NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Suburbia]

The South Shore of Staten Island did not get any Democratic mayoral visits, fueling the intensity of a potential secession from NYC in the future, especially if Adams is mayor and if Cuomo is reelected in 2022 and Malliotakis loses to a Democrat if her district becomes more liberal, diluting the white conservative base that elected Giuliani and Bloomberg....

https://www.silive.com/politics/2021/07/cold-shoulder-report-says-top-dem-mayoral-candidates-steered-clear-of-south-shore-in-primary-campaign.html

[Oryxslayer]

Did they ever release precinct results for the final round?

Nope. Will they? The sites layout seems to suggest eventually, since we got precinct breakdowns for every race without RCV, but who knows.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Real yikes moment for the Garcia team as Wiley starts to catch up for second place

https://web.enrboenyc.us/CD24306ADI0.html

10:10 P.M. Eastern

388,788 votes counted total

Adams: 116,522 - 29.97%
Garcia: 82989 - 21.35%
Wiley: 81196 - 20.88%
Yang: 46521 - 11.97%

Many of the recent polls did show Wiley leading Garcia in the first couple of rounds until, like, round six when Yang's voters pushed the latter ahead into the final. So, if the surveys are accurate, a third place finish in round one would not necessarily spell doom for the Garcia team.  

Looking back, it really is amazing how accurate the polls were.

[PSOL]

Yeah, recent events have made me warm up to Cathy Rojas.

[Suburbia]

Will Eric Adams win Staten Island in the GE?

Despite progressive rethoric and his campagins focus on crime Adams is not the NYPD canidate. He was in facted hated by much of the NYPD for being outspoken against the department back in the day, their Union refused to endorse him telling their members that they should absoutley not rank him.

His chance of winning Staten Island is minimal.

Will Eric Adams win Staten Island in the GE?

That's a good question.  Is racial polarization too salient in NYC, or can a diverse conservative-populist coalition be built?

Eric Adams has precisely zero appeal among republican white conservatives, his cultural conservatism is restricted to that of Partisan Democrats.

Bill DeBlasio won Staten Island in 2013. I think it remains to be seen how much turnout Silwa can attract, but Staten Island isn't exactly a hard right region in terms of their politics either having voted for Democrats at the national and state levels previously.

de Blasio lost SI in 2013 by 9-10 points because Lhota was a MTA boss, and SI has the highest congestion pricing hikes in NYC.....so a lot of Republicans stayed home

Adams could win SI, but it is unlikely.

[Frodo]

What's Andrew Yang going to be doing now that he lost the New York City mayoral Democratic primary?  Try again four years from now?  Attempt another quixotic run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024?  Or just stick to the private sector?  

[Utah Neolib]

What's Andrew Yang going to be doing now that he lost the New York City mayoral Democratic primary?  Try again four years from now?  Attempt another quixotic run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024?  Or just stick to the private sector?  

Decent chance at being a future Secretary of Commerce

[cinyc]

Did they ever release precinct results for the final round?

Yes. Last Thursday (finally!)

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/19/new-york-city-democratic-mayoral-primary-final-results-map-by-precinct-round/

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What's Andrew Yang going to be doing now that he lost the New York City mayoral Democratic primary?  Try again four years from now?  Attempt another quixotic run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024?  Or just stick to the private sector?  

Mayor of Atlanta is open if he just wants to run for random mayorships

[Horus]

What's Andrew Yang going to be doing now that he lost the New York City mayoral Democratic primary?  Try again four years from now?  Attempt another quixotic run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024?  Or just stick to the private sector?  

Mayor of Atlanta is open if he just wants to run for random mayorships

Please no.

[Suburbia]

Does Adams win Howard Beach, Glendale, Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst?

I don't think people take Sliwa seriously.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Does Adams win Howard Beach, Glendale, Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst?

I don't think people take Sliwa seriously.

The beret probably has that affect on people. I certainly can't.

But he is also white and running against a black man, so it negates that a bit and he'll do about as well as a generic Republican in Staten Island at least.

[Suburbia]

Does Adams win Howard Beach, Glendale, Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst?

I don't think people take Sliwa seriously.

The beret probably has that affect on people. I certainly can't.

But he is also white and running against a black man, so it negates that a bit and he'll do about as well as a generic Republican in Staten Island at least.

So basically another Giuliani-Dinkins type of thing, but Staten Island's demographics have gotten more browner since 1993; SI is still white, but it is probably 60% or 55% white now, and a lot of Latinos/Black live on the North Shore, and the South Shore is the most Republican out of all the areas in NYC other than Broad Channel/Belle Harbor and probably Whitestone/Douglaston/Little Neck...

[Real Texan Politics]

Wholesome moment from the Sliwa campaign.
https://twitter.com/CurtisSliwa/status/1431078404963684355?s=20

[Badger]

Wholesome moment from the Sliwa campaign.
https://twitter.com/CurtisSliwa/status/1431078404963684355?s=20

I've never been impressed with this guy, but that was heartfelt. Yeah, maybe he was mugging for the cameras a bit, but you could tell he genuinely cared at least somewhat about the guy, which for most politician says a lot.

