NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

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Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I hope the silent majority in NYC shows up to vote in this primary and rejects this kind of thinking. The renaissance in NYC of the last decade, with capital, wealth, and new residents flowing into the area, happened as a direct result of lowering crime and pro-development policies, and people like Wiley just want to throw all that away in the name of wokeness. It cannot possibly be true that New Yorkers actually want their city to go back to the way it was in the 1970's and 1980's. It should help that moderates who would have registered as Republicans in the past are probably registered as Democrats now.

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Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I hope the silent majority in NYC shows up to vote in this primary and rejects this kind of thinking. The renaissance in NYC of the last decade, with capital, wealth, and new residents flowing into the area, happened as a direct result of lowering crime and pro-development policies, and people like Wiley just want to throw all that away in the name of wokeness. It cannot possibly be true that New Yorkers actually want their city to go back to the way it was in the 1970's and 1980's. It should help that moderates who would have registered as Republicans in the past are probably registered as Democrats now.

I never took you for a anti-poor type guy.

No, NYC is not in a Renaissance right now. New York is an unlivable mess due to the housing crisis. And it's mostly thanks to people like Stephen Ross, responsible for the Hudson Yards abortion, building luxury housing and condos everywhere to make maximum profit instead of badly needed high density housing that would actually keep up with the demand. It's happening to some extent in every city, but New York needs to be different to adapt and continue being a mecca for everyone who wants to come. And not just spoiled brats with daddy's credit card, Chinese tourists, and Google employees.

These "spoiled brats" you refer to are the ones driving wealth and capital into the NYC area, turning it around from the 1970's and 80's when NYC was a wasteland. The predicted 2020 Armageddon in state and municipal revenues didn't happen at all in this area largely because these white collar industries you hate (law firms, financial services, IT companies, etc) ran just fine WFH and in the case of financial services, made a killing. It's not their fault the government wastes the tax revenues being ineffective and/or corrupt, or making bad tax deals with developers, or not revaluing properties regularly which would raise property tax revenues.

Speaking of anti-poor, I can't think of anything more anti-poor than abolishing the police, which is what Wiley wants. Nobody wants more crime in their neighborhood. Rich people can move out to NJ or Westchester or Long Island and drive to work, but poor people have to actually live amidst the crime.

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I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

I want to believe but it sounds like copium to me

Particularly assuming 10% exhaustion. For example in the 2018 ME-2 house race, the rate of ballot exhaustion in the ranked choice was 35.2%, there was a Republican and a Democrat to choose from, and the independents may have even openly told their voters to put the Dem second. It's definitely much better to have the lead in hand than to hope for others' lower preferences.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Maine

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New York will finally have a mayor who truly understands the experience of everyday New Yorkers who, like him, commute in from their home in New Jersey.

Being one such person, I'm well aware that New Yorkers look down on tourists and commuters, but perhaps they should realize that we are a huge net positive for the city. We patronize NYC businesses, work for NYC firms, in almost all cases pay NY state tax since it's higher than NJ and CT, and the only way we use city services is public transit, and that may even be cancelled out by those of us who drive. If the tourists and commuters vanished NYC would be a lot poorer.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Grace4NY/status/1456284647781019652

Seems like Adams lost a lot of Asian ADs

Big deep dive in The City about Silwa's performance among Chinese voters. Silwa got 44% of the vote in precincts where more than half of residents are Asian, which is a better performance than enclaves for every other group. Lot of focus on issues like SHSAT and crime, ofc, but there's a foregrounding of fights over homeless shelter and jail locations which remind a lot about fights over similar issues in LA's Koreatown and Irvine.

