NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Duke of York]

The NYCGOP is not relevant in this election, it's only a question of who they chose to get 25% to 30%

I wouldnt say that. Republicans have won before in NYC. Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Guliani were Republicans.

[Duke of York]

I'm pulling for McGuire but either this thing is safely Yang's or RCV is gonna cause something wild to happen.

All polls ive seen show Yang winning once preferences are factored in.

[Duke of York]

It's not a lock for Yang just yet, though obviously he is in a very good position right now.

He is still the frontrunner but Adams has clear momentum right now and could pull it off.

[Duke of York]

It's not a lock for Yang just yet, though obviously he is in a very good position right now.

He is still the frontrunner but Adams has clear momentum right now and could pull it off.

As Of the latest poll it seems like a possibility.

[Duke of York]

Thank God I won't be living in NYC for the next four years. I mean, I love this city, but if it's gonna Adams or Yang. Good god.

Eric Adams literally wants to end summer vacation and establish online school with 300-400 kids to a teacher.

source? I very much doubt that would get much support.

[Duke of York]

I fully expect Adams to win. The only union thats going to be ride or die with Stringer is the UFT. Rest are going to Adams.

HTC (hotel workers, very very close w De Blasio) are spending buckets of cash to shore up Adams among Hispanic voters. Baffling to me that Morales has been leaving that constituency wide open but her campaign is run by morons.

I hope Adams wins. Yang doesn't have the experience to be mayor.

[Duke of York]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

Eric Adams brand of the NYC Democratic right is much more in tune with the New York Post than Yang's.

Which is why there is a possibility that Adams could win Staten Island in November---being the first Democrat to carry SI since Ed Koch in 1985....He is not going to be Dinkinsed, something that has stained citywide Democrats like Mark Green, Fernando Ferrer, Bill Thompson, and others...

How likely do you think it is he gets the nomination?

[Duke of York]

She went from 8% in the last Memerson to 21% two weeks later. Puts her on pace to take 47% of the vote four days from now. Great honer

and win outright on the 22nd.

[Duke of York]

I hope Yang wins because the only people more obnoxious than Yang Gang guys are New Yorkers whining that he's not ~New York~ enough or whatever. Literally the most annoying people in the world.

Garcia is far more qualified to be mayor.

[Duke of York]

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

If this actually happens (Garcia overtaking Adams in the final round from 3rd place in the initial count), it will be "Stop the Steal" on steroids, rivaling the Florida 2000 level of controversy.

How? That’s how RCV works. Nothing fraudulent about it.

[Duke of York]

Garcia by 1, calling it now.

one vote or one percent? I hope she wins.

[Duke of York]

If Adams loses the primary, does he wage a write in campaign?

I doubt it.  He wouldn’t want to risk electing Silwa

[Duke of York]

BOW has updated. Adams lead of about 8500.

Clear Garcia lead of 10K over Wiley on round 7. Richards leads by 1K in Queens President race, Fossela by 300 in GOP Staten Island President race.

Congrats Mayor Adams, I wish it had been Garcia but it is what it is.

[Duke of York]

I’m surprised we haven’t gotten any polls of this election yet.

[Duke of York]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

He'd never get elected statewide but i could see him getting appointed to one of those positions by a future Republican president.

[Duke of York]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

He'd never get elected statewide but i could see him getting appointed to one of those positions by a future Republican president.

Or a centrist Democratic president or so.....but he is not going to win and he probably knows it, that's why he is not campaigning as heavily as Lhota and Malliotakis did....he'll go back to Canarsie and run Guardian Angels and he'll go back to WABC-AM

Sliwa and Catsimiditis, or Cats, they are wealthy and bored men who have nothing else to do...

Its plausible a centrist president could appoint him. What percentage of the vote do you think he will get?

[Duke of York]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

He'd never get elected statewide but i could see him getting appointed to one of those positions by a future Republican president.

Or a centrist Democratic president or so.....but he is not going to win and he probably knows it, that's why he is not campaigning as heavily as Lhota and Malliotakis did....he'll go back to Canarsie and run Guardian Angels and he'll go back to WABC-AM

Sliwa and Catsimiditis, or Cats, they are wealthy and bored men who have nothing else to do...

Its plausible a centrist president could appoint him. What percentage of the vote do you think he will get?

A centrist democratic president like Conor Lamb or so will have to appoint him as DHS minister especially with the far left pushing the Abolish ICE nonsense.....they will have to appeal to Independent voters....

Sliwa will get 20%-25% of the vote in November.

only 25 percent? So a call within a few minutes of poll closing?

[Duke of York]

I’m surprised we haven’t gotten any polls of this election yet.

Not really. Adams will win in a landslide, so not huge demand. The only question is whether Silwa can win Staten Island.

A couple news organizations will issue some polls closer to the election,  maybe before the end of the month.

I don't doubt it will be a landslide. I wonder if Silwa will get higher than 25 percent.

[Duke of York]

any idea when or if we get a poll for this election?

[Duke of York]

Adams is going to be the winner of this race regardless. Silwa isn't even being politically serious and his whole mayor campaign is a joke even to the cops/firepersons. Unless if you're a AOC/bernie fan the dsa pick for mayor is not even going to get 2 to 3 percent of the vote

What makes you say that?

[Duke of York]

Im still surprised there have been zero polls for this election. I thought we'd have gotten one by now.

[Duke of York]

I find it interesting how we never got a single poll of the general election. I predict Adams will get at least 65 percent of the vote. I don't think he will reach 70 but its possible.

What do others think?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1452730432802357248?s=20

Adams leads Silwa 70 to 30.