Pasco County (FL) - St. Pete Polls: Trump +17

[Tender Branson]

56.7% Trump
39.4% Biden

This was Trump +21.4 in 2016.

A 4% swing to Biden.

Pasco has ca. 550.000 inhabitants and is north of Tampa.

This poll of 1,040 likely Pasco County, Florida voters was conducted on August 27, 2020. This poll used the registered voter lists supplied by the state of Florida as of August 4, 2020.

The sample of voters that were contacted included random samples of registered voters within the boundaries of Pasco County, Florida.

The issues surveyed included questions related to the General election in Pasco County, Florida.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_Pasco_August27_K5TMZ9.pdf

[BlueSwan]

Eh...a 4% swing to Biden is OK, I guess, but pretty weak compared to the swings we’ve seen in other district polls, which are very often double digits.

[Person Man]

It's a place that is trending for the alt-right, but maybe there are more suburban-like situations popping up there, too.  I still feel that a 4 point swing in Pasco is good. Then again, its about what Gillum got. It a good sign if there really are moderate Cuban Republicans who vote Democrat for president.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Eh...a 4% swing to Biden is OK, I guess, but pretty weak compared to the swings we’ve seen in other district polls, which are very often double digits.

IIRC, Pasco is a very Trumpy place. Not hard to imagine that Biden barely makes any headway here.

[Horus]

I wouldn't expect Biden to improve on Hillary much here. Pasco is very white, very old (with more retirees coming in of course) and surprisingly wwc for Florida.

[Person Man]

I wouldn't expect Biden to improve on Hillary much here. Pasco is very white, very old (with more retirees coming in of course) and surprisingly wwc for Florida.

“Dixiecrats”

[Horus]

I wouldn't expect Biden to improve on Hillary much here. Pasco is very white, very old (with more retirees coming in of course) and surprisingly wwc for Florida.

“Dixiecrats”

Not long ago this county was more Dem than Hillsborough.

[slothdem]

A 4-point improvement is a big deal since it arrests the R swing the county. This would be a fantastic result for Biden.

[Person Man]

A 4-point improvement is a big deal since it arrests the R swing the county. This would be a fantastic result for Biden.

If people turn out in Miami.

[Alcibiades]

I wouldn't expect Biden to improve on Hillary much here. Pasco is very white, very old (with more retirees coming in of course) and surprisingly wwc for Florida.

“Dixiecrats”

Not long ago this county was more Dem than Hillsborough.

It actually voted for Gore.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A 4-point improvement is a big deal since it arrests the R swing the county. This would be a fantastic result for Biden.

It really is something of "Arrested Development" *wink*

[Devils30]

it's not a bad poll for Trump, within the margin of error of his 2016. However, I would like to see polls of places like Sarasota, Collier, Seminole...the spots you wonder where Biden could get a swing with college educated whites.

[DrScholl]

He should be expanding his support to +25 to +30 to +40 in places like that, not decreasing.

[TML]

Remember that the 2018 results here for Senate, Governor, and Agricultural Commissioner were R+15, R+16, and R+14 respectively.

[Roll Roons]

Remember that the 2018 results here for Senate, Governor, and Agricultural Commissioner were R+15, R+16, and R+14 respectively.

In that case, this is a decent poll for Biden. He will likely do much better than Gillum or Nelson in Miami-Dade, while roughly matching their numbers in the rest of the state.

[Person Man]

Remember that the 2018 results here for Senate, Governor, and Agricultural Commissioner were R+15, R+16, and R+14 respectively.

In that case, this is a decent poll for Biden. He will likely do much better than Gillum or Nelson in Miami-Dade, while roughly matching their numbers in the rest of the state.

That’s what I’m hoping. Hillary lost when people stayed home downstate.

[Podgy the Bear]

He should be expanding his support to +25 to +30 to +40 in places like that, not decreasing.

The idolatry for Trump in a county like Pasco should be at hysterical levels.  If he is only +17 at this stage, this doesn't speak well for his winning statewide.

[Person Man]

He should be expanding his support to +25 to +30 to +40 in places like that, not decreasing.

The idolatry for Trump in a county like Pasco should be at hysterical levels.  If he is only +17 at this stage, this doesn't speak well for his winning statewide.

