NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[GeneralMacArthur]

To be fair he seems to have taken a major dip since March.

He was cruising on name recognition and novelty early on, but once the race got serious and people started learning about the other candidates he was inevitably going to fall.

[warandwar]

There's also a decent chance that Asian-American and Orthodox/non-Satmar areas of the city - where Yang has been working hard to build support - turn out more heavily. They're hard to poll and could surprise. I'd still give Yang slightly better odds to surprise than Wiley, who needs to eat significantly into Adams' and Garcia's bases to have a shot.

"Orthodox/non-Satmar" - Yang has the majority of Satmars, while Adams has Flatbush, Midwood, Far Rockaway, and Crown Heights. So it's a wash.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Manhattan Institute also polled favorable ratings. I'll bold the parts that I find the most interesting.

                  (fav/unfav) (net)

Eric Adams: 54%/28% (+26)
Kathryn Garcia: 53%/12% (+41)
Maya Wiley: 49%/20% (+29)
Scott Stringer: 47%/29% (+18)
Andrew Yang: 47%/40% (+7)
Shaun Donovan: 40%/17% (+23)
Ray McGuire: 30%/19% (+11)
Dianne Morale: 26%/20% (+6)

[LabourJersey]

The Manhattan Institute also polled favorable ratings. I'll bold the parts that I find the most interesting.

                  (fav/unfav) (net)

Eric Adams: 54%/28% (+26)
Kathryn Garcia: 53%/12% (+41)
Maya Wiley: 49%/20% (+29)
Scott Stringer: 47%/29% (+18)
Andrew Yang: 47%/40% (+7)
Shaun Donovan: 40%/17% (+23)
Ray McGuire: 30%/19% (+11)
Dianne Morale: 26%/20% (+6)

This honestly seems more valuable than the simulated ranked choice poll.

[Tintrlvr]

Curious- what is the New York contingent based at D.C (e.g Schumer/Gillibrand, influential reps, major donors, outside groups etc) doing about this race?

I guess it's because NYC politics is such a dumpster fire but I wouldn't even be able to guess who the DNC/White House want to win this race- maybe Garcia?

I would say its chaotic but this race seems quite similar to 2013 in that respect...

Schumer and Gillibrand haven't endorsed. Gillibrand doesn't live in NYC so she should definitely keep out as a strategic matter; Schumer not endorsing isn't shocking as he's trying to play nice with whoever wins and it's hard to tell who will.

As far as NYC Congresspeople go, they're also splintered, although Wiley has the largest contingent:

Espaillat and Suozzi have endorsed Adams
Meeks has endorsed McGuire
Nadler has endorsed Stringer (Espaillat and Bowman had previously also endorsed Stringer but unendorsed after the sexual harassment allegations)
Bowman, Clarke, Jeffries, Ocasio-Cortez and Velazquez have endorsed Wiley
Meng and Torres have endorsed Yang
As far as I can tell, Maloney has not endorsed anyone

The most insider-y of those endorsements is Jeffries, who is part of the Congressional leadership and wants to be the next Speaker. He only endorsed Wiley recently, and it's transparently part of a general attempt on his part to gain support with the left-establishment for further leadership roles.

Outside groups are also pretty random. Adams and Stringer both have a lot of union support, and Wiley, Garcia and Yang all have some union backing, too. Reporting is that de Blasio is quietly supporting Adams, but he hasn't publicly endorsed anyone. (At one of the debates, everyone except Yang said they would reject his endorsement, lol.)

I think it's clear that Stringer would have been the establishment choice, but his collapse has fragmented things and means the establishment is just kind of sitting on the sidelines. I think Adams is probably the viable candidate they see as most likely to play ball with the national party but they're concerned about his image in activist circles and his intraparty conflicts within the Brooklyn Democratic Party. I don't think the institutions feel like they know enough about Garcia to put any backing behind her (and personally I think she is not enough of a politician for them), but I think personally a lot of establishment political operatives who live in NYC will vote for her.

[Tintrlvr]

On a polling note, the basic difference seems to be turnout estimates. The strong Adams polling seems to be presuming middling turnout (around 20-25%) while the strong Garcia polling seems to be presuming poor turnout (around 15-20%). Those figures are roughly in the range of the last few competitive Democratic primaries for mayor, which saw turnouts of 22%, 19% and 15%. The lower the turnout, the higher the portion of the vote that will come from super-ultra-likely voters, who skew white, wealthy and Manhattanite and generally favor Garcia, whereas in the middling turnout range you'll see more turnout from in particular middle class older black voters in Brooklyn and Queens who are strongly for Adams. Hard to say which comes through. Turnout figures from early voting over the weekend were absolutely dismal (only about 30,000 votes cast city-wide, of which 10,000 came from Manhattan, i.e., massive overperformance from Manhattan/underperformance elsewhere), but since early voting is new, it's impossible to draw much in the way of conclusions there.

[Pyro]

Anecdotal, but I've noticed lately that our glut of Yang ads have had an anti-Adams tinge to them. One keeps bringing up Adams' Giuliani endorsement. For the most part his campaign (and all of them?) were releasing strictly positive ads. Seems like it's too little too late.

