The United States of Corona

[It’s so Joever]

I’ve been thinking about doing this, and basically the idea is that I will be drawing congressional districts based on confirmed Covid-19 cases at a certain point in time instead of population. It’s likely not going to be extremely accurate (due to spotty data in some states) but it may be fun to do. Thoughts?

[RINO Tom]

I think you should do it by positivity rate, personally.  Raw numbers are very misleading, as they are too related to 1) an area's total population and 2) how often that area is testing.

If we were actually interested in a map that showed us the "danger" of the pandemic, I think one of hospitalizations would be far more interesting!  (For example, right now in my old home of Iowa City, swarms of college kids are probably giving each other COVID at the bars ... and it might not even make a dent on the area's hospitals' capacity to withstand a surge, as they'll likely all be fine.)

[It’s so Joever]

I think you should do it by positivity rate, personally.  Raw numbers are very misleading, as they are too related to 1) an area's total population and 2) how often that area is testing.

If we were actually interested in a map that showed us the "danger" of the pandemic, I think one of hospitalizations would be far more interesting!  (For example, right now in my old home of Iowa City, swarms of college kids are probably giving each other COVID at the bars ... and it might not even make a dent on the area's hospitals' capacity to withstand a surge, as they'll likely all be fine.)

Fair enough. If I were trying to get an accurate “danger” map, I would probably also look at deaths along with positivity rates.

My intent really isn’t to show which areas are more dangerous (NYT and Worldometers can do that for you) This is just a fun little side-project, although maybe some interesting discrepancies within states will be present.

[It’s so Joever]

Alright, so I have alloted the districts based on Covid-19 data from August 22nd (a couple days prior in case of reporting discrepancies)
There are 435 in total to match the current US House, but again, these districts are based off of reported Covid-19 cases.
August 2020 Corona-Districts
1: SD, ND, WV, NH, ME, MT, HI, AK, WY, VT, DE, RI (12 total)
2: NM, OR, NE, ID ( 8 )
3: KY, UT, KS (9)
4: CT, CO, AR, IA, OK (20)
5: NV, WA, WI, MN (20)
6: IN, MO, MS (18)
7: (0)
8: MD, MI, SC, VA (32)
9: OH, AL (18)
10: MA, PA (20)
11: TN, LA (22)
12: NC (12)
15: NJ, AZ (30)
17: IL (17)
19: GA (19)
35: NY (35)
46: FL, TX (92)
51: CA (51)

These districts will minimize the number of county splits when possible* and will roughly have around 13,500-14,500 confirmed Covid-19 cases each, The distribution of the districts among the States is based off of data from August 22.

* mainly out of convenience because city level data can be a pain to find.

This isn’t a map of where it is “more or less” dangerous, these are total confirmed cases meaning a place that has zero cases today but was hit hard in March would still look “bad” on the map.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This exercise is weirdly interesting and kind of nauseating at the same time.
Too bad when you have finished the map will likely be greatly outdated in a way that is not even remotely comparable to ordinary population maps.

Anyway, endorsed.

[It’s so Joever]

This exercise is weirdly interesting and kind of nauseating at the same time.
Too bad when you have finished the map will likely be greatly outdated in a way that is not even remotely comparable to ordinary population maps.

Anyway, endorsed.

Indeed, I’ve just started drawing some of the maps, and the discrepancies even within the individual states between certain areas are very disturbing.
And yeah, this exercise will likely be outdated by the time I finish due to the ongoing nature of this emergency.

[It’s so Joever]

Alright the first State drawn is New Mexico with 2 CD's (-1 from normal Cong. Districts)

https://davesredistricting.org/pages/index.html#viewmap::b66329ad-9d4a-40cd-add5-d9195c50aeb8



Summary: As a whole, New Mexico has had less Covid cases per capita than many other States, but the distribution is somewhat uneven here. More than a quarter of Covid-19 cases within the whole State were in two northwestern counties with only 200K people in total (Mckinley and San Juan) These counties also include the Navajo Nation (which was hit extremely hard) which explains the disparity. Overall, the Southern and more rural part of the State has been hit less.

