NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

The Washington Square Park thing is obviously deranged and needs to stop. If you require peace and quiet at all hours of the day maybe don’t live next to a park surrounded by college student housing in the middle of New York City? Go move to New Jersey or something?

None of this means we should implement public safety austerity that would primarily hurt poor and minority communities though, as the far left continues to advocate for.

[Tintrlvr]

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1401844880968753154

So it seems Stringer's supporters aren't buying the allegations?

Sucks for Yang as well, he's running out of political options at this point. Guess he'll just become an activist and/or commentator?

The poll was conducted before the latest round of allegations against Stringer. But also remember that his base of voters is mainly older liberals on the Upper West and Upper East Sides of Manhattan, not the sort of voters who get outraged by sexual harassment allegations that aren't completely cut and dry; he was never the candidate of choice for many young liberals, though he might have become such if there had been no allegations.

Anyway, I think I'm set in my preference order now:

1. Garcia
2. McGuire
3. Wiley
4. Stringer
5. Yang

I would probably put Donovan in there somewhere if he had any chance at all of making the top two. But as is I chose to put Stringer in ahead of him, which makes me feel a bit icky, but I would prefer Stringer to either Yang or Adams, and that's not an entirely impossible top three scenario so...

[Pyro]

It would help to admit that Washington Square Park has had a problem with violent crime and hard drugs for months. There have been regular stories about this in local news (and not just the Post). I also know enough people who live in the city or visit regularly to have caught supporting anecdotes.

The parties are a more recent development. They been increasing large, increasingly loud, and increasingly promoted over social media since April. I don't know enough to accept or reject claims about the crowds getting violent last weekend, before the curfew was enacted, because I know people who have been beaten by the NYPD and I don't trust their PR stooges any more than I trust anyone else's. But this is not arbitrary enforcement, and passing it off as a one-sided story is dishonest.

As I've said, the NYPD stationed at the park could have used a more thoughtful process to deal with crime in the park.
Their response is/was wildly out of line and exemplifies the problems with a militarized police force.

What I read in your final paragraph worries me a great deal. You say that you are interested in "improving public awareness" but you don't seem to have a grasp on the relationship between policing and crime and won't admit to even the most obvious and well-documented tradeoffs.

Moreover, the vague line about addressing root causes sounds very nice but does nothing for anyone who feels unsafe in their neighborhood right now. We can debate any one of the many interventions in this category, but as a rule they tend to be expensive and only marginally effective, especially in the short term. The point here is not to be categorically dismissive. It's just to acknowledge these programs are not a replacement for policing.

Solely increasing the presence and raw number of police officers is far from the wisest use of public funds when it comes to combating both violent and nonviolent crime. It's irresponsible for a city like New York, with the largest police force in the country and a $5B+ operating budget, to singularly blame crime rates on a lack of police officers. Other than implementing simple fixes like installing a mental health hotline and expanding Sec 8 eligibility, the city should be removing police from public schools and changing public perception of police away from that of an occupying force. Public safety is not only about enlisting cops, but actually investing some funds directly in poorer communities. You know what will help deter crime? Youth mentorships and summer programs. Community-based crime response groups. Adequately funding Cure Violence. Hell, even Eric Adams is in favor of some of these reforms, and some of them are replacements for policing.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

My opinion is this: the police in this country are deeply flawed, and also have far too many responsibilities that should be in a different department.

The solution is to redirect the responsibilities (like responding to mental health issues, and some other things I can't think of) and their funds to another area. Don't drastically cut the remaining spending, but don't increase it much either. Then we need reforms to make sure mentally unstable folks, blatant racists etc are not on the force, and have a serious system of punishment in the case of wrongdoing. No "on leave for 6 months" thing. Hold them accountable and you'd see the issues of overreach dwindle.

[Oryxslayer]

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1401844880968753154

So it seems Stringer's supporters aren't buying the allegations?

Sucks for Yang as well, he's running out of political options at this point. Guess he'll just become an activist and/or commentator?

Stinger has done well to hold onto his base support throughout his campaign, but his transfers have been low. Which makes sense: anyone who has paid attention no longer trusts him, but there remains a committed group who doesn't believe it or still thinks he is the best of a flawed field.

[brucejoel99]

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1401844880968753154

Aside from telling us that Adams leads on the 1st round, this poll is pretty useless in that it's not actually a full RCV poll.

[Babeuf]

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1401844880968753154

Aside from telling us that Adams leads on the 1st round, this poll is pretty useless in that it's not actually a full RCV poll.

Also, it's from mid to late May, which feels like ages ago politically!

[Pyro]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

[KaiserDave]

I've now met with almost every City Council candidate in my area. I like several, but many are frustrating in that they continue to oppose the Gowanus rezoning, which I support. Hmmmmm

[Babeuf]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

Could maybe peel away some Garcia voters if publicized? I feel like there’s decent overlap between Warren 2020 supporters and Garcia 2021 supporters, at least among people I know. Anecdotal though.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

Could maybe peel away some Garcia voters if publicized? I feel like there’s decent overlap between Warren 2020 supporters and Garcia 2021 supporters, at least among people I know. Anecdotal though.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The Wiley and Garcia’s bases Venn diagram are about a circle.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has anyone polled which candidates are most disliked and therefore will be least transfer friendly?

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone polled which candidates are most disliked and therefore will be least transfer friendly?

This is what makes me think Adams is unlikely. He may be #1 or #2 among 1st-choicers, but he doesn't seem to be anybody else's 2nd or 3rd choice. He seems to be well liked among his supporters but that's...about it

[Lambsbread]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

ENDORSED

[LabourJersey]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

Could maybe peel away some Garcia voters if publicized? I feel like there’s decent overlap between Warren 2020 supporters and Garcia 2021 supporters, at least among people I know. Anecdotal though.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The Wiley and Garcia’s bases Venn diagram are about a circle.

Are they? my impression is that Garcia voters are more moderate than Wiley's.

[Babeuf]

Post going after Wiley on the front page today, which means that people are considering her a threat. Don't think they would go after a no-hoper like that. 

[Woody]

Shaun Donovan reddit AMA going on now right now at r/politics:

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/nv4qcy/im_shaun_donovan_president_obamas_former_housing/

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

Could maybe peel away some Garcia voters if publicized? I feel like there’s decent overlap between Warren 2020 supporters and Garcia 2021 supporters, at least among people I know. Anecdotal though.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The Wiley and Garcia’s bases Venn diagram are about a circle.

Are they? my impression is that Garcia voters are more moderate than Wiley's.

It’s the #plans

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1402424882068086790?s=21

Progressive consolidation continues.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1402500037033316356?s=19

Yang down even in an internal. June 1st to 6th

[brucejoel99]

So apparently nobody knows where Eric Adams actually lives, & he might even be living in NJ. First Yang's upstate saga & now this? This election is f**king nuts. In any event, any ideas as to how this may affect him - if at all - with 2 weeks left?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yang down even in an internal. June 1st to 6th

It's neat to know what folks' first choices are, but these polls are meaningless unless they also include second/third/etc. choices and simulated the rest of the RCV process

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is there even a front runner/favorite at this point? Adams and Yang seem ahead, but they could easily fall behind

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

Ugh.

No way I could support Wiley despite AOC's endorsement if this vile piece of excrement is supporting her.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there even a front runner/favorite at this point? Adams and Yang seem ahead, but they could easily fall behind

The nature of their present candidacies seems doomed to lose via reallocation. But yes, there is no frontrunner - especially since transfers made everything more complex.