NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Getting tighter...

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1392654217593212928?s=21

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but I feel like counting will be an absolute nightmare. New York is already particularly terrible at it, and RCV adds another layer of complication.

[KaiserDave]

Adams is very clearly surging to tie or pass Yang. And finally we have numbers to prove that the Morales campaign is still very weak outside of twitter.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So what are the chances for the candidates?

At this point? Basically 50-50 for Yang and Adams. Morales is the only other candidate trending up at the moment, but she has yet to top 10% in any poll and mostly seems like a pet candidate of the Extremely Online left. She'd have a slim chance in a standard race with seven people if high turnout among that wing happened, but not with ranked-choice.

What about Wiley?

She's been consistently unable to get any real traction. She reminds me a lot of Harris and Warren in the POTUS race, in that she looks great on paper but is consistently not people's first choice. She might climb up in ranked choice voting - she's in a pretty good position to come third - but there's no real way for her to break the top two right now.

[KaiserDave]

Wiley looked at Harris's 2020 campaign and said "let's do that."

As for myself I am probably going to rank some combination of Garcia and Morales, but this race is a lost cause.

[Tintrlvr]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but I feel like counting will be an absolute nightmare. New York is already particularly terrible at it, and RCV adds another layer of complication.

Honestly, I'm expecting a complete sh**tshow meltdown where we don't get results until mid-August and no one can explain why.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1392655558520496132?s=20
I guarantee at least one of the questions in the debate will be about his Israel tweets. Wonder how much backlash (if any) he gets from the other candidates.

Crazy how this became a major issue for a mayoral election in an AMERICAN city.

Oh well, imma root for him anyways 

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1392655558520496132?s=20
I guarantee at least one of the questions in the debate will be about his Israel tweets. Wonder how much backlash (if any) he gets from the other candidates.

Crazy how this became a major issue for a mayoral election in an AMERICAN city.

Oh well, imma root for him anyways 

Morales is likely to be the only one to pick a fight over it. Wiley might disagree with his first tweet, but probably not his second. And Stringer has bigger things to worry about.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1392655558520496132?s=20
I guarantee at least one of the questions in the debate will be about his Israel tweets. Wonder how much backlash (if any) he gets from the other candidates.

Crazy how this became a major issue for a mayoral election in an AMERICAN city.

Oh well, imma root for him anyways 

Morales is likely to be the only one to pick a fight over it. Wiley might disagree with his first tweet, but probably not his second. And Stringer has bigger things to worry about.

Stringer's participating? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA




Good luck to him, because boy is he gonna need it lol

[StateBoiler]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but I feel like counting will be an absolute nightmare. New York is already particularly terrible at it, and RCV adds another layer of complication.

Yeah no sh**t.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given this field, NYC is going to get what it deserves.  

Yang is a meme-candidate who is simply not up to the task of being NYC Mayor and whose support for UBI should really be alarming to progressives given how many corporatists express openness to it as a Trojan horse for eliminating the social safety (the argument being that if you get $1,000 per-month, then Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment payments, minimum wage laws, and really any sort of welfare programs are no longer necessary).  

Eric Adams is a vicious anti-Semite (he once accused a Hispanic politician of being a race-traitor for marrying a Jewish woman and used to be a vocal Farrakhan supporter, among other things) who clearly lacks any deeply-held beliefs given how he flip-flopped from running as a fierce critic of police brutality to trying to market himself as the “law and order” candidate while running for Mayor...at least when he’s speaking to certain audiences

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Donovan just outed himself as a disqualifyingly out of touch elitist (although I’ve gotten that vibe from him ever since his dust up about campaign contributions/funds about a month ago).  

Morales sounds like a terminally online, fringe leftist type from what (admittedly little I’ve heard about her), although I don’t know too much about her tbf, so maybe she’s fine.  Idk.  

Wiley doesn’t seem awful, but she lacks experience and I don’t love the idea of putting an at least part-time MSNBC talking head in a position of real importance.  She also seems to be in at least something of a Manhattan bubble in terms of her beliefs about what life is like for the average New Yorker which...doesn’t exactly assuage my aforementioned concerns.  

