2007 Governor's Races

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looking a bit ahead, it looks like 2007 might be interesting in this area. Unless he messes up badly somewhere Barbour will easily be elected in Mississippi. The other two aren't quite the same though.

In Louisiana, Blanco is pretty much screwed, and honestly the only way we're going to hold this one is we can eliminate her in the first round (not too difficult under Louisiana's electoral law). But even if that happens, holding it will probably be a long shot, unless the candidate is Breaux. Basically if Breaux steps in, we hold it, otherwise they take it.

In Kentucky, its the opposite situation, unless he can pull a miracle Fletcher is a dead man walking. The question is who will run against him, Chandler would probably beat him this time but he might want to stay in his House seat and run for Senate sometime when one of the seats open up. The other likely candidate is Mongiardo, the guy who almost beat Bunning. My guess is that one of them will run and beat Fletcher, the other will run for the next open Senate seat.

So what do you think?

[PBrunsel]

For Louisiana, was Jindal's ethnicity or age used against him durring the campaign? Could they be used again against him in 2007?

[Q]

My predictions:

MS: Barbour

LA: Jindal (or Breaux)

KY: State Treasurer Jonathan Miller

[jokerman]

It would be fantastic if we could get Breaux to run.

[Democratic Hawk]

It would be fantastic if we could get Breaux to run.

I wish he'd stayed on in the Senate

Dave

[Galactic Overlord]

Talk of Breaux running seems to have died down the past month.  Apparently, he's quite comfortable in the private sector. 

As far as Jindal's ethnicity being used against him, I've read his polling numbers have improved significantly in rural areas that he lost last time.  He got 48% in 2003 anyway, so he doesn't need that much more to win. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

KY: Chandler runs again and defeats Fletcher

MS: Barbour cruises to re-election

LA: Landrieu is challenged by another Democrat in the open primary and goes on to fail to get into the run-off, her party ouster then narrowly loses to Jindal

[Ben.]

 
As things stand...

MS: Barbour was not very popular pre-Katrina, and his bounce seems to be fading now, however he's an incumbent republican in a strongly republican state, if a strong democrat like Moore where to run the race would be highly competative - but i doubt that will happen and i think Barbour will win by a clear but not a huge margin.

KY: Fletcher wants to run again and he will lose, a number of strong democrats, Chandler, Miller, Henry etc... look likely to consider running and one will almost certainly win (personally I’d favour either Miller or Chandler… but I think its better to keep Chandler in the House). O/T it'd be nice to see Daniel Mongiardo run for a state-wide office, he proved my initial impressions of him wrong and seems a pretty credible politician, Lt.Gov? AG? ST? SA?

LA: Baring a Breaux candidacy I think it highly likely that Blanco will be dumped in favour of Jindal in ’07, however there is still a chance, however slim, that she might some how survive as she did in ’03 and she has plenty of time to try and salvage her position. Currently though, Blanco is more likely to lose than win and Jindal more likely to win than lose.

It would be fantastic if we could get Breaux to run.

I wish he'd stayed on in the Senate

Dave

 

Ditto… he was the last really great Conservative Democrat

Don’t get me wrong about folks like Lincoln and Landrieu both a solid, credible and competent senators with moderate voting records, but its probably Mark Pryor who comes closest to inheriting Breaux’s mantle.   
   

LA: Landrieu is challenged by another Democrat in the open primary and goes on to fail to get into the run-off, her party ouster then narrowly loses to Jindal

Dont you mean Blanco?

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

It is a shame to see the first Republican Governor of Kentucky in 32 years have so many troubles once in office.  Hopefully, should Fletcher lose re-election, it will not be so long until the next Republican Governor is elected.

[HardRCafé]

The other likely candidate is Mongiardo, the guy who almost beat Bunning.

I think Mongiardo still would find some way to lose.

[Adlai Stevenson]

LA: Landrieu is challenged by another Democrat in the open primary and goes on to fail to get into the run-off, her party ouster then narrowly loses to Jindal

Dont you mean Blanco?