Having him as mayor would be worse than Giuliani part 2, and Adams is going to beat him like a drum. But after years of Republicans putting unapologetically god-awful mean-spirited bastards as their leaders for the last few years like Trump, Tucker Carlson, mtge, Ted Cruz, Sean Hannity, etc etc, it's nice and even refreshing to see some Republican politicians just being decent people.

[Badger]

Did they ever release precinct results for the final round?

Yes. Last Thursday (finally!)

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/19/new-york-city-democratic-mayoral-primary-final-results-map-by-precinct-round/

Does anyone know why McGuire did well in two non-contiguous areas on the first round map, one being in (I think) NE Brooklyn in AD 39, and the other being south of that near the Brooklyn-Queens border (again, I think) in AD 54? None of the precincts he won were unpopulated ones with nominal votes. One such neighborhood I'd assume was his home, but I can't explain the strength in two neighborhoods which aren't particularly close.

[The Free North]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

[Tintrlvr]

Did they ever release precinct results for the final round?

Yes. Last Thursday (finally!)

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/19/new-york-city-democratic-mayoral-primary-final-results-map-by-precinct-round/

Does anyone know why McGuire did well in two non-contiguous areas on the first round map, one being in (I think) NE Brooklyn in AD 39, and the other being south of that near the Brooklyn-Queens border (again, I think) in AD 54? None of the precincts he won were unpopulated ones with nominal votes. One such neighborhood I'd assume was his home, but I can't explain the strength in two neighborhoods which aren't particularly close.

AD-39 is in Central Queens; I see the precinct you are talking about. It appears to be a relatively ordinary part of Central Queens that is majority Asian with a sizeable Hispanic minority and essential no non-Hispanic white or black voters, like most of that area. McGuire does appear to have done very well in the surrounding precincts as well, although Yang won most of them. The predominant Asian group in that area would be immigrants from SE Asia; for example, there is a Thai Buddhist temple located within the precinct McGuire won, and some nearby commercial blocks are centers of the Vietnamese community in NYC.

I also see where you mean in AD-54, right on the Brooklyn-Queens border. That area is also majority Asian, with black and Hispanic minorities and essentially no non-Hispanic white voters, although there the Asian population is mainly Bangladeshi, I believe.

It seems that McGuire did particularly well with certain Southeast and South Asian communities, perhaps due to special outreach by a member of his team or some local community endorsement, and clearly those groups felt less affinity with Yang than East Asian communities did. (I can't see a difference in performance for Yang in mostly Korean vs. Chinese communities, so it seems that he did equally well with different East Asian groups.) However, this wasn't consistent, and there are other mostly Southeast or South Asian areas, particularly in Queens, where McGuire fared poorly, so it was likely based on very local community factors.

[Real Texan Politics]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

I would 100% enthusiastically endorse Sliwa if he actually had a decent shot at winning, which it looks like he unfortunately doesn't.

Then again, literally ANYONE is better than de Blasio, and that includes Eric Adams.

[Duke of York]

I’m surprised we haven’t gotten any polls of this election yet.

[Suburbia]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

[Duke of York]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

He'd never get elected statewide but i could see him getting appointed to one of those positions by a future Republican president.

[Suburbia]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

He'd never get elected statewide but i could see him getting appointed to one of those positions by a future Republican president.

Or a centrist Democratic president or so.....but he is not going to win and he probably knows it, that's why he is not campaigning as heavily as Lhota and Malliotakis did....he'll go back to Canarsie and run Guardian Angels and he'll go back to WABC-AM

Sliwa and Catsimiditis, or Cats, they are wealthy and bored men who have nothing else to do...

[Duke of York]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

He'd never get elected statewide but i could see him getting appointed to one of those positions by a future Republican president.

Or a centrist Democratic president or so.....but he is not going to win and he probably knows it, that's why he is not campaigning as heavily as Lhota and Malliotakis did....he'll go back to Canarsie and run Guardian Angels and he'll go back to WABC-AM

Sliwa and Catsimiditis, or Cats, they are wealthy and bored men who have nothing else to do...

Its plausible a centrist president could appoint him. What percentage of the vote do you think he will get?

[Suburbia]

Dems on the forum should do research on Silwa.

Certainly he might not agree with most of the leftists on policy but the guys entire life has been devoted to keeping the streets and trains safe and getting help for the most vulnerable in the city. He walks the walk and talks the talk and in todays day and age thats extremely rare. I don't agree with a lot of what he says but I sit on my laptop in suburbia most of the day while he's been living the life for decades now. I can't say sh**t.

Sliwa would be a good choice for AG or some law enforcement position statewide or nationally....I can see Sliwa being DHS Secretary or Crime Czar in a Republican administration....

He'd never get elected statewide but i could see him getting appointed to one of those positions by a future Republican president.

Or a centrist Democratic president or so.....but he is not going to win and he probably knows it, that's why he is not campaigning as heavily as Lhota and Malliotakis did....he'll go back to Canarsie and run Guardian Angels and he'll go back to WABC-AM

Sliwa and Catsimiditis, or Cats, they are wealthy and bored men who have nothing else to do...

Its plausible a centrist president could appoint him. What percentage of the vote do you think he will get?

A centrist democratic president like Conor Lamb or so will have to appoint him as DHS minister especially with the far left pushing the Abolish ICE nonsense.....they will have to appeal to Independent voters....

Sliwa will get 20%-25% of the vote in November.