Mi-Trafalgar (R): Trump+2
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Author Topic: Mi-Trafalgar (R): Trump+2  (Read 6479 times)
neostassenite31
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« Reply #25 on: August 28, 2020, 10:21:06 AM »
I know I said the same thing on the previous WI poll, but the good people of this forum really have a religious and magnetic obsession with Trafalgar polling 
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BigSerg
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« Reply #26 on: August 28, 2020, 10:25:57 AM »

Here most accept that such an advantage is impossible due to the level of political polarization ...
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WD
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« Reply #27 on: August 28, 2020, 10:28:25 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:25:57 AM

Here most accept that such an advantage is impossible due to the level of political polarization ...
It’s not. Democrats won the house popular vote by 8.6 in 2018. Saying Biden could do slightly better than that and win by 9 isn’t some crazy hack prediction lol
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2020, 10:29:46 AM »
Biden’s not losing MI with those national leads in this environment, but people seriously underestimate how weird the map could get if our current electoral alignment/trends continue on steroids + how dependent Biden is on the Sun Belt states, especially if the race tightens (contesting AZ/GA/FL isn’t "optional" for him or just "icing on the cake").
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #29 on: August 28, 2020, 10:33:43 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on August 28, 2020, 10:29:46 AM
Biden’s not losing MI with those national leads in this environment, but people seriously underestimate how weird the map could get if our current electoral alignment/trends continue on steroids + how dependent Biden is on the Sun Belt states, especially if the race tightens (contesting AZ/GA/FL isn’t "optional" for him or just "icing on the cake").

At this point, I would suggest a "Florida first" strategy.
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BigSerg
7sergi9
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« Reply #30 on: August 28, 2020, 10:33:51 AM »
Quote from: Western Democrat on August 28, 2020, 10:28:25 AM
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:25:57 AM

Here most accept that such an advantage is impossible due to the level of political polarization ...
It’s not. Democrats won the house popular vote by 8.6 in 2018. Saying Biden could do slightly better than that and win by 9 isn’t some crazy hack prediction lol

That comparison is totally crazy.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #31 on: August 28, 2020, 10:35:08 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:25:57 AM

Here most accept that such an advantage is impossible due to the level of political polarization ...

Polarization does not mean a 50-50 electorate whatsoever. It just means the overwhelming majority of the electorate is locked in on who they are voting for. You can absolutely have polarization and a large Dem lead in an election at the same time.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2020, 10:35:50 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2020, 10:38:53 AM by SenatorCouzens »
What are the reasons for so many Democrats on this forum thinking that Michigan is in the bag for Biden? Especially because Trump won it in 2016. And while the Democrats had a good year here in 2018, it was hardly a romp (Republicans retained control of both houses of the state legislature and Stabenow won Senate by only a 6.5% margin).

Democrats don't own this state. While Biden is an ok fit, this race is in flux.

It's. difficult for me to argue that Trump will win Michigan at this point, but it's even more difficult for me to argue that Biden has this in this bag.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #33 on: August 28, 2020, 10:36:01 AM »
Quote from: Bland Neoliberal Consensus Democrat on August 28, 2020, 10:33:43 AM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on August 28, 2020, 10:29:46 AM
Biden’s not losing MI with those national leads in this environment, but people seriously underestimate how weird the map could get if our current electoral alignment/trends continue on steroids + how dependent Biden is on the Sun Belt states, especially if the race tightens (contesting AZ/GA/FL isn’t "optional" for him or just "icing on the cake").

At this point, I would suggest a "Florida first" strategy.

No Democratic presidential candidate will accept a Florida first strategy until Biden wins it.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #34 on: August 28, 2020, 10:37:11 AM »
Quote from: SenatorCouzens on August 28, 2020, 10:35:50 AM
What are the reasons for so many Democrats on this forum thinking that Michigan is in the bag for Biden? Especially because Trump won it in 2016. And while the Democrats had a good year here in 2018, it was hardly a romp (Republicans retained control of both houses of the state legislature and Stabenow won Senate by only a 6.5% margin).

Democrats don't own this state. While Biden is an ok fit this race is in flux.

It's not so much that Michigan is in the bag, but that it is probably closer to being so than PA and WI and that those two states are a better use of resources for both campaigns (along with certain sunbelt states depending on who you ask).
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #35 on: August 28, 2020, 10:38:45 AM »
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Crumpets
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« Reply #36 on: August 28, 2020, 10:42:35 AM »
Turns out Trump pulled out of the state because he's just so confident there!
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BigSerg
7sergi9
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« Reply #37 on: August 28, 2020, 10:45:40 AM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on August 28, 2020, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:25:57 AM

Here most accept that such an advantage is impossible due to the level of political polarization ...