I don’t really know about the others, but they don’t seem like they have any chance of winning or even cracking the top three.  I guess I’d reluctantly vote for Wiley and then not second-preference anyone.  Eric Adams, Andrew Yang, and Scott Stringer would all be terrible choices for different reasons.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Got any credible sources for this claim?

[LabourJersey]

Given this field, NYC is going to get what it deserves.  

Yang is a meme-candidate who is simply not up to the task of being NYC Mayor and whose support for UBI should really be alarming to progressives given how many corporatists express openness to it as a Trojan horse for eliminating the social safety (the argument being that if you get $1,000 per-month, then Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment payments, minimum wage laws, and really any sort of welfare programs are no longer necessary).  

Eric Adams is a vicious anti-Semite (he once accused a Hispanic politician of being a race-traitor for marrying a Jewish woman and used to be a vocal Farrakhan supporter, among other things) who clearly lacks any deeply-held beliefs given how he flip-flopped from running as a fierce critic of police brutality to trying to market himself as the “law and order” candidate while running for Mayor...at least when he’s speaking to certain audiences

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Donovan just outed himself as a disqualifyingly out of touch elitist (although I’ve gotten that vibe from him ever since his dust up about campaign contributions/funds about a month ago).  

Morales sounds like a terminally online, fringe leftist type from what (admittedly little I’ve heard about her), although I don’t know too much about her tbf, so maybe she’s fine.  Idk.  

Wiley doesn’t seem awful, but she lacks experience and I don’t love the idea of putting an at least part-time MSNBC talking head in a position of real importance.  She also seems to be in at least something of a Manhattan bubble in terms of her beliefs about what life is like for the average New Yorker which...doesn’t exactly assuage my aforementioned concerns.  

I don’t really know about the others, but they don’t seem like they have any chance of winning or even cracking the top three.  I guess I’d reluctantly vote for Wiley and then not second-preference anyone.  Eric Adams, Andrew Yang, and Scott Stringer would all be terrible choices for different reasons.

Why not second preference Garcia, the one candidate you didn't mention?

Also "NYC is getting what it deserves" sounds...harsh?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Got any credible sources for this claim?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/nyregion/scott-stringer-sexual-harassment.html

Given this field, NYC is going to get what it deserves.  

Yang is a meme-candidate who is simply not up to the task of being NYC Mayor and whose support for UBI should really be alarming to progressives given how many corporatists express openness to it as a Trojan horse for eliminating the social safety (the argument being that if you get $1,000 per-month, then Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment payments, minimum wage laws, and really any sort of welfare programs are no longer necessary).  

Eric Adams is a vicious anti-Semite (he once accused a Hispanic politician of being a race-traitor for marrying a Jewish woman and used to be a vocal Farrakhan supporter, among other things) who clearly lacks any deeply-held beliefs given how he flip-flopped from running as a fierce critic of police brutality to trying to market himself as the “law and order” candidate while running for Mayor...at least when he’s speaking to certain audiences

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Donovan just outed himself as a disqualifyingly out of touch elitist (although I’ve gotten that vibe from him ever since his dust up about campaign contributions/funds about a month ago).  

Morales sounds like a terminally online, fringe leftist type from what (admittedly little I’ve heard about her), although I don’t know too much about her tbf, so maybe she’s fine.  Idk.  

Wiley doesn’t seem awful, but she lacks experience and I don’t love the idea of putting an at least part-time MSNBC talking head in a position of real importance.  She also seems to be in at least something of a Manhattan bubble in terms of her beliefs about what life is like for the average New Yorker which...doesn’t exactly assuage my aforementioned concerns.  

I don’t really know about the others, but they don’t seem like they have any chance of winning or even cracking the top three.  I guess I’d reluctantly vote for Wiley and then not second-preference anyone.  Eric Adams, Andrew Yang, and Scott Stringer would all be terrible choices for different reasons.

Why not second preference Garcia, the one candidate you didn't mention?

Also "NYC is getting what it deserves" sounds...harsh?

I don't know enough about Garcia, so maybe.  The "getting what it deserves" part was honestly me venting more than anything else.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Got any credible sources for this claim?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/nyregion/scott-stringer-sexual-harassment.html

So, no. Thanks.

