NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[warandwar]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I'll admit Wiley has said some dumb stuff before, but there's nothing wrong with this. I don't even see how this is bad, confronting the housing crisis and police reform are both very noble goals.

Wiley is blaming developers for the homeless crisis. That's woefully inaccurate.

Do you live in new york city? Developers certainly play a role here - see Desmond's work on the "eviction crisis."

[warandwar]

The left made a critical error in bashing Yang and not Adams.

Yang is a foolish incompetent, but Adams is dangerous.

Can you explain this to me? "The left" is certainly bashing Adams right now, with Our City and all that. There were big meetings to coordinate anti-Yang and anti-Adams messaging like 2 months ago. You're not going to be able to escape it, soon enough!
As a city employee, i personally think Yang will be a worse boss for me than Adams lol.

I think they’re refering to Adams being “out there” with that “give Teachers a village to teach” comment

Adams is weird in an everyday way. I could imagine a coworker saying that. Makes him more relateable, imho.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I'll admit Wiley has said some dumb stuff before, but there's nothing wrong with this. I don't even see how this is bad, confronting the housing crisis and police reform are both very noble goals.

Wiley is blaming developers for the homeless crisis. That's woefully inaccurate.

Do you live in new york city? Developers certainly play a role here - see Desmond's work on the "eviction crisis."

I'm not too inclined to finger developers as the big villains of this story. But then again I'm a market urbanist...

[wbrocks67]

While I like Wiley, Garcia seems the most 'rational minded' out of the bunch.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If I were in New York my ballot would be

Prince (mostly as a protest)
Donovan (he’s slightly better than McGuire)
Wiley
Garcia

[warandwar]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I'll admit Wiley has said some dumb stuff before, but there's nothing wrong with this. I don't even see how this is bad, confronting the housing crisis and police reform are both very noble goals.

Wiley is blaming developers for the homeless crisis. That's woefully inaccurate.

Do you live in new york city? Developers certainly play a role here - see Desmond's work on the "eviction crisis."

I'm not too inclined to finger developers as the big villains of this story. But then again I'm a market urbanist...

Talk to some of those developers' tenants (and former tenants) and see what you think. NYC landlords are some heinous creatures.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I'll admit Wiley has said some dumb stuff before, but there's nothing wrong with this. I don't even see how this is bad, confronting the housing crisis and police reform are both very noble goals.

Wiley is blaming developers for the homeless crisis. That's woefully inaccurate.

Do you live in new york city? Developers certainly play a role here - see Desmond's work on the "eviction crisis."

I'm not too inclined to finger developers as the big villains of this story. But then again I'm a market urbanist...

Talk to some of those developers' tenants (and former tenants) and see what you think. NYC landlords are some heinous creatures.

I won't deny that many of the developers may be scummy in at least some ways, but it's not their fault housing prices in New York are where they are (unless they are heavily involved in restraining supply); pervasive NIMBYism, extremely high levels of demand (NYC is a very attractive place to live), and side effects from things like regulation all strike me as bigger factors.
Not that the NYC housing market needs massive deregulation and there are probably good reason for a lot of the things they have in place, but to give significant blame to developers for very deep systemic problems and side-effects from the way things are done is stretching the truth.

[warandwar]

The idea that there's "pervasive NIMBYism" when nearly every single rezoning sails through is a sign that you are taking a one size fits all square peg and trying to fit it into new york's round hole. Next thing i know, you're going to be decrying the single family zoning in Midtown. From the mid 90s to 2019 there was a massive legal financial incentive to evict longtime working class residents out of rent stabilized housing, chop up the units and churn through younger renters till you got an unregulated building. And research has shown that high evictions are a precursor to displacement. So i think developers have a clear role here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The idea that there's "pervasive NIMBYism" when nearly every single rezoning sails through is a sign that you are taking a one size fits all square peg and trying to fit it into new york's round hole. Next thing i know, you're going to be decrying the single family zoning in Midtown. From the mid 90s to 2019 there was a massive legal financial incentive to evict longtime working class residents out of rent stabilized housing, chop up the units and churn through younger renters till you got an unregulated building. And research has shown that high evictions are a precursor to displacement. So i think developers have a clear role here.

