Yahoo News/YouGov: Biden +6

[Person Man]

Only 3% of Trump voters believe Biden is more likely to win the election. The nation is full of SN/OP's who are not going to accept the results of this election.

It might just come down to who people are afraid of more. If the election is that one sided, people are going to feel silenced.

[wbrocks67]

Also a vast majority of people who could change their mind are backing Trump.

There’s 12% undecided still

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’ll take a few weeks to know if this is a convention bump (such things should not be celebrated as they are inherently temporary) or a genuine shift as a result of the rhetoric around protests. It could also just be noise - that’s unlikely, but there haven’t been many post-RNC polls yet.

[Person Man]

It’ll take a few weeks to know if this is a convention bump (such things should not be celebrated as they are inherently temporary) or a genuine shift as a result of the rhetoric around protests. It could also just be noise - that’s unlikely, but there haven’t been many post-RNC polls yet.

So it’s either noise, a temporary bump, or Trump has found his winning issue the way Bush found Iraq or Obama healthcare.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Red avatars pretending it's not happening. Again.

[wbrocks67]

It’s funny how many people are ignoring the USC poll which was shown little movement and has tracked all during the RNC...

[UncleSam]

Godawful poll for Biden considering this is a poll of US Adults. Trump always does better in RV and especially LV screens so this implies the race is actually competitive if the election happens during an upswing for Trump. I'd expect this poll to bounce back to Biden +9 or so in a week or two once the bounce wears off.

Current projection: Biden +4, Biden 280-Trump 260.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Godawful poll for Biden considering this is a poll of US Adults. Trump always does better in RV and especially LV screens so this implies the race is actually competitive if the election happens during an upswing for Trump. I'd expect this poll to bounce back to Biden +9 or so in a week or two once the bounce wears off.

Current projection: Biden +4, Biden 280-Trump 260.

Dont you realize Early voting is about to start and Ds will have a substantial pad for Biden among females and minorities

[Gass3268]

Red avatars pretending it's not happening. Again.

Ignoring a small convention bump?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Godawful poll for Biden considering this is a poll of US Adults. Trump always does better in RV and especially LV screens so this implies the race is actually competitive if the election happens during an upswing for Trump. I'd expect this poll to bounce back to Biden +9 or so in a week or two once the bounce wears off.

Current projection: Biden +4, Biden 280-Trump 260.

No it's not. The 47-41 result is based off of registered voters

[wbrocks67]

Are y’all ignoring the fact that this isn’t a new poll of completely new people but a repoll of people in July? Totally within the MoE

[Suburbia]

Red avatars pretending it's not happening. Again.

This.

Biden is comfortably ahead, but he cannot BE COMPLACENT.

He should campaign in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, Harris campaign in NC/GA/AZ/OH.

[n1240]

Have there been any other polls where Biden underperforms GCB (47 vs 49 here)?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Red avatars pretending it's not happening. Again.

So, if we don't buy some big Trump bump when his approval rating is stable or actually falling (according to this very poll), then we are in ignorance of reality?

Approval rating has been the single most important factor in determining a President's re-election chances for the past few decades at least.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Red avatars pretending it's not happening. Again.

I'm not saying it's not happening. I'm saying we don't yet know what, exactly, is happening. It looks like a Trump bump, but not one to be especially confident about just yet.

Today's USC/Dornlife 7-day tracker tracked no change in the traditional voting sample and Trump+1% in the probabilistic voting sample, FWIW.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Red avatars pretending it's not happening. Again.

What? A Trump bump after the RNC? Because I predicted the post-RNC margin to be Biden+5

I'll stay pessimistic and say a net Trump gain of 3%.

From a 50-42 race to a 49-44 race. Anything more would be make me a little anxious before September 29

[Horus]

This fatalist told you so.

[politicallefty]

How about we wait for some more polls? I think almost all of the top tier polls are due and should be coming out next and probably even more after Labor Day. I wouldn't be surprised if some news organizations wait until after Labor Day, although it is quite late this year.

[Devils30]

This isn’t Exactly a new poll - they reinterviewed a previous group of people from a July poll that had Biden +9. Also there is more undecideds in this than recent ones and trump still only at 41.

Meanwhile if Biden’s fav is -2 and Trumps is -13 after the RNC, this isn’t gonna happen for trump. Meanwhile the GCB is D+11 which says that a lot of the undecideds swing Dem.

So this is the same group re-interviewed? I would probably trash it then. That aspect negates the randomized factor a good poll has.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Like I said in the Morning Consult poll thread, I am going to try and be level-headed about this. After all, this poll is more of a mixed bag than something outright horrible for Biden. Biden still leads by a fair amount, Trump's number here is still pretty terrible and consistent with other polls, and somehow Trump's approval has also somehow managed to go down even as he gained ground in this poll.

