NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Do we know what time the RCV simulations are being dumped tomorrow? Also aren't absentees going to start reporting tomorrow as well?

[wbrocks67]

Pardon my confusion, but I'm still not sure what we're getting today? Can someone explain (and when we're getting absentees/are they being dumped all at once)

+ what time we're expecting anything today?

[wbrocks67]

Well, it was nice to think Garcia had a huge chance for a second. Hopefully these revised results don't mess up things too much but it sounds like it might just be some typos and the final #s should stand/be close?

If the actual # is still Adams +2, i have to imagine Garcia pulls ahead with absentees.

Which like others have said, is going to make pundits look like jokes *AGAIN* after they all fawned over Adams the day after acting as if he had the whole wrapped up

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea why they decided to release the result this way.  It seems to me they should first
a) count the absentee ballots once all of them are cured and then release the combined first round results then
b) do the round by round RCV and then release the results

it is not clear that the sequence of candidates being eliminated would be same once you add in the absentee ballots so this entire exercise  is a waste of time

I agree. They should have waited until after the curing deadline and only released RCV results the week of Jul 12.

However, people who dont understand the reason for the delay would be yammering away about how it takes so long to count.

Yeah, it doesn't really make sense to release any RCV numbers before the total initial account (early + in person + election day + absentee) are all accounted for.

Also, why are we not getting absentee #s for another week? Wtf is this weekly rollout thing they are doing?

[wbrocks67]

Dave is trying really hard to compensate for the fact that he thought Adams was going to win.

Seems to me that Dave is analyzing the data he has in front of him as well as ever. Not his fault the NYC BOE is such a clusterf—k. And Adams very well still could win. Anyone who says otherwise based on some extremely faulty and erroneously released data is kidding themselves.

Correct me if I'm wrong though, but wasn't the missing Bronx data included in yesterday's erroneous dump?

There was 142k ballots added. 135k were the dummy test ones, and 7K were reportedly those missing Bronx votes. So technically weren't they already added yesterday?

[wbrocks67]

Dave is trying really hard to compensate for the fact that he thought Adams was going to win.

this.

[wbrocks67]

Which seems to mean that in the end, when the 135K votes are deleted, it really won't change the general trajectory of the race that we saw yesterday and that Adams/Garcia will likely still be close in the final 2 again.

[wbrocks67]

Are we still getting the fixed tabulations today?

MTE. They said they'd have a new update today...

[wbrocks67]

Yep, since things stand exactly where they did, and absentees seem to favor Garcia, she def seems to be the favorite here.

It turns out the Yang/Garcia alliance probably was the thing that put her over the edge, too.

[wbrocks67]

Dave is finally addressing his copium

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1410664750850191366

[wbrocks67]

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.

Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

[wbrocks67]

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

[wbrocks67]

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.

Thanks. Are we expected to get the updated RCV another day though I assume?

[wbrocks67]

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

[wbrocks67]

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Never make the mistake of thinking that said markets make any decisions on the basis of logic.

They're trying to say that the absentee ballots that have been processed thru so far are unimpressive for Garcia, which A) would go against conventional wisdom, B) did not seem the case from the 24K or whatever it was that were talked about and C) they haven't all been formally counted yet

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully we get a swift Garcia announcement this afternoon

[wbrocks67]

Betting odds are now Adams 64%, Garcia 24%.

I will LOVE if Garcia wins and the betting markets are proven ridiculous after all (though they also had Susan Rice as the #1 pick for VP the day Kamala was announced, so..)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ndhapple/status/1412467219024560133?s=20

So add a MOE of ~3,700 to whatever is released today. Reminder some mail ballots will exhaust for a variety of reasons, so there will not be 120K Adams vs Garcia votes.

ugh watch the margin be under that lmao

[wbrocks67]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

PI is 72-28 Adams which makes no earthly sense because that movement wasn't based on anything real, but I digress.

I'd presume that actual odds here are still 50-50 (at worst for Garcia, 55-45 Adams; at best, Tilt Garcia).

It's *possible* that someone with inside knowledge is betting on Adams. There is, generally speaking, nothing preventing someone who works at the BOE and knows the results from betting on them before the results are made public. You can see that happening sometimes in the immediate aftermath of poll closings or shortly before results announcements - especially when results are released as a large batch. (UK by-election betting is notorious for huge last-second swings to the the party that wins before the result is announced since they release all in one go so insiders can make a big profit.) However, I do tend to agree that it's probably a thinly traded market with values based on nothing.

Yeah, it's technically possible, but this rise in Adams has maintained itself since his campaign put out that now-incorrect memo a few days back, & just has yet to revert because - at least going off of the comment section - many Adams holders are just convinced that it can't be anything but Adams at this point, even when you have people like Nate Cohn - whose own paper got their hands on that partial Manhattan data, & maybe more for all we know - saying that all of this is insane.

It also seems like people are planning on buying a bunch of Adams and then dumping it at the last moment?

[wbrocks67]

It's past 5PM ET now...

[wbrocks67]

This is ridiculous. How do you plan on releasing them at 'brunch' time and then go from that to 7:30?

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1412519019228377089

[wbrocks67]

Ugh. By only 1%. Damn.

[wbrocks67]

While some of these trends could be real, I think any analysis is incredibly premature considering there's what, at least 100K mail-ins left to count?