NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[tagimaucia]

I'm not much of a Yang fan at all, but anyone who thinks there's some huge groundswell out there of people who actively dislike Yang (beyond people who would dislike any Democrat) spends way too much time online imo.  

Among a tiny sliver of extremely high-information voters / NYC politics junkies, sure-- among the general population, I don't think the evidence is there for any such phenomenon.

[Pollster]

A new poll is in for this race's democratic primary.

Core Decision Analytics/Fontas Advisors
January 20-25
842 likely voters
MoE: 3.38%

Andrew Yang 28%
Eric Adams 17%
Scott Stringer 13%
Shaun Donovan 8%
Maya Wiley 8%
Kathryn Garcia 2%
Ray McGuire 2%
Dianne Morales 2%
Zach Iscol 1%
Undecided/don't know 19%

Fascinating how this race has an extremely similar shape to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary (and frankly the 2016 GOP one as well).

[Roll Roons]

A new poll is in for this race's democratic primary.

Core Decision Analytics/Fontas Advisors
January 20-25
842 likely voters
MoE: 3.38%

Andrew Yang 28%
Eric Adams 17%
Scott Stringer 13%
Shaun Donovan 8%
Maya Wiley 8%
Kathryn Garcia 2%
Ray McGuire 2%
Dianne Morales 2%
Zach Iscol 1%
Undecided/don't know 19%

Fascinating how this race has an extremely similar shape to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary (and frankly the 2016 GOP one as well).

Name rec is a helluva drug, as it was for Biden and Trump.

[KaiserDave]

I'm not much of a Yang fan at all, but anyone who thinks there's some huge groundswell out there of people who actively dislike Yang (beyond people who would dislike any Democrat) spends way too much time online imo.  

Among a tiny sliver of extremely high-information voters / NYC politics junkies, sure-- among the general population, I don't think the evidence is there for any such phenomenon.

I always said the Twitter Yang hate was meaningless, but I'm telling you from real life interactions, there is a substantial amount of Yang skepticism in the general electorate.

[brucejoel99]

A new poll is in for this race's democratic primary.

Core Decision Analytics/Fontas Advisors
January 20-25
842 likely voters
MoE: 3.38%

Andrew Yang 28%
Eric Adams 17%
Scott Stringer 13%
Shaun Donovan 8%
Maya Wiley 8%
Kathryn Garcia 2%
Ray McGuire 2%
Dianne Morales 2%
Zach Iscol 1%
Undecided/don't know 19%

88% of voters have not heard a lot about RCV, including 34% who said they've heard "nothing at all." With that in mind, here's who voters say they might, probably, or would definitely consider voting for:

Yang 90%
Adams 89%
Stringer 89%
Donovan 87%
Wiley 85%
Garcia 81%
Morales 73%
Iscol 70%
McGuire 67%

New Yang City.

[Zaybay]

This is probably an important facet of the poll that has yet to be mentioned:

Of the 842 likely primary voters polled, 84% have heard of Yang, while 66% have heard of Stringer and 60% know Adams by name.

Donovan, Wiley and Garcia are far less well-known, despite each having had experience in government, with Donovan having served as a former top official under President Obama, Wiley as one of Mayor de Blasio’s top legal advisers and Garcia as the city’s former sanitation commissioner. Despite their experience, they are household names to only 33% of those polled. Even fewer voters have heard of McGuire, a former Citigroup exec, and Morales, who headed a non-profit, with only 25% recognizing their names.

[LabourJersey]

I'm not much of a Yang fan at all, but anyone who thinks there's some huge groundswell out there of people who actively dislike Yang (beyond people who would dislike any Democrat) spends way too much time online imo.  

Among a tiny sliver of extremely high-information voters / NYC politics junkies, sure-- among the general population, I don't think the evidence is there for any such phenomenon.

I don't think it's necessarily about dislike for Yang: it's skepticism that he would be a competent mayor.

He can talk about a "humanity-focused economy" and mention UBIs and that casino on Governor's Island, but that doesn't really make people think Yang can take on the very real problems that New York City faces

[Suburbia]

Any chances Christine Quinn enters the race and shakes up the campaign?