But on the other hand; Biden is also below 50%, his and Harris' favorabilities have fallen too, and that suburb shift shown is the stuff of nightmares. It's almost worse that this poll is more of a decline for Biden than a gain for Trump because it suggests that our country is still full of easily distracted idiots and willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt when it comes to defining his opponent and distracting voters with the shiny objects he prefers to talk about instead of the real issues plaguing this country under his watch, and of his own doing.

 This had better prove to be an outlier if we get better quality polls this week otherwise it's going to be another miserable week where I try my damnedest  to avoid the news media and their horse-race talk. But even then, the fact that the voters Biden lost became undecided instead of going outright to Trump could indicate that he can win them back. But, on the other hand again, it isn't such a good thing that Biden's support is softer than it had appeared after all these months.

I really don't know what to think now. I hate this uncertainty and I miss the race's previous stability. Hopefully Trump very visibly f***s up again soon in a way voters respond to, and negates any movement he may be seeing. It's bound to happen again soon enough, right? How many times have we been through this? Or am I just lying to myself so that I can feel better?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Like I said in the Morning Consult poll thread, I am going to try an be level-headed about this. After all, this poll is more of a mixed bag than something outright horrible for Biden. Biden still leads by a fair amount, Trump's number here is still pretty terrible and consistent with other polls, and somehow Trump's approval has also somehow managed to go down even as he gained ground in this poll.

But on the other hand; Biden is also below 50%, his and Harris' favorabilities have fallen too, and that suburb shift shown is the stuff of nightmares. It's almost worse that this poll is more of a decline for Biden than a gain for Trump because it suggests that our country is still full of easily distracted idiots and willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt when it comes to defining his opponent and distracting voters with the shiny objects he prefers to talk about instead of the real issues plaguing this country under his watch, and of his own doing.

 This had better prove to be an outlier if we get better quality polls this week otherwise it's going to be another miserable week where I try my damnedest  to avoid the news media and their horse-race talk. But even then, the fact that the voters Biden lost became undecided instead of going outright to Trump could indicate that he can win them back. But, on the other hand again, it isn't such a good thing that Biden's support is softer than it had appeared after all these months.

I really don't know what to think now. I hate this uncertainty and I miss the race's previous stability. Hopefully Trump very visibly f***s up again soon in a way voters respond to, and negates any movement he may be seeing. It's bound to happen again soon enough, right? How many times have we been through this? Or am I just lying to myself so that I can feel better?

I know you're a pessimist, but how about waiting another week when we'll have more than 2 polls within 2 days of the RNC before assuming that Biden's campaign is crumbling to dust

[Progressive Pessimist]

Like I said in the Morning Consult poll thread, I am going to try an be level-headed about this. After all, this poll is more of a mixed bag than something outright horrible for Biden. Biden still leads by a fair amount, Trump's number here is still pretty terrible and consistent with other polls, and somehow Trump's approval has also somehow managed to go down even as he gained ground in this poll.

But on the other hand; Biden is also below 50%, his and Harris' favorabilities have fallen too, and that suburb shift shown is the stuff of nightmares. It's almost worse that this poll is more of a decline for Biden than a gain for Trump because it suggests that our country is still full of easily distracted idiots and willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt when it comes to defining his opponent and distracting voters with the shiny objects he prefers to talk about instead of the real issues plaguing this country under his watch, and of his own doing.

 This had better prove to be an outlier if we get better quality polls this week otherwise it's going to be another miserable week where I try my damnedest  to avoid the news media and their horse-race talk. But even then, the fact that the voters Biden lost became undecided instead of going outright to Trump could indicate that he can win them back. But, on the other hand again, it isn't such a good thing that Biden's support is softer than it had appeared after all these months.

I really don't know what to think now. I hate this uncertainty and I miss the race's previous stability. Hopefully Trump very visibly f***s up again soon in a way voters respond to, and negates any movement he may be seeing. It's bound to happen again soon enough, right? How many times have we been through this? Or am I just lying to myself so that I can feel better?

I know you're a pessimist, but how about waiting another week when we'll have more than 2 polls before assuming that this race is sharply heading in Trump's direction (Or not. You're really covering yourself in both sides)

Well yeah, as I said I am of two-minds when it comes to this and learned some lessons in months past about this race. I just hate the suspense of waiting for confirmation or not.

[Annatar]

What kind of poll is this, a 41D/24R split, a +17D electorate, in the 2016 vote, Clinton voters outnumbering Trump voters 325 to 220, 40% to 27%, a 13% gap, doesn't YouGov say they weight their polls by past vote.

[Xing]

You all know that it’s possible to say that Biden is ahead/favored and not write off Trump winning as a possibility, right?

[UncleSam]

Godawful poll for Biden considering this is a poll of US Adults. Trump always does better in RV and especially LV screens so this implies the race is actually competitive if the election happens during an upswing for Trump. I'd expect this poll to bounce back to Biden +9 or so in a week or two once the bounce wears off.

Current projection: Biden +4, Biden 280-Trump 260.

No it's not. The 47-41 result is based off of registered voters

Could you share your source? It says ‘1,001 US Adults’ at the top of all of the opening slides, including the one with the 47-41 result.