District 1: 676,472 (Blue)

CVAP:
White 40.4%
Hispanic: 35.8%
Native: 21.4%
Other 2.4%

2016 election results (Clinton-Trump-Other)
53.7%-34.7%-11.6%

D+9.86

District 2: 1,415,962 (Dark Green)

CVAP:
White: 46.7%
Hispanic: 45.3%
Other: 8.0%

2016 Election results:
45.4%-42.9%-11.7%

D+0.05

[It’s so Joever]

Oregon: 2CD's (-3)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1effd7af-46e2-44a4-8ff2-58811192ffaa



Summary: Despite being one of the first States hit with Covid-19 in the initial PNW outbreak, Oregon has not been hit that hard at all, and has largely been spared from the worst of the outbreak. I would watch this area in the fall. As expected, the urban district (Portland Metro) has a few more Covid-19 cases per capita than the rest of Oregon, but both are still well below the national average.

District 1: 1,941,506

CVAP:
White: 80.3%
Other: 19.7%

2016 Election Results:
60.2%-29.0%-10.8%

D+14.44

District 2: 2,140,437

CVAP:
White: 87.0%
Other: 13.0%

2016 Election Results:
40.9%-48.2%-10.9%

R+4.2

[It’s so Joever]

Nebraska: 2 CD's (-1)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cb6e4d05-5507-478a-aa6d-995404ca1920




Summary: As usual, Nebraska is uneventful. It has had fewer cases per capita than the average, and that extends across both districts. The distribution is pretty normal (for a virus) with urban/suburban Omaha having more cases per capita than the rural parts. I do expect cases in this state to increase rapidly this fall, but that obviously has no impact on the map above.

District 1: 779,264

CVAP:
White: 82.3%
Other: 17.7%

2016 Election:
43.9%-50.1%-6.0%

R+5.64

District 2: 1,125,496

CVAP:
White: 89.9%
Other: 10.1%

2016 Election:
27.8%-66.6%-5.6%

R+19.47

[It’s so Joever]

(For some reason, my Idaho map is completely glitched out so I will post it later)

Kansas: 3 CD's (-1)


https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf27c169-6e4c-4390-945d-fbf4ca7938bd



Summary: Finally one with a less typical distribution. The most rural and Republican part of the State (Western purple district) is the one with the most cases per capita. This is 100% because of the meatpacking plant outbreaks which were in the news back in May. These cases primarily skewed younger and latino, many of whom didn't vote anyways. The KC area also had more cases per capita as would be expected. Interestingly, Wichita has not been hit hard yet despite it being a "city", and the non-KC Eastern part of Kansas has been faring pretty well as of now.

District 1: 749,847 (KC)

CVAP:
White: 80.6%
Other: 19.4%

2016:
46.6%-44.6%-8.8%

R+3.28

District 2: 1,530,471 (East Kansas)

CVAP:
White: 82.7%
Other: 17.3%

2016:
35.6%-52.2%-8.2%

R+11.72

District 3: 628,458 (West Kansas)

CVAP:
87.2%
Other: 12.8%

2016:
21.5%-72.1%-6.4%

R+27.17

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Putting scary quotes around the word city while describing Wichita is beyond absurd, but I digress.

Good work so far otherwise!

[It’s so Joever]

Putting scary quotes around the word city while describing Wichita is beyond absurd, but I digress.

Good work so far otherwise!

Yeah my bias definitely showed up, Wichita is a city.

[It’s so Joever]

I figured out a way around the issue, so things will proceed as normally from here on out (maybe)

Idaho: 2 CD's (No change)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/dede6fa7-c91c-44ae-81a4-ff754a76c4da



Summary: Idaho is pretty normal in terms of distribution. The Boise area has had a disproportionate number of cases for their population, as would be expected. Rural Idaho has seen significantly less Covid-19 activity.