[/quote]

Aaargh. Yeah.  I always get those two mixed up!

[nini2287]

KY-Fletcher doesn't run for re-election (or is successfully hallenged in the primary).  GOP hold.

MS-GOP hold.

LA-Blanco survives a primary challenge (Jefferson/Nagin/Mitch Landrieu?) but is defeated by Jindal in the general election.  GOP gain.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Fletcher has just announced he is running for re-election.  Prospective Democrats look like Daniel Mongiardo, Ben Chandler and Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

[Galactic Overlord]

LA-Blanco survives a primary challenge (Jefferson/Nagin/Mitch Landrieu?) but is defeated by Jindal in the general election.  GOP gain.

Nagin wouldn't have a prayer statewide.  Jefferson was already trounced in 1999 by Mike Foster.  Mitch, if elected mayor, will probably not leave his post one year into his job, if he loses, he'll be slightly damaged by the loss.  Breaux  seems to like private life and probably won't run.  The only viable Democratic candidates I can think of would be former Rep. Chris John and treasurer John Kennedy. But it'll be difficult for any Democrat to put a dent in Jindal's star power.  His supporters will work their tails off to ensure he doesn't lose again.

[Ben.]

KY-Fletcher doesn't run for re-election (or is successfully hallenged in the primary).  GOP hold.

Even an open race (which is unlikley) would favour the Dems, what GOP candidates are there who cant be matched by stronger Democrat opponants?

[7,052,770]

Moore could take down Barbour, but I seriously doubt he'll run.  It's a real shame, but he's probably waiting to run for the Senate in 2008 (which he probably won't win if Hillary's at the top of the ticket.)

That being said, I don't know who we're even going to nominate to face Barbour...AG Jim Hood is relatively popular and the only plausible candidate I can think of.

[nini2287]

KY-Fletcher doesn't run for re-election (or is successfully hallenged in the primary).  GOP hold.

Even an open race (which is unlikley) would favour the Dems, what GOP candidates are there who cant be matched by stronger Democrat opponants?

I'm not that familiar with Kentucky politicans so I couldn't answer that question, but Democrats seem to have no success in the state with the losses of Clooney, Mongiardo and whatever that guy who ran against Northup's name is and the fact that their only Democratic Congressman is a Blue Dog.

[Reaganfan]

My thoughts:

MS: Barbour by a comfortable margin.
LA: Jindal somewhat close.
KY: Chandler somewhat close.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

KY-Fletcher doesn't run for re-election (or is successfully hallenged in the primary).  GOP hold.

Even an open race (which is unlikley) would favour the Dems, what GOP candidates are there who cant be matched by stronger Democrat opponants?

I'm not that familiar with Kentucky politicans so I couldn't answer that question, but Democrats seem to have no success in the state with the losses of Clooney, Mongiardo and whatever that guy who ran against Northup's name is and the fact that their only Democratic Congressman is a Blue Dog.

Clooney lost because he was way too liberal for the district (which is actually the most conservative district in the state, the fact that even a Democrat as conservative as Lucas held it was a bit of a fluke), and that his main claim to fame was that his son is famous, especially since his son is much more liberal than he was. Northrup barely held on like she keeps doing because she's fairly entrenched (I hope the Democrats get a very strong well funded opponent to her now, this is probably our best chance to take her out) and her opponents are getting weaker. As for Mongiardo, the guy went from a race he was considered to have absolutely no chance in to a 2 point loss, hardly something to be ashamed of.

Of course the only Congressman is a Blue Dog, Kentucky is going to elect liberals. But it can still elect Democrats. I think every state office except the Governor and one other is still held by the Democrats (and they held every one until the 2003 elections). It's really the Republicans that lack strong candidates, just about every one they got is already in office and most don't want to leave. A bunch of those House districts are vulnerable once open too, especially the 2nd, (Mongiardo is from there too, hopefully he takes a stab at it if it's soon). Fletcher's victory was basically a fluke to begin with.