NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Credit to @Union_Tpke on twitter.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, what a comeback. I guess Wasserman needs much more experience with RCV lol

Also, if Garcia pulls it out, Adams #StopTheSteal incoming. You heard it here first, folks.

In a similar vein to the previous post, I think we are all unprepared for the Trumpian manner Adams may conduct himself during these next few weeks. He has already displayed hints of it during the cross-endorsement, and the inevitable wanting period will only heighten everyone's nerves. Unless something shocking happens, Adams will win the first round votes counted tonight. We will however get an idea based on comparative turnout by neighborhood and RCV projections if he is in danger of losing that position on the final allocation. Adams has already attacked the RCV process and will likely continue to do so if the data is there for a final round loss. He also could try to claim some legitimacy from his first round victory as if it was the final contest, potentially through an incredibly premature victory party and speech tonight.

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1407327838861238275?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Soooo....the person who finished f'n third in the election may end up winning?

That isn't democracy.

Er, if Garcia does end up winning, then that means more people preferred her to be mayor over Adams. That's how RCV works. This is democracy.

[Lambsbread]

Dave Wasserman is not all knowning wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1409968018285813767?s=20

[President Johnson]

I did the math, and Garcia needs to win 56.4% of the remaining ballots to defeat Adams in the final round.

How likely is that? I hope she wins because she's better than Adams.

[Ferguson97]

I did the math, and Garcia needs to win 56.4% of the remaining ballots to defeat Adams in the final round.

How likely is that? I hope she wins because she's better than Adams.

Not sure tbh. My gut says it's likely because I don't think there would be that many Wiley > Adams > Garcia voters... I imagine most of Wiley's will go to her.

[Jeppe]

I did the math, and Garcia needs to win 56.4% of the remaining ballots to defeat Adams in the final round.

How likely is that? I hope she wins because she's better than Adams.

Pretty likely, absentees are disproportionately in wealthy, white districts that Garcia did really well in.

[new_patomic]

Absentees can also be exhausted before the final round.

[Sestak]

Absentees can also be exhausted before the final round.

If we assume around a quarter of them do, the target for Garcia is closer to 58-60.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

I want to believe but it sounds like copium to me

You were saying...?

[GALeftist]

Ok, so now I'm hearing there are a bunch of election day votes from the Bronx that haven't been counted yet for some reason? What is going on lol

[Sestak]

Ok, so now I'm hearing there are a bunch of election day votes from the Bronx that haven't been counted yet for some reason? What is going on lol

If you're seeing this from the Wasserman tweet, he seems to have misunderstood. There were 140K votes from the Bronx that were uncounted last week. They are now counted and are included in this last update. Maybe. Still unsure.

[GALeftist]

Ok, so now I'm hearing there are a bunch of election day votes from the Bronx that haven't been counted yet for some reason? What is going on lol

If you're seeing this from the Wasserman tweet, he seems to have misunderstood. There were 140K votes from the Bronx that were uncounted last week. They are now counted and are included in this last update. Maybe. Still unsure.

I suspect that was the original source of the confusion. My verdict is that Wasserman and the NYCBOE are both cringe

[Jeppe]

Ok, so now I'm hearing there are a bunch of election day votes from the Bronx that haven't been counted yet for some reason? What is going on lol

If you're seeing this from the Wasserman tweet, he seems to have misunderstood. There were 140K votes from the Bronx that were uncounted last week. They are now counted and are included in this last update. Maybe. Still unsure.

I suspect that was the original source of the confusion. My verdict is that Wasserman and the NYCBOE are both cringe

Wasserman deleted his tweets.

[Oryxslayer]

Ok, so now I'm hearing there are a bunch of election day votes from the Bronx that haven't been counted yet for some reason? What is going on lol

If you're seeing this from the Wasserman tweet, he seems to have misunderstood. There were 140K votes from the Bronx that were uncounted last week. They are now counted and are included in this last update. Maybe. Still unsure.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1409979509164679169?s=20

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1409972757840891904

Lol, if no Ballot Harvesting violates the VRA according to Dems then so does RCV.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I know we're all boiling Wasserman right now, but for what it's worth, he now thinks Garcia is favored.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1409981364062064643?s=21

[President Johnson]

Wow, what a comeback. I guess Wasserman needs much more experience with RCV lol

Also, if Garcia pulls it out, Adams #StopTheSteal incoming. You heard it here first, folks.

In a similar vein to the previous post, I think we are all unprepared for the Trumpian manner Adams may conduct himself during these next few weeks. He has already displayed hints of it during the cross-endorsement, and the inevitable wanting period will only heighten everyone's nerves. Unless something shocking happens, Adams will win the first round votes counted tonight. We will however get an idea based on comparative turnout by neighborhood and RCV projections if he is in danger of losing that position on the final allocation. Adams has already attacked the RCV process and will likely continue to do so if the data is there for a final round loss. He also could try to claim some legitimacy from his first round victory as if it was the final contest, potentially through an incredibly premature victory party and speech tonight.

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1407327838861238275?s=20

Blue Trump already exists in New York. See: Cuomo, Andrew M.

[KaiserDave]

Holy mackerel what’s going on

[Tintrlvr]

I did the math, and Garcia needs to win 56.4% of the remaining ballots to defeat Adams in the final round.

How likely is that? I hope she wins because she's better than Adams.

I think it's likely. She won 48.9% of the non-absentee vote. Based on geography, she should do around 10-15 points better with absentees than with non-absentees. There will be some ballot exhaustion, so not every one of the 123,000 absentee ballots will count in the final round (though probably less ballot exhaustion than in-person votes because absentee voters are quite sophisticated in New York and there will be fewer progressive-or-bust absentee votes). But not certain, and the final RCV count should be within 5,000 votes either way - maybe even within 1,000, i.e., close enough for a chaotic recount to plausibly change the result.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Garcia by 1, calling it now.

[jaichind]

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like he got duped by the Bronx E-Day vote just like Wasserman. Those votes largely were good for him, so this isn't an obvious target to start your tantrum campaign.

[Skill and Chance]

Here we go...