It was also taken during the height of the convention and would translate to a 7% NPV for Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

Eh...a 4% swing to Biden is OK, I guess, but pretty weak compared to the swings we’ve seen in other district polls, which are very often double digits.

IIRC, Pasco is a very Trumpy place. Not hard to imagine that Biden barely makes any headway here.

Yes, this is an emerging GOP base county in FL.

[Use Your Illusion]

As someone living in Pasco I am genuinely shocked to see the number that low. I thought that +20 was going to be the low water mark. In 2016 you couldn't even so much as find a HRC bumper sticker in your local Walmart parking lot. Go down any road and you'd see a "T R U M P" sign as big as a ing car and even to this day you'll see people handing out Trump merch that sells like hotcakes. Hell they've been selling it his whole first term.

Now, these days once in a while you'll see some visible support for Biden. Nothing special but it's a palpable heartbeat. I'm just surprised that given everything I can see, the Trump support has still actually gone down

[Use Your Illusion]

He should be expanding his support to +25 to +30 to +40 in places like that, not decreasing.

The idolatry for Trump in a county like Pasco should be at hysterical levels.  If he is only +17 at this stage, this doesn't speak well for his winning statewide.

The only explanation I can come up with is that the hysteria peaked and there just hasn't been any real new growth. Because if you strolled through here you'd think you were in +25 territory. Hell my old neighbor does the whole "TRUMP WAS SENT FROM GOD!" thing daily on facebook.


People are ing nuts down here man. I cannot believe it's only +17. I reaaaalllllyyyyy hope we can get another poll. This feels TOO GOOD to be true.


Someone inject that +17 into my veins like NOW

[Podgy the Bear]

He should be expanding his support to +25 to +30 to +40 in places like that, not decreasing.

The idolatry for Trump in a county like Pasco should be at hysterical levels.  If he is only +17 at this stage, this doesn't speak well for his winning statewide.

The only explanation I can come up with is that the hysteria peaked and there just hasn't been any real new growth. Because if you strolled through here you'd think you were in +25 territory. Hell my old neighbor does the whole "TRUMP WAS SENT FROM GOD!" thing daily on facebook.


People are ing nuts down here man. I cannot believe it's only +17. I reaaaalllllyyyyy hope we can get another poll. This feels TOO GOOD to be true.


Someone inject that +17 into my veins like NOW

Tampa Bay is our second home--with family in Pasco and we know the area very well.  I saw all of this in 2016 and through the last few years.  But we haven't been back since the pandemic started.  I have to think that some of those Trumpistas who think Trump can do no wrong are starting to have second thoughts.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

He should be expanding his support to +25 to +30 to +40 in places like that, not decreasing.

The idolatry for Trump in a county like Pasco should be at hysterical levels.  If he is only +17 at this stage, this doesn't speak well for his winning statewide.

The only explanation I can come up with is that the hysteria peaked and there just hasn't been any real new growth. Because if you strolled through here you'd think you were in +25 territory. Hell my old neighbor does the whole "TRUMP WAS SENT FROM GOD!" thing daily on facebook.


People are ing nuts down here man. I cannot believe it's only +17. I reaaaalllllyyyyy hope we can get another poll. This feels TOO GOOD to be true.


Someone inject that +17 into my veins like NOW

Does he get the" STOP THE DEMOCRAT PARTY ANTIFA TERROROSTS FROM SHOOTING OUR BABIES STRAIGHT OUT OF THE WOMB!" mailers?

(and again, my fellow blues, yes - - I've seen some pretty ridiculous progressive mailers, too.  TRUMP WANTS TO BRONG BACK THE DRAFT is my favorite). 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Eh...a 4% swing to Biden is OK, I guess, but pretty weak compared to the swings we’ve seen in other district polls, which are very often double digits.

IIRC, Pasco is a very Trumpy place. Not hard to imagine that Biden barely makes any headway here.

Exurban areas like Pasco are the core of Trumpism in FL, not the rural areas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump can still pull of the win, in FL and NC, but as in TX and LA, as I stated before, he has to see if a Hurricane comes and causes damage, and we have 75 percent of the Hurricane season left. He is getting high praise for his quick response to Laura