Hopefully more and more people start to treat this allegation with the credulousness it deserves (none.)

Probably too late for his campaign now, though, but I admire him for sticking with it, and for people like Nadler standing with him.

[Real Texan Politics]

Eric Adams is a vicious anti-Semite (he once accused a Hispanic politician of being a race-traitor for marrying a Jewish woman and used to be a vocal Farrakhan supporter, among other things)

If they somehow decide to attack Adams as well for the pro-Israel stance, maybe one of them can hit him on the head with that.

[KaiserDave]

I’m between the Mr. X and Crane camps here on Stringer. But yeah Scott should safe face and drop out.

[SInNYC]

I am back with Stringer (probably behind Morales), unless something more turns up. What we know (according to both parties) is that the two were involved somehow. He was around 40 and she was in her early 30s working on his campaign, both single. Clearly, Stringer felt that they had something while she wasnt into him. There is some question about whether the two were involved before (possibly much before) the campaign when both were in the local D groups, as others have claimed that the two were casually involved. Its possible that she felt they were just flirting in a bar, while he felt that they had potential.

I'm not going to throw out Stringer based on this. Now if there were a good alternative, I would probably vote for that over Stringer just in case there is more evidence that comes out later, whether to make him a predator or even just to detract from his performance as mayor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I am back with Stringer (probably behind Morales), unless something more turns up. What we know (according to both parties) is that the two were involved somehow. He was around 40 and she was in her early 30s working on his campaign, both single. Clearly, Stringer felt that they had something while she wasnt into him. There is some question about whether the two were involved before (possibly much before) the campaign when both were in the local D groups, as others have claimed that the two were casually involved. Its possible that she felt they were just flirting in a bar, while he felt that they had potential.

I'm not going to throw out Stringer based on this. Now if there were a good alternative, I would probably vote for that over Stringer just in case there is more evidence that comes out later, whether to make him a predator or even just to detract from his performance as mayor.

I mean, she’s accused him of groping her.  The allegation isn’t that he was flirting in a bar, it’s that he committed sexual assault.

[SInNYC]

I am back with Stringer (probably behind Morales), unless something more turns up. What we know (according to both parties) is that the two were involved somehow. He was around 40 and she was in her early 30s working on his campaign, both single. Clearly, Stringer felt that they had something while she wasnt into him. There is some question about whether the two were involved before (possibly much before) the campaign when both were in the local D groups, as others have claimed that the two were casually involved. Its possible that she felt they were just flirting in a bar, while he felt that they had potential.

I'm not going to throw out Stringer based on this. Now if there were a good alternative, I would probably vote for that over Stringer just in case there is more evidence that comes out later, whether to make him a predator or even just to detract from his performance as mayor.

I mean, she’s accused him of groping her.  The allegation isn’t that he was flirting in a bar, it’s that he committed sexual assault.

The flirting sentence was referring to any prior relationship they may or may not have had, not the accusation.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Given this field, NYC is going to get what it deserves.  

Yang is a meme-candidate who is simply not up to the task of being NYC Mayor and whose support for UBI should really be alarming to progressives given how many corporatists express openness to it as a Trojan horse for eliminating the social safety (the argument being that if you get $1,000 per-month, then Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment payments, minimum wage laws, and really any sort of welfare programs are no longer necessary).  

Eric Adams is a vicious anti-Semite (he once accused a Hispanic politician of being a race-traitor for marrying a Jewish woman and used to be a vocal Farrakhan supporter, among other things) who clearly lacks any deeply-held beliefs given how he flip-flopped from running as a fierce critic of police brutality to trying to market himself as the “law and order” candidate while running for Mayor...at least when he’s speaking to certain audiences

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Donovan just outed himself as a disqualifyingly out of touch elitist (although I’ve gotten that vibe from him ever since his dust up about campaign contributions/funds about a month ago).  

Morales sounds like a terminally online, fringe leftist type from what (admittedly little I’ve heard about her), although I don’t know too much about her tbf, so maybe she’s fine.  Idk.  

