NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

[KaiserDave]

Is the WFP endorsement?
A little bird told me they were going for Dianne today....perhaps not?

Update: it is, yes!!!

[warandwar]

Why isn't Eric Adams gaining traction? Is it because McGuire is in his lane of moderate black voters in Queens and Brooklyn? Is it because he is a former cop?

Is it because he sucks?

How does he suck?

Because he's allied with the independent Democrat coalition that helped the Republicans nuke rent control laws and affordable housing in NY.

That's inherently an oxymoron. Even though Adams and the IDC suck for other reasons.

Let me guess, you're going to tell me how allowing predatory developers to triple the rents in some neighborhoods in 20 years actually made the housing affordable? Save it.

No, that didn't work either--to the extent that the power dynamics are as you suggest. But there are, in fact, other alternatives to your band-aid solution which helps *very few* people at the expense of many more--probably including you.

Cite:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/03/09/after-a-year-berlins-experiment-with-rent-control-is-a-failure
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-older-tenants-in-manhattan-get-biggest-boost-from-rent-regulations-11560344400
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr-edge-featd-article-061520.html
https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/rent-control/
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.125
7/aer.20181289
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb00850.x
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119099921630
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119006000635?via%3Dihub
http://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/

I mean the real world fact in NYC is that rent controlled apartments dropped by about 65% in ten years, which coincided with an explosion in the cost of rent and predatory development. You can argue about the correlation, but entire neighborhoods that were once working class and affordable, like Long Island City, the East Village, and Fort Greene, have been turned into absolute gentrified luxury condo nightmares, and it priced hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers out of their homes and neighborhoods.

Obviously making it illegal to raise rent lowers rent. Blairite's point is that it causes shortages and screws over people who can't find a rental.

In other words, the market should serve gentrifiers, not long term residents who want to stay in their homes of 20 years.  Got it.

[AGA]

Why isn't Eric Adams gaining traction? Is it because McGuire is in his lane of moderate black voters in Queens and Brooklyn? Is it because he is a former cop?

Is it because he sucks?

How does he suck?

Because he's allied with the independent Democrat coalition that helped the Republicans nuke rent control laws and affordable housing in NY.

That's inherently an oxymoron. Even though Adams and the IDC suck for other reasons.

Let me guess, you're going to tell me how allowing predatory developers to triple the rents in some neighborhoods in 20 years actually made the housing affordable? Save it.

No, that didn't work either--to the extent that the power dynamics are as you suggest. But there are, in fact, other alternatives to your band-aid solution which helps *very few* people at the expense of many more--probably including you.

Cite:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/03/09/after-a-year-berlins-experiment-with-rent-control-is-a-failure
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-older-tenants-in-manhattan-get-biggest-boost-from-rent-regulations-11560344400
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr-edge-featd-article-061520.html
https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/rent-control/
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.125
7/aer.20181289
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb00850.x
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119099921630
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119006000635?via%3Dihub
http://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/

I mean the real world fact in NYC is that rent controlled apartments dropped by about 65% in ten years, which coincided with an explosion in the cost of rent and predatory development. You can argue about the correlation, but entire neighborhoods that were once working class and affordable, like Long Island City, the East Village, and Fort Greene, have been turned into absolute gentrified luxury condo nightmares, and it priced hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers out of their homes and neighborhoods.

Obviously making it illegal to raise rent lowers rent. Blairite's point is that it causes shortages and screws over people who can't find a rental.

In other words, the market should serve gentrifiers, not long term residents who want to stay in their homes of 20 years.  Got it.

Artificially creating obstacles for people moving in is terrible for the local economy.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Scott is amazing as usual.

Unfortunately nobody cares about any of this.

New York City is full of idiots. The average Yang voter probably gushingly approves of Cuomo because of the press fawning in the past year and hates De Blasio because the media tells them to. Never mind that Cuomo has been fighting De Blasio to take a sh**t on the MTA and flip the city for a profit for years now.

Let's not forget name recognition means more than anything.

Do you have any evidence of this???

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

The WFP isn’t a real political party, they’re only relevant here because of fusion laws

[Canis]

538 has a confidence interval about Yang and the race
https://youtu.be/auRNy_OBKwg

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

The WFP isn’t a real political party, they’re only relevant here because of fusion laws

But you don't have to worry about the Republican nominee in a current-day New York City general election, so if they disagree with the Democratic candidate of choice in the plausible event Andrew Yang wins the primary, why don't they run Stringer in the general?

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

The WFP isn’t a real political party, they’re only relevant here because of fusion laws

But you don't have to worry about the Republican nominee in a current-day New York City general election, so if they disagree with the Democratic candidate of choice in the plausible event Andrew Yang wins the primary, why don't they run Stringer in the general?

