Change Research: AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI - Biden +2, +3, +6, +1, +3, +5
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Change Research: AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI - Biden +2, +3, +6, +1, +3, +5
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Author Topic: Change Research: AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI - Biden +2, +3, +6, +1, +3, +5  (Read 2605 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: August 26, 2020, 05:08:02 AM »
« edited: August 26, 2020, 05:11:59 AM by VARepublican »

AZ (344 LV)

Biden 49% (+4)
Trump 47% (+3)

FL (1262 LV)

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 46% (+2)

MI (809 LV)

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 44% (+1)

NC (560 LV)

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 47% (-1)

PA (984 LV)

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 46% (+2)

WI (925 LV)

Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 44% (+1)

https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-12/

Biden leads by 8 nationally
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2020, 05:25:38 AM »

So.... they shifted to an LV Screen and now Biden is looking like sweeping all of the Trump '16 "Swing States" plus Obama '08 States (Minus IND)?

We are barely two Months from the Election, so one must assume fundamentals must have to change dramatically for the incumbent to claw away at those margins in states to create an EV win.

Is there something I'm missing here?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2020, 05:26:05 AM »

I really can't take Change seriously when they have both his COVID-19 approval and job approval at nearly 50% in these states.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2020, 06:13:01 AM »

Sampling period: August 21-23, 2020
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2020, 06:30:11 AM »

There are right now some political reporters on twitter who tout these polls as evidence that Trump is closing the gap. Do these people even read a poll before opening their mouths? I get it that they are desperate for a horserace but to which point?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2020, 06:33:08 AM »

There are right now some political reporters on twitter who tout these polls as evidence that Trump is closing the gap. Do these people even read a poll before opening their mouths? I get it that they are desperate for a horserace but to which point?

which is especially funny because in 4/6 of the states, he's up compared to two weeks ago
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politicallefty
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2020, 06:40:25 AM »

Aren't they usually one of Trump's better pollsters? These are somewhat weak for Biden if he's running at +8 nationally as their national poll suggests. I wish they would've included Texas and Ohio.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2020, 07:11:54 AM »

Aren't they usually one of Trump's better pollsters? These are somewhat weak for Biden if he's running at +8 nationally as their national poll suggests. I wish they would've included Texas and Ohio.

Yeah, besides like one week, Change has generally been pretty bullish on Trump.

i.e. his approvals nearly being 50% in the "battleground" group
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2020, 08:13:29 AM »

And of course Nate Silver pouring gasoline on fire by saying how "mediocre" are these polls and that the numbers look like 2016.
These people are so thirsty for a close election narrative, it becomes almost embarrassing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2020, 08:16:58 AM »

And of course Nate Silver pouring gasoline on fire by saying how "mediocre" are these polls and that the numbers look like 2016.
These people are so thirsty for a close election narrative, it becomes almost embarrassing.

The fact that this group of polls - which 4/6 of them have Biden UP compared to 2 weeks ago - brought down the 538 forecast by a whole 3% is absolutely ridiculous and shows how junk that model is.
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redjohn
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2020, 08:43:03 AM »

Decent numbers for Biden, especially because both he and Trump's vote shares are way up compared to 2016. There's much less room for undecided voters to cause upsets, while it can still obviously happen.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2020, 08:54:52 AM »

Not bad considering it's Change, though Biden's lead in PA seems too small. AZ for sure has been kind of stubborn so far. Biden has had leads there for several months, but they gap has changed little or not at all regardless of whether the national average is Biden +4 or Biden +9.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2020, 08:59:25 AM »

Not bad considering it's Change, though Biden's lead in PA seems too small. AZ for sure has been kind of stubborn so far. Biden has had leads there for several months, but they gap has changed little or not at all regardless of whether the national average is Biden +4 or Biden +9.

The AZ poll also is only like 300 RV, so it's even more junk than the rest of them tbh.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2020, 09:05:36 AM »

Aren't they usually one of Trump's better pollsters? These are somewhat weak for Biden if he's running at +8 nationally as their national poll suggests. I wish they would've included Texas and Ohio.