Wiley doesn’t seem awful, but she lacks experience and I don’t love the idea of putting an at least part-time MSNBC talking head in a position of real importance.  She also seems to be in at least something of a Manhattan bubble in terms of her beliefs about what life is like for the average New Yorker which...doesn’t exactly assuage my aforementioned concerns.  

I don’t really know about the others, but they don’t seem like they have any chance of winning or even cracking the top three.  I guess I’d reluctantly vote for Wiley and then not second-preference anyone.  Eric Adams, Andrew Yang, and Scott Stringer would all be terrible choices for different reasons.

'Anyone But Yang, Adams & Stringer!'?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given this field, NYC is going to get what it deserves.  

Yang is a meme-candidate who is simply not up to the task of being NYC Mayor and whose support for UBI should really be alarming to progressives given how many corporatists express openness to it as a Trojan horse for eliminating the social safety (the argument being that if you get $1,000 per-month, then Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment payments, minimum wage laws, and really any sort of welfare programs are no longer necessary).  

Eric Adams is a vicious anti-Semite (he once accused a Hispanic politician of being a race-traitor for marrying a Jewish woman and used to be a vocal Farrakhan supporter, among other things) who clearly lacks any deeply-held beliefs given how he flip-flopped from running as a fierce critic of police brutality to trying to market himself as the “law and order” candidate while running for Mayor...at least when he’s speaking to certain audiences

Stringer is experienced and sounds progressive enough on the issues (at least from what I’ve read), but he’s a sex predator, so he’s obviously unfit for this or any other office to put it mildly.  

Donovan just outed himself as a disqualifyingly out of touch elitist (although I’ve gotten that vibe from him ever since his dust up about campaign contributions/funds about a month ago).  

Morales sounds like a terminally online, fringe leftist type from what (admittedly little I’ve heard about her), although I don’t know too much about her tbf, so maybe she’s fine.  Idk.  

Wiley doesn’t seem awful, but she lacks experience and I don’t love the idea of putting an at least part-time MSNBC talking head in a position of real importance.  She also seems to be in at least something of a Manhattan bubble in terms of her beliefs about what life is like for the average New Yorker which...doesn’t exactly assuage my aforementioned concerns.  

I don’t really know about the others, but they don’t seem like they have any chance of winning or even cracking the top three.  I guess I’d reluctantly vote for Wiley and then not second-preference anyone.  Eric Adams, Andrew Yang, and Scott Stringer would all be terrible choices for different reasons.

'Anyone But Yang, Adams & Stringer!'?

That’s basically where I’m at now lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s Change, but...

https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1392911692359618562?s=21

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Interesting how Change's Post-NYT endorsement RCV simulation has Yang and Adams tied for the 7th through 10th rounds. Guess a 50-50 split is better than 53 Adam-47 Yang?

I'm really curious what the crosstabs look like.

Adams Strongest Among African Americans; Yang’s Support Is Broader

While Adams is in the top four among all major racial and ethnic groups, his lead is due primarily to his strength among African American voters: 41% plan to rank him first.

Andrew Yang, meanwhile, is the first choice of 34% of Asian American voters -- higher than his support among any other major demographic group. But he is in first or second place among nearly all gender, age, and racial/ethnic groups, and in all five boroughs.

[Suburbia]

Interesting how Change's Post-NYT endorsement RCV simulation has Yang and Adams tied for the 7th through 10th rounds. Guess a 50-50 split is better than 53 Adam-47 Yang?

I'm really curious what the crosstabs look like.

Adams Strongest Among African Americans; Yang’s Support Is Broader

While Adams is in the top four among all major racial and ethnic groups, his lead is due primarily to his strength among African American voters: 41% plan to rank him first.

Andrew Yang, meanwhile, is the first choice of 34% of Asian American voters -- higher than his support among any other major demographic group. But he is in first or second place among nearly all gender, age, and racial/ethnic groups, and in all five boroughs.

NYC mayoral elections come down to race and ethnicity. Adams, Wiley and McGuire will do well with Black voters. Yang will do well with Asian voters. Black and Asians don't get along in NYC, Yang will HAVE to address that