District 1: 581,657 (Boise)

CVAP:
White: 86.7%
Other: 13.3%

2016:
35.4%-51.4%-13.2%

R+10.5

District 2: 1,106,152 (Rural ID)

CVAP:
White: 86.6%
Other: 13.4%

2016:
23.1%-63.5%-13.4%

R+23.39

[It’s so Joever]

Kentucky: 3 CD's (-3)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1cf47e60-ec19-4ea8-a478-d8c972f275d6



Summary: The State of Kentucky has managed to avoid most of the larger outbreaks, and all districts have had fewer cases than the average for the US. Within the state, the trend seems to be an inverse correlation between #populism and the number of covid-19 cases. Louisville has the most per capita, Western Kentucky is in the middle, while East Kentucky (home to the Cincy burbs, Lexington, and Coal Country) is the lowest per capita.


District 1: 1,097,161 (Greater Louisville+Frankfort)

CVAP:
White: 79.4%
Black: 16.0%
Other: 4.6%

2016:
46.8%-48.0%-5.2%

R+1.76

District 2: 1,737,139 (East KY)

CVAP:
White: 92.1%
Other: 7.9%

2016:
30.9%-64.0%-5.1%

R+17.18

District 3: 1,605,904 (West KY)

CVAP:
White: 90.8%
Other: 9.2%

2016:
24.2%-71.8%-4.0%

R+22.94


And in case Bandit is here, this song is for you and your commune .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHVLkq7jriY

[RINO Tom]

Kentucky: 3 CD's (-3)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1cf47e60-ec19-4ea8-a478-d8c972f275d6



Summary: The State of Kentucky has managed to avoid most of the larger outbreaks, and all districts have had fewer cases than the average for the US. Within the state, the trend seems to be an inverse correlation between #populism and the number of covid-19 cases. Louisville has the most per capita, Western Kentucky is in the middle, while East Kentucky (home to the Cincy burbs, Lexington, and Coal Country) is the lowest per capita.


District 1: 1,097,161 (Greater Louisville+Frankfort)

CVAP:
White: 79.4%
Black: 16.0%
Other: 4.6%

2016:
46.8%-48.0%-5.2%

R+1.76

District 2: 1,737,139 (East KY)

CVAP:
White: 92.1%
Other: 7.9%

2016:
30.9%-64.0%-5.1%

R+17.18

District 3: 1,605,904 (West KY)

CVAP:
White: 90.8%
Other: 9.2%

2016:
24.2%-71.8%-4.0%

R+22.94


And in case Bandit is here, this song is for you and your commune .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHVLkq7jriY

You think Louisville is more populist than Western Kentucky?  And Eastern Kentucky is noticeably less populist than the other two because of the relatively small Cincy suburbs??

I think this would be better without your groundbreaking commentary.

[It’s so Joever]

Kentucky: 3 CD's (-3)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1cf47e60-ec19-4ea8-a478-d8c972f275d6



Summary: The State of Kentucky has managed to avoid most of the larger outbreaks, and all districts have had fewer cases than the average for the US. Within the state, the trend seems to be an inverse correlation between #populism and the number of covid-19 cases. Louisville has the most per capita, Western Kentucky is in the middle, while East Kentucky (home to the Cincy burbs, Lexington, and Coal Country) is the lowest per capita.


District 1: 1,097,161 (Greater Louisville+Frankfort)

CVAP:
White: 79.4%
Black: 16.0%
Other: 4.6%

2016:
46.8%-48.0%-5.2%

R+1.76

District 2: 1,737,139 (East KY)

CVAP:
White: 92.1%
Other: 7.9%

2016:
30.9%-64.0%-5.1%

R+17.18

District 3: 1,605,904 (West KY)

CVAP:
White: 90.8%
Other: 9.2%

2016:
24.2%-71.8%-4.0%

R+22.94


And in case Bandit is here, this song is for you and your commune .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHVLkq7jriY

You think Louisville is more populist than Western Kentucky?  And Eastern Kentucky is noticeably less populist than the other two because of the relatively small Cincy suburbs??