[Storr]

Said Marist poll's RCV ballot.

I personally think the best opportunity here for An Adams loss is from Wiley. Mainly because I have a harder time seeing there being Garcia -> Adams transfers when compared to the large overlap in Garcia -> Wiley. Wiley on the other hand has some demographic support that would flow to Adams, despite their ideological differences.

Dare I use the power of the internet to find out who Paperboy Love Prince is?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

The Manhattan Institute also has a poll out today with Adams > Garcia > Wiley > Yang, but has Garcia taking over Adams in the end.

https://twitter.com/arpitrage/status/1404527440140111872

Dianne Morales' support, when she becomes eliminated, appears to run quite consistently to Maya Wiley.

A few things.

1) Shows the value of that AOC/Our Revolution endorsement.

2) Wow, still can't believe that somehow Wiley is considered the leading progressive in this race. What a horrible cast.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Said Marist poll's RCV ballot.

I personally think the best opportunity here for An Adams loss is from Wiley. Mainly because I have a harder time seeing there being Garcia -> Adams transfers when compared to the large overlap in Garcia -> Wiley. Wiley on the other hand has some demographic support that would flow to Adams, despite their ideological differences.

Dare I use the power of the internet to find out who Paperboy Love Prince is?

Paperboy Prince is a queer community organizer. As far as I can tell they have big Marianne Williamson vibes, but they actually contribute to their community.

[PSOL]

Said Marist poll's RCV ballot.

I personally think the best opportunity here for An Adams loss is from Wiley. Mainly because I have a harder time seeing there being Garcia -> Adams transfers when compared to the large overlap in Garcia -> Wiley. Wiley on the other hand has some demographic support that would flow to Adams, despite their ideological differences.

Dare I use the power of the internet to find out who Paperboy Love Prince is?

Paperboy Prince is a queer community organizer. As far as I can tell they have big Marianne Williamson vibes, but they actually contribute to their community.

Well Williamson did run food programs and hospices in the 80s.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Said Marist poll's RCV ballot.

I personally think the best opportunity here for An Adams loss is from Wiley. Mainly because I have a harder time seeing there being Garcia -> Adams transfers when compared to the large overlap in Garcia -> Wiley. Wiley on the other hand has some demographic support that would flow to Adams, despite their ideological differences.

Dare I use the power of the internet to find out who Paperboy Love Prince is?

Paperboy Prince is a queer community organizer. As far as I can tell they have big Marianne Williamson vibes, but they actually contribute to their community.

Well Williamson did run food programs and hospices in the 80s.

Yet another reason to love her.

[warandwar]

Paperboy Prince is literally a grifter and an ex-Yang Ganger who runs an art gallery in Bushwick that uses mutual aid as a publicity stunt. I preferenced him ahead of Wiley.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1404919624592990212?s=20

Another RCV assignment, this time with Garcia finishing ahead. As noted previously, Garcia does best when the turnout model assumes lower comparative minority  - especially African American - turnout. Change has a good track-record in Democratic primaries. Most notable is Morales's complete collapse. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Tomorrow’s headline;

Yang Gang faces polling pains in final stretch of the campaign

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, what's Yang going to do after he (very likely) loses?

[Lambsbread]

Wiley would be the favorite if Stringer had dropped out...just sayin'.

So, what's Yang going to do after he (very likely) loses?

Primary Cuomo probably.

[LabourJersey]

Wiley would be the favorite if Stringer had dropped out...just sayin'.

So, what's Yang going to do after he (very likely) loses?

Primary Cuomo probably.

Cuomo vs. de Blasio vs. Yang

The primary we deserve.

[Donerail]

Wiley would be the favorite if Stringer had dropped out...just sayin'.

Don't see why this is true — we can see where Stringer's remaining preferences flow, and it's not entirely (or even mostly) to Wiley.

[Horus]

I guess Garcia it is. Adams has a shady history, Wiley is overwoke, Yang is a shadow of his 2020 self and Stringer is a sex pest.

[Not Me, Us]

Wiley would be the favorite if Stringer had dropped out...just sayin'.

So, what's Yang going to do after he (very likely) loses?

Primary Cuomo probably.

Cuomo vs. de Blasio vs. Yang

The primary we deserve.

If that happens, New York is truly doomed.

[Oryxslayer]

Change Research also polled favorability among Dem primary voters. Yang once again has the worst ratings of the 4 frontrunners, and enjoys near universal recognition. Lol at Morales.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Change Research also polled favorability among Dem primary voters. Yang once again has the worst ratings of the 4 frontrunners, and enjoys near universal favorability. Lol at Morales.

Excellent numbers for Garcia. In a RCV setting, you need to have as many people like you as possible.

On the flip side, these are obviously very bad for Yang.

[Lambsbread]

Lol @ Yang and Morales.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Wiley would be the favorite if Stringer had dropped out...just sayin'.

So, what's Yang going to do after he (very likely) loses?

Primary Cuomo probably.

Cuomo vs. de Blasio vs. Yang

The primary we deserve.

If that happens, New York is truly doomed.

De Blasio as governor would be great for NY. Yang, not so much, and Cuomo needs to go.