My go-to example as to proof that pervasive NIMBYism is a thing in NYC actually would be Liz Crowley being voted out seemingly as a protest vote due to a new homeless shelter being built.

[compucomp]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I hope the silent majority in NYC shows up to vote in this primary and rejects this kind of thinking. The renaissance in NYC of the last decade, with capital, wealth, and new residents flowing into the area, happened as a direct result of lowering crime and pro-development policies, and people like Wiley just want to throw all that away in the name of wokeness. It cannot possibly be true that New Yorkers actually want their city to go back to the way it was in the 1970's and 1980's. It should help that moderates who would have registered as Republicans in the past are probably registered as Democrats now.

I never took you for a anti-poor type guy.

No, NYC is not in a Renaissance right now. New York is an unlivable mess due to the housing crisis. And it's mostly thanks to people like Stephen Ross, responsible for the Hudson Yards abortion, building luxury housing and condos everywhere to make maximum profit instead of badly needed high density housing that would actually keep up with the demand. It's happening to some extent in every city, but New York needs to be different to adapt and continue being a mecca for everyone who wants to come. And not just spoiled brats with daddy's credit card, Chinese tourists, and Google employees.

These "spoiled brats" you refer to are the ones driving wealth and capital into the NYC area, turning it around from the 1970's and 80's when NYC was a wasteland. The predicted 2020 Armageddon in state and municipal revenues didn't happen at all in this area largely because these white collar industries you hate (law firms, financial services, IT companies, etc) ran just fine WFH and in the case of financial services, made a killing. It's not their fault the government wastes the tax revenues being ineffective and/or corrupt, or making bad tax deals with developers, or not revaluing properties regularly which would raise property tax revenues.

Speaking of anti-poor, I can't think of anything more anti-poor than abolishing the police, which is what Wiley wants. Nobody wants more crime in their neighborhood. Rich people can move out to NJ or Westchester or Long Island and drive to work, but poor people have to actually live amidst the crime.

[warandwar]

Wiley does not want to abolish police. She is too anti-poor to believe in that.

[xavier110]

Really looks like Adams will win regardless of his final round opponent. Marist has him snagging something like over 70% of the redistributed black vote and I don’t see that budging in the next couple weeks.

If he holds that and does respectably with other demographics, he wins.

Sweeps almost every borough while the not-Adams finalist (Garcia or Wiley) takes Manhattan.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I hope the silent majority in NYC shows up to vote in this primary and rejects this kind of thinking. The renaissance in NYC of the last decade, with capital, wealth, and new residents flowing into the area, happened as a direct result of lowering crime and pro-development policies, and people like Wiley just want to throw all that away in the name of wokeness. It cannot possibly be true that New Yorkers actually want their city to go back to the way it was in the 1970's and 1980's. It should help that moderates who would have registered as Republicans in the past are probably registered as Democrats now.

I never took you for a anti-poor type guy.

No, NYC is not in a Renaissance right now. New York is an unlivable mess due to the housing crisis. And it's mostly thanks to people like Stephen Ross, responsible for the Hudson Yards abortion, building luxury housing and condos everywhere to make maximum profit instead of badly needed high density housing that would actually keep up with the demand. It's happening to some extent in every city, but New York needs to be different to adapt and continue being a mecca for everyone who wants to come. And not just spoiled brats with daddy's credit card, Chinese tourists, and Google employees.

These "spoiled brats" you refer to are the ones driving wealth and capital into the NYC area, turning it around from the 1970's and 80's when NYC was a wasteland.

CraneHusband has a point about “spoiled brats”. I hope the irony of said hipster gentrifiers being associated with Wiley and Wiley-type candidates isn’t lost on him.