I think this would be better without your groundbreaking commentary.

Inverse.

[RINO Tom]

^ Ah, I read that as “inverse” meaning the opposite as you meant it, and I thought you were making some political thing.  Sorry.

P.S.  I am excited for you to get to Illinois.  As I have mentioned, my dad is a CFO of a hospital system, and he used to work in Peoria, so I am familiar with Central Illinois' healthcare system.  The region has a much bigger population (~2 million) than most people realize, and between Peoria, Bloomington-Normal, Champaign, etc., its hospital capacity is actually really impressive.  Additionally, they have been doing astonishingly well with COVID so far (*knock on wood*).  Champaign, the home of the University of Illinois, is part of what our governor has deemed the "East Central Illinois" region of our state, and their stats are amazing when compared to Chicago, a city that has been doing quite well itself!

TESTS PER 100K RESIDENTS
Chicago (City): 33,698
E. Central IL: 48,581

POSITIVITY RATE (8% Threshold Goal)
Chicago (City): 5.6%
E. Central IL: 1.7%

ICU BED VACANCY RATE (20% Threshold Goal)
Chicago (City): 38.7%
E. Central IL: 47.6%

I saw the other day that the University of Illinois ITSELF conducted 1.5% of all the COVID tests conducted that day in the United States.  My dad said on conference calls that people are really amazed and bewildered by how well Central Illinois has done.

[It’s so Joever]

^ Ah, I read that as “inverse” meaning the opposite as you meant it, and I thought you were making some political thing.  Sorry.

P.S.  I am excited for you to get to Illinois.  As I have mentioned, my dad is a CFO of a hospital system, and he used to work in Peoria, so I am familiar with Central Illinois' healthcare system.  The region has a much bigger population (~2 million) than most people realize, and between Peoria, Bloomington-Normal, Champaign, etc., its hospital capacity is actually really impressive.  Additionally, they have been doing astonishingly well with COVID so far (*knock on wood*).  Champaign, the home of the University of Illinois, is part of what our governor has deemed the "East Central Illinois" region of our state, and their stats are amazing when compared to Chicago, a city that has been doing quite well itself!

TESTS PER 100K RESIDENTS
Chicago (City): 33,698
E. Central IL: 48,581

POSITIVITY RATE (8% Threshold Goal)
Chicago (City): 5.6%
E. Central IL: 1.7%

ICU BED VACANCY RATE (20% Threshold Goal)
Chicago (City): 38.7%
E. Central IL: 47.6%

I saw the other day that the University of Illinois ITSELF conducted 1.5% of all the COVID tests conducted that day in the United States.  My dad said on conference calls that people are really amazed and bewildered by how well Central Illinois has done.

That’s actually very interesting! East Central Illinois isn’t the first place people would think of when they think of good Covid-19 management, but this pandemic has really disproved/challenged a lot of common expectations and stereotypes. I will definitely keep that in mind as I draw the Illinois maps.

[It’s so Joever]

Utah: 3 CD's (-1)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffcdbaed-ed80-468b-b56a-d95971d38c59



Summary: Utah has been doing pretty well with the pandemic due to geographical isolation and a good testing head start in March/April. As in many places, the cities and suburbs have more cases per capita and the rural areas have less. The Native population is disproportionately affected, but they aren't numerous enough (unlike NM) be be extremely noticeable.

