NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

Tremendous new poll!

Yang 26
Adams 13
Stringer 11
Wiley 10
Donovan 7
McGuire 6
Garcia 4
Morales 3

Yang 61
Stringer 39

Yang 59
Adams 41

Yang 68
Wiley 32

Yang 73
Donovan 27

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https://twitter.com/ZachandMattShow/status/1383909631278206978?s=19

Looks like it's time for some consolidation.

No surprise to see Morales not existing in this demographic. In fact I'm starting to think she doesn't exist at all.

No... that can’t be right... I see her posters all over the place in the neighborhoods where all the gentrifiers who pretend to hate gentrification live. 🤔

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Yang says he will second pref Kathryn Garcia
https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-edit-seconds-20210421-un7p7vgybzd5phbb3vn7dip6gm-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Yang as Mayor and Garcia actually running things as deputy mayor would be the best case scenario at this point IMO.

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Yang is going to have the near unanimous block vote of Asians and Orthodox Jews (see Tweet above). Not sure a couple of newspaper endorsements are going to be able to stop him.

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https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1397282591745744900?s=20
Yang's response to a racist political cartoon depicting him as a tourist.

Good for Yang. The media and the “progressive” “left” have been running a nakedly xenophobic and racist campaign against him since he announced. I’m surprised no one has demanded to see his birth certificate yet.

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This reads like a parody.
https://twitter.com/dianne4nyc/status/1397545167587057670?s=21

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This also reads like a parody. Throw everyone involved in this campaign in a volcano IMO.

https://twitter.com/mayoralesunion/status/1398037672019496966

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The Washington Square Park thing is obviously deranged and needs to stop. If you require peace and quiet at all hours of the day maybe don’t live next to a park surrounded by college student housing in the middle of New York City? Go move to New Jersey or something?

None of this means we should implement public safety austerity that would primarily hurt poor and minority communities though, as the far left continues to advocate for.

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Looks like the primary is coming down to a choice between a mayor who will be beholden to the activist industrial complex (Wiley) or a mayor who will be beholden to our city's most corrupt and pernicious unions and public sector thugs (Adams). Yikes.

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Why do so many people have Shaun Donovan in their top five? Other than when he didn't know how much a house costs, I haven't heard a single thing about him.

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"Progressive" activists and the media were too busy destroying Yang to care about the insane right-wing things Adam was saying a few months ago.

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Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

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My final ballot:

1) Prince
2) Chang
3) Garcia
4) Yang
5) Wiley

Unfortunately, it looks like the corrupt racist lunatic will win here. RIP New York City — and with it, likely, the United States.

[Lief 🗽]

"Each week following the election, the votes will be tabulated. The candidate with the lowest number of first-choice votes will be eliminated, and that candidate’s votes are redistributed to each voter’s second-choice candidate, and so on until only two candidates remain. It's unclear how long it will take to count ballots, so it's uncertain how soon a winner can be declared."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/nyc-primary-elections-mayoral-race-2021/h_516c2954bc98b52cf65cc705b9098edb

So is each round going to happen weekly or is this article just being vague?

Wait, what?  Is it not instant runoff?  This election is going to continue for months?  That can't be right.  Am I totally out of the loop on this?

It is IRV, but our city is run by corrupt incompetents, so figuring out the winner, something that should be finished in at most 24 hours, will instead take weeks.

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If Adams initially leads but loses the final round, does he say the election was stolen? Of course the whole point of IRV is that it might give a different winner.

Probably (he’s already responded to the perfectly normal thing of candidates endorsing each other by comparing it to Jim Crow) but luckily there’s not really anything he can do but whine about it.

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Adams will be beholden to the corrupt union and machine thugs.

Wiley will be beholden to the activist industrial complex.

I chose Wiley over him for the fifth place spot because she is not a racist lunatic as far as I can tell, but she would still be a horrible mayor IMO.

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Is there a good results map somewhere? Don't want to give money to the N*w Y*rk T*mes.

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Looks like a solid Adams win. The polls were right. RIP.

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Reynoso dominating in the Brooklyn Borough President race. Beautiful.

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lmao at the very clear divide between downscale white libs and upscale white libs reflected in the Wiley/Garcia results in Brooklyn

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THE PEOPLE WANT BRAGG. THE PEOPLE WANT BRAGG.


Also can someone please link the website where you're getting map results.

with thanks to realisticidealist: https://rrhelections.com/

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I suppose one benefit for Garcia is that I imagine not many people are ranking her below Adams unless he is their #1?

There may be a lot of black Wiley-Adams-Garcia voters who are anti-Yang.

Although having seen the precinct map on RRH, I think a larger than expected portion of Wiley voters are white, and most of the rest are young and/or highly educated, which all bodes better than pre-election polls for Wiley-Garcia anti-Adams transfers.

I do think Garcia will win a majority of the transfers, but probably not by enough. Making up a 5+ point lead in IRV is pretty hard without more explicit, organized cooperation agreements, and the Yang-Garcia team up probably came too late (plus much of Yang's vote will go to Adams anyway because of his Orthodox support).

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I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

This is not that unlikely IMO. Adams will win a significant share of Yang's support, as he'll be getting close to 100% of his Orthodox voters' second preferences.

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Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.

[Lief 🗽]

RIP.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1407556900779008000