Change Research: AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI - Biden +2, +3, +6, +1, +3, +5

[wbrocks67]

I really can't take Change seriously when they have both his COVID-19 approval and job approval at nearly 50% in these states.

[wbrocks67]

There are right now some political reporters on twitter who tout these polls as evidence that Trump is closing the gap. Do these people even read a poll before opening their mouths? I get it that they are desperate for a horserace but to which point?

which is especially funny because in 4/6 of the states, he's up compared to two weeks ago

[wbrocks67]

Aren't they usually one of Trump's better pollsters? These are somewhat weak for Biden if he's running at +8 nationally as their national poll suggests. I wish they would've included Texas and Ohio.

Yeah, besides like one week, Change has generally been pretty bullish on Trump.

i.e. his approvals nearly being 50% in the "battleground" group

[wbrocks67]

And of course Nate Silver pouring gasoline on fire by saying how "mediocre" are these polls and that the numbers look like 2016.
These people are so thirsty for a close election narrative, it becomes almost embarrassing.

The fact that this group of polls - which 4/6 of them have Biden UP compared to 2 weeks ago - brought down the 538 forecast by a whole 3% is absolutely ridiculous and shows how junk that model is.

[wbrocks67]

Not bad considering it's Change, though Biden's lead in PA seems too small. AZ for sure has been kind of stubborn so far. Biden has had leads there for several months, but they gap has changed little or not at all regardless of whether the national average is Biden +4 or Biden +9.

The AZ poll also is only like 300 RV, so it's even more junk than the rest of them tbh.