They could, I think they've done that before. It's plausible.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

The WFP isn’t a real political party, they’re only relevant here because of fusion laws

But you don't have to worry about the Republican nominee in a current-day New York City general election, so if they disagree with the Democratic candidate of choice in the plausible event Andrew Yang wins the primary, why don't they run Stringer in the general?

They could, I think they've done that before. It's plausible.

They have, though not in the mayoral race. I wouldn't expect it to happen in this mayoral race, either. None of the three candidates they endorsed are the sort of candidates the WFP will go to the mat for, and at the least Stringer wouldn't go along with it anyway.

[warandwar]

Why isn't Eric Adams gaining traction? Is it because McGuire is in his lane of moderate black voters in Queens and Brooklyn? Is it because he is a former cop?

Is it because he sucks?

How does he suck?

Because he's allied with the independent Democrat coalition that helped the Republicans nuke rent control laws and affordable housing in NY.

That's inherently an oxymoron. Even though Adams and the IDC suck for other reasons.

Let me guess, you're going to tell me how allowing predatory developers to triple the rents in some neighborhoods in 20 years actually made the housing affordable? Save it.

No, that didn't work either--to the extent that the power dynamics are as you suggest. But there are, in fact, other alternatives to your band-aid solution which helps *very few* people at the expense of many more--probably including you.

Cite:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/03/09/after-a-year-berlins-experiment-with-rent-control-is-a-failure
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-older-tenants-in-manhattan-get-biggest-boost-from-rent-regulations-11560344400
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr-edge-featd-article-061520.html
https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/rent-control/
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.125
7/aer.20181289
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb00850.x
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119099921630
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119006000635?via%3Dihub
http://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/

I mean the real world fact in NYC is that rent controlled apartments dropped by about 65% in ten years, which coincided with an explosion in the cost of rent and predatory development. You can argue about the correlation, but entire neighborhoods that were once working class and affordable, like Long Island City, the East Village, and Fort Greene, have been turned into absolute gentrified luxury condo nightmares, and it priced hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers out of their homes and neighborhoods.

Obviously making it illegal to raise rent lowers rent. Blairite's point is that it causes shortages and screws over people who can't find a rental.

In other words, the market should serve gentrifiers, not long term residents who want to stay in their homes of 20 years.  Got it.

Artificially creating obstacles for people moving in is terrible for the local economy.

"Artificial obstacle" = 70 year old black grandmother who held down the neighborhood during the 80s and 90s only to be removed so neighborhood can be filled with the Job Creators.
Once you start talking to tenants in NYC, you see what the Bloomberg years created and why the backlash has been so intense.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

The WFP isn’t a real political party, they’re only relevant here because of fusion laws

But you don't have to worry about the Republican nominee in a current-day New York City general election, so if they disagree with the Democratic candidate of choice in the plausible event Andrew Yang wins the primary, why don't they run Stringer in the general?

They could, I think they've done that before. It's plausible.

They have?

They just need to grow a set of balls. I have so little respect for them following the 2018 governor election where they endorsed Cuomo - a guy they literally hated. That was such an embarassing about-face in political terms that party leaders should've resigned or been forced out. And what did they get for endorsing Cuomo? His stooges in state government literally tried to put them out of business which did not work this time but as collateral damage killed every other 3rd party in New York outside of the Conservative Party (which unlike the New York WFP have in the past showed they have a spine and will run their own guy instead of being a rubber stamp).

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1382152274110210052?s=20

Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

The WFP isn’t a real political party, they’re only relevant here because of fusion laws

But you don't have to worry about the Republican nominee in a current-day New York City general election, so if they disagree with the Democratic candidate of choice in the plausible event Andrew Yang wins the primary, why don't they run Stringer in the general?

They could, I think they've done that before. It's plausible.

They have?

They just need to grow a set of balls. I have so little respect for them following the 2018 governor election where they endorsed Cuomo - a guy they literally hated. That was such an embarassing about-face in political terms that party leaders should've resigned or been forced out. And what did they get for endorsing Cuomo? His stooges in state government literally tried to put them out of business which did not work this time but as collateral damage killed every other 3rd party in New York outside of the Conservative Party (which unlike the New York WFP have in the past showed they have a spine and will run their own guy instead of being a rubber stamp).

For some races, I think they have. But yes endorsing Cuomo was lame and pathetic.

[The Ex-Factor]

Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?

I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.

Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.

I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.

This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

Got any thoughts on Yang hate? I admit I am more inclined to support him because he is Asian, but I do think he'd be a more positive, competent and imaginative leader than the rest of the field. However I do think some of the criticisms of him, such as his presidential campaign's bro culture and that bad op-ed about Asian Americans having to prove their American-ness are legitimate. But they seem incommensurate with the level of hatred that he garners from twitter and heavily online people.

edit: Also don't think any of the criticism of him is racially motivated, which is good?

[KaiserDave]

Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?

I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.

Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.

I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.