Polarization does not mean a 50-50 electorate whatsoever. It just means the overwhelming majority of the electorate is locked in on who they are voting for. You can absolutely have polarization and a large Dem lead in an election at the same time.

Yeah Biden Win 90-10 Wink
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YE
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« Reply #38 on: August 28, 2020, 10:49:16 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:33:51 AM
Quote from: Western Democrat on August 28, 2020, 10:28:25 AM
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:25:57 AM

Here most accept that such an advantage is impossible due to the level of political polarization ...
It’s not. Democrats won the house popular vote by 8.6 in 2018. Saying Biden could do slightly better than that and win by 9 isn’t some crazy hack prediction lol

That comparison is totally crazy.

Not when midterm turnout almost mired presidential turnout.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #39 on: August 28, 2020, 10:55:24 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on August 28, 2020, 10:37:11 AM
It's not so much that Michigan is in the bag, but that it is probably closer to being so than PA and WI and that those two states are a better use of resources for both campaigns (along with certain sunbelt states depending on who you ask).

People keep saying this, but I don’t really buy that MI is closer to gone than PA, and it’s not like WI is going to resist the same trends which give Biden an advantage in MI or supposedly make MI "gone" for Trump. Trump absolutely cannot afford to ignore MI under any scenario when his position in other battleground states (especially AZ/FL/PA, also the NE-02 district) is just as if not more tenuous and the long-term trends are at least in the party's favor in this particular state (unlike AZ or even FL).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: August 28, 2020, 10:57:01 AM »
This poll just smashes the inflated polls that show Biden up 10 which he isnt
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #41 on: August 28, 2020, 11:05:40 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2020, 11:10:14 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on August 28, 2020, 10:55:24 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on August 28, 2020, 10:37:11 AM
It's not so much that Michigan is in the bag, but that it is probably closer to being so than PA and WI and that those two states are a better use of resources for both campaigns (along with certain sunbelt states depending on who you ask).

People keep saying this, but I don’t really buy that MI is closer to gone than PA, and it’s not like WI is going to resist the same trends which give Biden an advantage in MI or supposedly make MI "gone" for Trump. Trump absolutely cannot afford to ignore MI under any scenario when his position in other battleground states (especially AZ/FL/PA, also the NE-02 district) is just as if not more tenuous and the long-term trends are at least in the party's favor in this particular state (unlike AZ or even FL).

I could well be wrong, but will wager the polls are the way they are because MI has one-time, state-specific trends, partly thanks to Trump's high profile spats with Whitmer and the associated ventilator debacle. In polls, at least, MI has moved a bit further from PA since the end of April.
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Buzz
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« Reply #42 on: August 28, 2020, 11:05:56 AM »
Great Honor! Thank you.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #43 on: August 28, 2020, 11:08:03 AM »
Quote from: ElectionWatcher25 on August 28, 2020, 10:06:47 AM
I definitely understand the hate Trafalgar gets, but Michigan is their best state for polling. They have a great track record here, as other posters have pointed out.

Do you believe in the results of this poll?
Simple yes or no, will do.
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Rand
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« Reply #44 on: August 28, 2020, 11:09:30 AM »

*honer

Please accept this poll as charity in exchange for the sea of double-digit Biden leads washing over the United States today.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #45 on: August 28, 2020, 11:14:16 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 28, 2020, 09:59:23 AM
Maybe because he isn't leading by 8 points nationally + MI trending hard R?

It’s trending so Hard R that two Republicans seats in Congress flipped D in 2018.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #46 on: August 28, 2020, 11:23:23 AM »
We've had such poor pollsters thus far. Are Change Research, Emerson, Trafalgar, and RW the best we can get?
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #47 on: August 28, 2020, 11:24:59 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:33:51 AM
Quote from: Western Democrat on August 28, 2020, 10:28:25 AM
Quote from: 7sergi9 on August 28, 2020, 10:25:57 AM

Here most accept that such an advantage is impossible due to the level of political polarization ...
It’s not. Democrats won the house popular vote by 8.6 in 2018. Saying Biden could do slightly better than that and win by 9 isn’t some crazy hack prediction lol

That comparison is totally crazy.

Not really with the exception of Iowa and ME-02 the 2018 house map is a pretty good 2020 prediction.
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n1240
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« Reply #48 on: August 28, 2020, 11:28:42 AM »
Can any Trafalgar defenders justify how a poll that simultaneously had Trump+14 approval and Stabenow+9 in Senate ballot is reasonable (referring to their 2018 poll).
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Sbane
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« Reply #49 on: August 28, 2020, 11:34:25 AM »
Yeah, Trump will get 47% of the vote in Michigan in the end. This poll is believable. Tongue
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