I would still rank Wiley above Garcia and Adams. But I’m moving her down to #3 below Art Chang on my imaginary ballot.

[Oryxslayer]

Said Marist poll's RCV ballot.

I personally think the best opportunity here for An Adams loss is from Wiley. Mainly because I have a harder time seeing there being Garcia -> Adams transfers when compared to the large overlap in Garcia -> Wiley. Wiley on the other hand has some demographic support that would flow to Adams, despite their ideological differences.

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see Garcia in 2nd. Hopefully she can continue gaining momentum and grabs #1 from Adams.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I support the trash lady. Hopefully she wins and is unable to destroy unions, which I assume she would try to do as most public administrators are nasty in this way. Unfortunately, the alternatives are even more unsavory than her.

[wbrocks67]

The Manhattan Institute also has a poll out today with Adams > Garcia > Wiley > Yang, but has Garcia taking over Adams in the end.

https://twitter.com/arpitrage/status/1404527440140111872

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hoping desperately for a Garcia RCV win. For various reasons, I don't trust Adams, Yang, or Wiley to effectively solve New York's many problems.

[Blair]

Curious- what is the New York contingent based at D.C (e.g Schumer/Gillibrand, influential reps, major donors, outside groups etc) doing about this race?

I guess it's because NYC politics is such a dumpster fire but I wouldn't even be able to guess who the DNC/White House want to win this race- maybe Garcia?

I would say its chaotic but this race seems quite similar to 2013 in that respect...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Pretty poor field overall, but if I had to support someone it'd probably be Garcia. 2nd place probably Adams and 3rd place Yang

[Real Texan Politics]

Current PredictIt betting odds (and spoiler alert, it's bad for Yang)

1st - Eric Adams (57 cents)
2nd - Kathryn Garcia (22 cents)
3rd - Maya Wiley (14 cents)
4th - Andrew Yang (13 cents)

Everyone else at low single digits. Stringer now at 1 cent.

I think I can say it with confidence now, Andrew Yang will NOT be mayor of New York City, and his political future seems to practically be over at this point. He's probably better off as an activist/pundit now.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think I can say it with confidence now, Andrew Yang will NOT be mayor of New York City, and his political future seems to practically be over at this point.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I don’t support Yang, in fact he’s one of my lower candidates, but how on earth are you MORE confident in that as this campaign has unfolded? All that’s become clear really is that Yang is inevitable.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

^^^Complete uninformed ignorance right here

Yang is very likely to win

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I get that you want to stir sh*t but this is just a laughable take

[Real Texan Politics]

I think I can say it with confidence now, Andrew Yang will NOT be mayor of New York City, and his political future seems to practically be over at this point.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I don’t support Yang, in fact he’s one of my lower candidates, but how on earth are you MORE confident in that as this campaign has unfolded? All that’s become clear really is that Yang is inevitable.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

^^^Complete uninformed ignorance right here

Yang is very likely to win

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I get that you want to stir sh*t but this is just a laughable take

To be fair he seems to have taken a major dip since March.

[LabourJersey]

I think I can say it with confidence now, Andrew Yang will NOT be mayor of New York City, and his political future seems to practically be over at this point.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I don’t support Yang, in fact he’s one of my lower candidates, but how on earth are you MORE confident in that as this campaign has unfolded? All that’s become clear really is that Yang is inevitable.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

^^^Complete uninformed ignorance right here

Yang is very likely to win

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I get that you want to stir sh*t but this is just a laughable take

Yang still has a shot though? We don't know how RCV will pan out. It's down from being a ~50% chance three months ago to a ~10% chance now, but that's still a chance.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

There's also a decent chance that Asian-American and Orthodox/non-Satmar areas of the city - where Yang has been working hard to build support - turn out more heavily. They're hard to poll and could surprise. I'd still give Yang slightly better odds to surprise than Wiley, who needs to eat significantly into Adams' and Garcia's bases to have a shot.