This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

Got any thoughts on Yang hate? I admit I am more inclined to support him because he is Asian, but I do think he'd be a more positive, competent and imaginative leader than the rest of the field. However I do think some of the criticisms of him, such as his presidential campaign's bro culture and that bad op-ed about Asian Americans having to prove their American-ness are legitimate. But they seem incommensurate with the level of hatred that he garners from twitter and heavily online people.

edit: Also don't think any of the criticism of him is racially motivated, which is good?

I used to think like you do (@Blairite ), but what does that even mean? Positive. Imaginative. These are meaningless buzzwords that mean nothing when it comes to the grit and skill needed to navigate city politics. Competent? Scott Stringer has served at every conceivable level of city government with immense success. Hey, Eric Adams is bad but he's been a Borough President. Diane Morales was in charge of non profits that make Yang's look irrelevant by comparison. Kathryn Garcia managed the largest sanitation department in the world and worked in the grind of mid level city bureaucracy. Shaun Donovan was HUD Secretary and OMB Chair.

What was Yang? Was a fairly successful businessman who ran a few non profits and a presidential campaign.

Competent? Maybe? More competent? Hilarious idea.

[KaiserDave]

Can't even say a remotely positive word about Yang in here without getting grilled for it

Either respond earnestly or just say you're not actually interested in a dialogue and/or don't like other opinions.

Edit: lol

[Suburbia]

What percentage of the vote does Republicans get in November?

17% 25%?

Do they win Staten Island by 4 points?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?

I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.

Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.

I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.

This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

Got any thoughts on Yang hate? I admit I am more inclined to support him because he is Asian, but I do think he'd be a more positive, competent and imaginative leader than the rest of the field. However I do think some of the criticisms of him, such as his presidential campaign's bro culture and that bad op-ed about Asian Americans having to prove their American-ness are legitimate. But they seem incommensurate with the level of hatred that he garners from twitter and heavily online people.

edit: Also don't think any of the criticism of him is racially motivated, which is good?

Reminds me of the VP hate on Atlas, although I think the Kamala hate on here was a bit more rooted in her race and gender. Some of the Yang hate might be racially/ethnically motivated (not really on Twitter so I can't assess that front), but I don't think it's a factor on Atlas. I get (and kind of agree with) what he was trying to say in that op-ed, but yeah it wasn't going to jive well with Asian Americans who've experienced more overt racism and bullying from non-Asians.

He would definitely be a more positive and competent leader than the 2016 GOP presidential primary candidate his campaign is reminiscent of (not that that means much). Haven't been following the race super closely, but I don't think the support he's garnered from landlords says as much about how his adminstration would go as people are suggesting.

[LabourJersey]

Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?

I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.

Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.

I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.

This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

Got any thoughts on Yang hate? I admit I am more inclined to support him because he is Asian, but I do think he'd be a more positive, competent and imaginative leader than the rest of the field. However I do think some of the criticisms of him, such as his presidential campaign's bro culture and that bad op-ed about Asian Americans having to prove their American-ness are legitimate. But they seem incommensurate with the level of hatred that he garners from twitter and heavily online people.

edit: Also don't think any of the criticism of him is racially motivated, which is good?

Reminds me of the VP hate on Atlas, although I think the Kamala hate on here was a bit more rooted in her race and gender. Some of the Yang hate might be racially/ethnically motivated (not really on Twitter so I can't assess that front), but I don't think it's a factor on Atlas. I get (and kind of agree with) what he was trying to say in that op-ed, but yeah it wasn't going to jive well with Asian Americans who've experienced more overt racism and bullying from non-Asians.

He would definitely be a more positive and competent leader than the 2016 GOP presidential primary candidate his campaign is reminiscent of (not that that means much). Haven't been following the race super closely, but I don't think the support he's garnered from landlords says as much about how his adminstration would go as people are suggesting.

Not sure if that's the best comparison. People online weren't fans of Harris because they felt she wasn't the type of progressive/had the type of background that people wanted in a Democratic nominee.

People dislike Yang because he's not qualified to be Mayor, and people also dislike how much he's dominating the talk about the mayoral race (which has pretty dramatically cut off the oxygen for non-Yang candidates, which is exaggerated since the lack of ground game cause of COVID).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JCColtin/status/1382721427376324608?s=20

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Interesting new interaction with Yang. (NSFW)

[Lief 🗽]

Tremendous new poll!

Yang 26
Adams 13
Stringer 11
Wiley 10
Donovan 7
McGuire 6
Garcia 4
Morales 3

Yang 61
Stringer 39

Yang 59
Adams 41

Yang 68
Wiley 32

Yang 73
Donovan 27

[Suburbia]

If Yang goes down, Stringer or Adams may rise....

Adams is a center-left Democrat who was a cop.....in this climate....he will perform well with Black men and Black middle class voters left in NYC who are not anticop, but he probably will depress turnout in Williamsburg and Greenwich Village who are anticop.....

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yang ain't going down. He's lapping the field.