without some kind of black swan event the actual recall will fail. That means no Bustamante-tier (lol) Democrats are likely to even bother

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will win comfortably, he only loses in an R 5 wave just like Pat Quinn lost in 2014/ in an R 5 wave

WC males are fueling this Recall effort, Newsome support among Females  and Minorities  is solid and nowhere near Gray Davis support

Gray Davis lost due to Latinos going to Arnie.