District 1: 813,793 (SLC Core)

CVAP:
White: 80.7%
Hispanic: 11.1%
Other: 8.2%

2016:
43.5%-31.5%-25.0%

R+1.92

District 2: 887,504 (SLC Suburbs/Outer towns)

CVAP:
White: 85.1%
Other: 14.9%

2016:
28.4%-42.6%-29.0%

R+18.52

District 3: 1,343,678 (Everything else)

CVAP:
White: 89.1%
Other: 10.9%

2016:
17.0%-51.2%-26.8%

R+32.41

[It’s so Joever]

Oklahoma: 4 CD's (-1)




https://davesredistricting.org/join/5621ddc2-f5d2-45a8-a17f-243fce134a8d

Summary: As typically found, the urban/suburban areas of Oklahoma had more Covid-19 cases per capita, with Tulsa having slightly more than the OKC area. Unlike in other states such as Utah and New Mexico, the Native Americans of Oklahoma seem to have not been very disproportionately affected by Covid-19, especially when comparing to the disparities seen in previous States.

District 1: 862,949 (OKC)

CVAP:
White: 68.3%
Black: 15.6%
Other: 16.1%

2016:
38.9%-54.1%-7.0%

R+ 10.56

District 2: 733,595 (Tulsa)

CVAP:
White: 72.4%
Native: 10.9%
Other: 17.7%

2016:
33.3%-60.8%-5.9%

R+16.5

District 3: 1,171,235 (West Oklahoma)

CVAP:
White: 77.5%
Other: 22.5%

2016:
24.2%-70.1%-5.9%

R+24.4

District 4: 1,150,358 (East Oklahoma)

CVAP:
White: 72.4%
Native: 19.7%
Other: 7.9%

2016:
23.6%-71.6%-4.8%

R+23.26

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this is probably going to end up being a quasi-Dem gerrymander because of rural underrepresentation.

[It’s so Joever]

Connecticut: 4 CD's (-1)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/3ee2d40d-3126-4966-ae9f-be3d12974215

Summary: Connecticut was one of the worst States in March/April, but has since managed to get things under control. Given the original source of Covid-19 in Connecticut came from NYC, it should be no surprise that the cases per capita are correlated with proximity to NYC.

District 1: 894,970 (NW Connecticut)

CVAP:
White: 82.1%
Other: 17.9%

R+2.06


District 2: 626,103 (NYC Suburbs)

CVAP: 
White: 64.5%
Hispanic: 15.9%
Black: 14.9%
Other: 4.7%

D+ 10.76

District 3: 894,730 (Hartford)

CVAP:
White: 68.8%
Hispanic: 14.7%
Black: 12.5%
Other: 4.0%

D+10.93

District 4: 1,165,701 (East Connecticut)

CVAP:
White: 78.4%
Other: 21.6%

D+7.62

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado: 4 CD's (-3)




https://davesredistricting.org/join/a2355346-de22-40da-8af7-3639418ef58b

Summary: As a longtime resident, I definitely could say a lot here, but I will keep it brief. Overall, Colorado has managed to avoid the worst of the crisis kinda like Oregon. The distribution is normal, although what isn't represented really are the meatpacking outbreaks in Weld County. Overall, the boring urban/suburban/rural trends apply here.

District 1: 905,094 (Denver)

CVAP:
White: 62.5%
Hispanic: 23.6%
Other: 13.9%

2016:
71.6%-20.7%-7.7%

D+24.51

District 2: 1,250,728 (East Denver Suburbs)

CVAP:
White: 74.9%
Hispanic: 13.2%
Other: 11.9%

2016:
46.1%-45.1%-7.8%

R+1.73

District 3: 1,606,158 (North Front Range)

CVAP:
White: 83.0%
Hispanic: 12.0%
Other: 5.0%

2016:
51.0%-40.0%-11.0%

D+4.24

District 4: 1,769,160 (Everything else)

CVAP:
White: 77.3%
Hispanic: 15.5%
Other: 7.2%

2016:
36.0%-55.5%-8.5%

R+10.51

[lfromnj]

What population are you using?
2010 Census or 2018 estimates?

[It’s so Joever]

What population are you using?
2010 Census or 2018 estimates?

2018.