It's a stretch for Biden to win TX, when Hegar is trailing 6 to 9 pts. She is a Betoesque, not Castro candidate, but Ds can win some Congressional districts, TX. But, Ds should win OH, since Ermst is still losing in IA
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Pulaski
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2020, 09:07:40 AM »

So a pollster that's usually bullish on Trump finds him down in every major swing state.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2020, 09:10:47 AM »

There are right now some political reporters on twitter who tout these polls as evidence that Trump is closing the gap. Do these people even read a poll before opening their mouths? I get it that they are desperate for a horserace but to which point?

If it scares Democrats into making sure they vote, I honestly prefer the horserace narrative to "LOL there's no way Trump can win! Feel free to vote 3rd party to send a message to the corrupt DNC!"
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2020, 09:11:17 AM »

Not bad considering it's Change, though Biden's lead in PA seems too small. AZ for sure has been kind of stubborn so far. Biden has had leads there for several months, but they gap has changed little or not at all regardless of whether the national average is Biden +4 or Biden +9.

The AZ poll also is only like 300 RV, so it's even more junk than the rest of them tbh.

True, but it's pretty much in line with most other AZ polls. There has been a pattern showing Biden ahead by tilt/lean margins for several months now, despite the fact the national race has shifted as a result of the pandemic. In states like FL, Biden has improved compared to winter and spring, while AZ hasn't moved at all.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2020, 09:23:54 AM »

Polling like this during the Dem "convention" is a true concern for Biden, pending whether the Rep "convention" has any impact on the race. 
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2020, 09:25:04 AM »

Polling like this during the Dem "convention" is a true concern for Biden, pending whether the Rep "convention" has any impact on the race. 

Ok and Trump needs to win MN, WI or PA and he is behind in everyone of them
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2020, 09:33:59 AM »

A bit too close for comfort, honestly.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2020, 12:11:43 PM »

It's weird that Biden is doing so well in North Carolina here, relative to other polls where Trump has closed the gap a bit. Then again I'm not sure of how much stock to put into Change Research anymore. I suppose it could be a lot worse overall.
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Soaring_Eagle
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2020, 12:15:32 PM »

Trump down by 3 in Florida and 3 in Pennsylvania,
2 in North Carolina and 1 in Arizona

before the RNC, straight after the DNC

After the RNC and after the debates which will
tighten the race Trump has a very good shot
At winning all of them

FiveThirtyEight has Trump as the favourite to win NC, and 46% to win AZ,
he just needs FL and one more state like PA, WI or MN

this election will be very close
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woodley park
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« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2020, 01:50:42 PM »

Trump down by 3 in Florida and 3 in Pennsylvania,
2 in North Carolina and 1 in Arizona

before the RNC, straight after the DNC

After the RNC and after the debates which will
tighten the race Trump has a very good shot
At winning all of them

FiveThirtyEight has Trump as the favourite to win NC, and 46% to win AZ,
he just needs FL and one more state like PA, WI or MN

this election will be very close

I see the Russia trolls are starting to come out of the woodwork.
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Soaring_Eagle
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« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2020, 04:40:08 PM »

So because I said the election will be close I am a Russian Troll ?

Democrats and their conspiracy theories again

The Russia Hoax was over I thought ?

Or will you blame the Russians again when your loose the election ?

Itís funny how democrats keep saying that Trump wonít accept
the results of the election but they said that Trump canít win
without voter fraud and cheating......
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WD
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« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2020, 04:41:42 PM »

So because I said the election will be close I am a Russian Troll ?

Democrats and their conspiracy theories again

The Russia Hoax was over I thought ?

Or will you blame the Russians again when your loose the election ?

Itís funny how democrats keep saying that Trump wonít accept
the results of the election but they said that Trump canít win
without voter fraud and cheating......

It wasnít a hoax. But since your a Republican your probably okay with foreign nation influencing the election.
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