She'd be a more tougher mayor than de Blasio....

Also, any chance the Republicans look for someone more serious than Curtis Sliwa? He is a poor man's Bo Dietl.....he is right on the crime issues, but he isn't to be taken seriously because of his foolishness

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFgkV020d9M

I am surprised Andrew Lanza or Paul Massey don't enter, they would put up a respectable 25%-30% of the vote in November.

Eric Ulrich does not look like a mayoral leader. He may be too "puny or beta" for the GOP base on Staten Island, Brooklyn.

[Suburbia]

I'm not much of a Yang fan at all, but anyone who thinks there's some huge groundswell out there of people who actively dislike Yang (beyond people who would dislike any Democrat) spends way too much time online imo.  

Among a tiny sliver of extremely high-information voters / NYC politics junkies, sure-- among the general population, I don't think the evidence is there for any such phenomenon.

I don't think it's necessarily about dislike for Yang: it's skepticism that he would be a competent mayor.

He can talk about a "humanity-focused economy" and mention UBIs and that casino on Governor's Island, but that doesn't really make people think Yang can take on the very real problems that New York City faces

The question also remains if Yang has the stamina to deal with the ever powerful police unions-----they neutered de Blasio and I think only Adams and Wiley and maybe Stringer can handle Lynch and the Long Island brigade.

[Oryxslayer]

This is probably an important facet of the poll that has yet to be mentioned:

Of the 842 likely primary voters polled, 84% have heard of Yang, while 66% have heard of Stringer and 60% know Adams by name.

Donovan, Wiley and Garcia are far less well-known, despite each having had experience in government, with Donovan having served as a former top official under President Obama, Wiley as one of Mayor de Blasio’s top legal advisers and Garcia as the city’s former sanitation commissioner. Despite their experience, they are household names to only 33% of those polled. Even fewer voters have heard of McGuire, a former Citigroup exec, and Morales, who headed a non-profit, with only 25% recognizing their names.

It's important, but perhaps not for the right reasons. The primary is in four months and the pandemic won't miraculously go away by then. More people will be vaccinated, but that won't be enough to hold the rallies and demonstrations low name-rec progressives need to get traction. Advertisements and activity on all platforms, TV, Social, and Viral, matters more than ever. So there is therefore no guarantee, with the expensive NYC market, that everyone will hit high name recognition. I have already seen one DSA activist basically put out a call for another candidate because Morales isn't apparently getting the money she needs to raise that name rec.

[KaiserDave]

I did not know that Eric Adams wants to abolish summer vacation

[Oryxslayer]

Maps for where various NYC candidates have received their financial support so far. No data on Yang yet unfortunately. 

https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cunymap-2021/

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I did not know that Eric Adams wants to abolish summer vacation

I always thought having one long break for school is dumb. You always spend the first few weeks, even up to a month just going back over stuff because you forgot it in the past 2 months.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/02/17/a-freer-de-blasio-convenes-labor-leaders-for-private-meeting-on-mayors-race-1364097

Very interesting article on Mayor de Blasio's preferences. TL:DR

Adams: Likes, particularly his "story"
Stringer: Has beef with him but would be okay if he won
Wiley: Likes but doesn't think she can win
Yang: Skeptical that he's ahead, not sure about him
Bloomberg-like candidates (McGuire/Yang?): Very opposed to, wants a pro labor not pro business mayor

[Lambsbread]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/02/17/a-freer-de-blasio-convenes-labor-leaders-for-private-meeting-on-mayors-race-1364097

Very interesting article on Mayor de Blasio's preferences. TL:DR

Adams: Likes, particularly his "story"
Stringer: Has beef with him but would be okay if he won
Wiley: Likes but doesn't think she can win
Yang: Skeptical that he's ahead, not sure about him
Bloomberg-like candidates (McGuire/Yang?): Very opposed to, wants a pro labor not pro business mayor

I think it would be great if labor leaders could coalesce around one candidate to block Yang from getting the nomination. It's just tough to imagine that happening because so many of these candidates are cut from the same cloth and have flaws.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I'm pulling for McGuire but either this thing is safely Yang's or RCV is gonna cause something wild to happen.