Progressive Dems are blaming this on "misinformation on WeChat" now are totally missing the boat. The campaign is not misinformation, it is a legitimate message against the de Blasio administration which has embraced as its official policy just about every bullet point on that Sliwa poster. It's no wonder Asians in NYC are turning against them, and if the Dem candidate were not Eric Adams, who is not progressive and has disavowed many of de Blasio's stances, on Stuyvesant HS and policing in particular, the hemorrhaging would have been even worse.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Grace4NY/status/1456284647781019652

Seems like Adams lost a lot of Asian ADs

Big deep dive in The City about Silwa's performance among Chinese voters. Silwa got 44% of the vote in precincts where more than half of residents are Asian, which is a better performance than enclaves for every other group. Lot of focus on issues like SHSAT and crime, ofc, but there's a foregrounding of fights over homeless shelter and jail locations which remind a lot about fights over similar issues in LA's Koreatown and Irvine.

Progressive Dems are blaming this on "misinformation on WeChat" now are totally missing the boat. The campaign is not misinformation, it is a legitimate message against the de Blasio administration which has embraced as its official policy just about every bullet point on that Sliwa poster. It's no wonder Asians in NYC are turning against them, and if the Dem candidate were not Eric Adams, who is not progressive and has disavowed many of de Blasio's stances, on Stuyvesant HS and policing in particular, the hemorrhaging would have been even worse.

I noticed there was some Twitter pushback against some of the statements in that pro-Sliwa Chinese-language poster. The Chinese equivalent to “Racial preference, discrimination, divide America” literally contains the phrase “black people first, Asian people last”- which is itself incredibly divisive and an affront to the Asians (Chinese or otherwise) who backed Adams in the primary.

But I agree with your overall point. There was always going to be some level of pushback against the local Dems among the Chinese enclaves regardless of who was on the ballot.

Generally agree with this, but also want to add that some of the things on that poster don’t really have an easy answer for Dems progressives and though I’m far from an expert on Chinese-American politics, reflect real divisions within the community beyond the activist-normie divide that’s discussed so much. E.g. just considering the demographics of all immigrant communities in NYC, I’d have to imagine that lenient policies towards illegal immigrants have a strong pull for some Asians. Same with homeless shelters and similar battles over the development of ‘undesirable’ projects which have to go somewhere assuming you want to exist (jails, needle exchange sites, pot stores, etc.).

I can read that poster too, and I agree, that line is quite nasty and is basically divide and conquer politics pitting one minority group against another. But to focus on that one line in one poster would be missing the boat on the very real grievances the Asian community has against de Blasio. The move to cancel Stuyvesant HS is an anti-Asian measure, pure and simple, and de Blasio showed a disgusting lack of support for Asian groups when they were targeted for violence last year and has embraced several policies, such as hosting homeless people in hotels, ending cash bail i.e. catch and release, and standing down the police, which have directly caused or contributed to the violence. To many Asian people "BLM" and "Defund the Police" meant giving thugs, many of them black, carte blanche to beat them up, rob them, and loot their property. Honestly I don't think immigration has much to do with it since the mayor of NYC doesn't have much authority on that anyway.

[compucomp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Grace4NY/status/1456284647781019652

Seems like Adams lost a lot of Asian ADs

Big deep dive in The City about Silwa's performance among Chinese voters. Silwa got 44% of the vote in precincts where more than half of residents are Asian, which is a better performance than enclaves for every other group. Lot of focus on issues like SHSAT and crime, ofc, but there's a foregrounding of fights over homeless shelter and jail locations which remind a lot about fights over similar issues in LA's Koreatown and Irvine.

Progressive Dems are blaming this on "misinformation on WeChat" now are totally missing the boat. The campaign is not misinformation, it is a legitimate message against the de Blasio administration which has embraced as its official policy just about every bullet point on that Sliwa poster. It's no wonder Asians in NYC are turning against them, and if the Dem candidate were not Eric Adams, who is not progressive and has disavowed many of de Blasio's stances, on Stuyvesant HS and policing in particular, the hemorrhaging would have been even worse.

This is verifiably untrue
Lander and Williams are both over performing Adams right now

This is misleading, the mayor ballot had several progressive candidates while the other offices did not, and in the other offices the Conservative party got 6% of the votes for whatever reason. If you total up the number of votes on the left and right, all the offices would be around 70-30.

Also we were discussing Asian groups specifically and there isn't enough information on the other offices to say whether those candidates did better or worse.