[Duke of York]

I'm pulling for McGuire but either this thing is safely Yang's or RCV is gonna cause something wild to happen.

All polls ive seen show Yang winning once preferences are factored in.

[Not Me, Us]

Is nobody in New York concerned that Yang has no relevant experience? Being Mayor of NYC is a difficult job and I really don't think Yang is up to the task.

[brucejoel99]

Is nobody in New York concerned that Yang has no relevant experience? Being Mayor of NYC is a difficult job and I really don't think Yang is up to the task.

To be fair, I just don't think that's a big concern for many people because it's obvious he's not being willfully ignorant about what the job will entail like a certain somebody was for the last 4 years when it came to the presidency. That is, he knows it'd be a hard job but he still has a vision that he wants to implement, & it's not like he wouldn't be willing to surround himself with advisers who'd know how to run & navigate their local bureaucracy in order to help implement his agenda.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I want Yang to win, but the constant whiplash I've gotten on this thread in the last 4 days has been aching.

It's gonna be a long primary.

Almost a week later and this still rings true.

Day 1: "He's not taking this seriously at all"
Day 2: "He's doing a good job so far!"
Day 3: "I'm finding myself really annoyed by Yang"
Day 4: "I'm finding myself really endeared to Yang!"
Day 5: "He's gonna lose so badly"
Day 6: Poll comes out showing Yang on top

And repeat

Looks like we're in day 3 or 5 of the cycle. Which means we should be getting a new poll this weekend  

[Never Made it to Graceland]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/02/17/a-freer-de-blasio-convenes-labor-leaders-for-private-meeting-on-mayors-race-1364097

Very interesting article on Mayor de Blasio's preferences. TL:DR

Adams: Likes, particularly his "story"
Stringer: Has beef with him but would be okay if he won
Wiley: Likes but doesn't think she can win
Yang: Skeptical that he's ahead, not sure about him
Bloomberg-like candidates (McGuire/Yang?): Very opposed to, wants a pro labor not pro business mayor

I messaged his Instagram page asking him to primary Cuomo but they didn't open it

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I'm pulling for McGuire but either this thing is safely Yang's or RCV is gonna cause something wild to happen.

Curious what you like about him? A citibank exec who's friends with the Kochs is quite a bit different from the other endorsements you have listed.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I'm pulling for McGuire but either this thing is safely Yang's or RCV is gonna cause something wild to happen.

Curious what you like about him? A citibank exec who's friends with the Kochs is quite a bit different from the other endorsements you have listed.

Formerly supported and volunteered for Yang's presidential campaign but I just have a bad gut feeling about how he'll transition to a Mayoral position, especially in a city like NYC with so many other people holding power and influence outside of you.

I love some of his ideas, The People's Bank especially, but I find McGuire to be the more pragmatic option. He'll be a corporate capitalist hack, but he'll be doing it in that later DeBlasio-esque way of it having at least a little bit of class consciousness.

It's more of a fear Yang be will ate alive by red tape and the dirty politics of the city.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I'm pulling for McGuire but either this thing is safely Yang's or RCV is gonna cause something wild to happen.

Curious what you like about him? A citibank exec who's friends with the Kochs is quite a bit different from the other endorsements you have listed.

Formerly supported and volunteered for Yang's presidential campaign but I just have a bad gut feeling about how he'll transition to a Mayoral position, especially in a city like NYC with so many other people holding power and influence outside of you.

I love some of his ideas, The People's Bank especially, but I find McGuire to be the more pragmatic option. He'll be a corporate capitalist hack, but he'll be doing it in that later DeBlasio-esque way of it having at least a little bit of class consciousness.

It's more of a fear Yang be will ate alive by red tape and the dirty politics of the city.

Interesting. I also am skeptical about Yang's ability to navigate city government.

[brucejoel99]

"I said MATH, not read!" In all seriousness, though, this is pretty bad:

https://twitter.com/elizashapiro/status/1362489804257124362