2024 Election: Joe Biden/Kamala Harris vs. Charlie Baker/Steve Womack

[Left Wing]

Could Joe Biden defeat Charlie Baker?

[Ferguson97]

Very few candidates could be Baker IMO.

[MATTROSE94]

I would say that Charlie Baker would do very well in New England and would likely carry New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and possibly Vermont if he played his cards right. On the other hand, Charlie Baker would struggle in the South and Southwest and would likely lose Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Charlie Baker would also struggle in the Midwest and would likely lose Ohio, Iowa, Pennslyvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to Joe Biden.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

WTH Why of all people Steve Womack?

[President Biden Democrat]

Both of these tickets are unlikely to happen, especially The Republican ticket. I'd be surprised if Biden runs again in 2024, given he'd be 82 years old. Baker would have a very hard time becoming the GOP nominee, he is way to moderate/liberal for the party, even in 2024.

[😥]

There is no way that Baker wins Connecticut, Rhode Island or Vermont.

My map:

Biden wins

[Left Wing]

WTH Why of all people Steve Womack?

Chair of an important house committee

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

WTH Why of all people Steve Womack?

Chair of an important house committee

Id est a position whence vice presidential candidates do not come from.

Although to be fair it's not particularly more unrealistic than Baker being the presidential nominee, so I can give it to you.

[NewYorkExpress]

Joe Biden Biden/Kamala Harris 50% 436 EV
Charlie Baker/Steve Womack 37% 102 EV
Mike Pence/Rick Santorum 11% 0 EV

Biden wins decisively as conservatives unhappy with Baker's nomination defect to the right-wing ticket of Mike Pence and Rick Santorum.

Baker does begin the process of remaking the political landscape in New England by carrying every state there.

[Alben Barkley]

Joe Biden Biden/Kamala Harris 50% 436 EV
Charlie Baker/Steve Womack 37% 102 EV
Mike Pence/Rick Santorum 11% 0 EV

Biden wins decisively as conservatives unhappy with Baker's nomination defect to the right-wing ticket of Mike Pence and Rick Santorum.

Baker does begin the process of remaking the political landscape in New England by carrying every state there.

Baker would not sweep New England or even win his home state of MA. A presidential election is a very different thing from a gubernatorial election, and not so much as a single county in MA has voted Republican since 1988. Baker almost certainly would have had to pivot at least somewhat to the right to get the nomination, so he would not do that well in liberal states. It’s not like Romney wasn’t trounced in MA despite having once been a popular, moderate governor there. Also remember that even in these states, Pence will get some votes from the disgruntled traditional Republican minority, splitting the vote and spoiling any chance Baker may have there even if he does significantly outrun other Republicans.

Moreover, even if the Republicans are divided with a Pence third party run, Biden still is very unlikely to win states like KY or TN. Pence would have a chance at winning some of these states outright, plus WV and some of the Deep South states. In states like those, I think it would be more like Baker takes votes from Biden than that Pence takes votes from Baker. This is what I think a more realistic map for this scenario looks like:

[Breton Racer]

I really think people on this site overestimate Charlie Baker's appeal past moderate Republicans (a dying breed), Baker would be beaten by Biden for one simple fact, the base would be depressed and Biden is a perfect fit for the Democratic coalition. The Democratic base would come out, hard-core, bedrock Republicans would stay home. The election would be closer than 2020, but Biden would still win. Baker isn't anymore moderate than Mitt Romney is, and he still lost and not in an all too close fashion.

Biden/Harris: 318 EVs (51%)
Baker/Hawley: 220 EVs (47%)

He'd recover somewhat with suburban voters, but the Biden-Harris combination makes suburban voters comfortable enough that Baker's appeal would be limited, plus under the scenario of a Democratic sweep of Washington in 2020, much of Biden's agenda would have been passed.

Baker's weakest region would be the South, conservative voters would probably see Baker as not that much better than Biden, especially if conservative talk radio got to them. Florida and North Carolina would lean Biden, while Baker ran stronger in the Northeast but only winning New Hampshire (Maine could be a very real possibility of a Baker win).

Then there's not to mention a possible conservative third party run, with many conservative voters voting for that ticket. Under that scenario Biden would clobber Baker. I don't think it would be unfounded to see that third party ticket carry a few states. Baker's relative strengths would be more than cancelled out by core republicans voters defecting. The most similar election would be 1912.

Biden/Harris: 467 EVs (51%)
Baker/Hawley: 51 EVs (32%)
Pence/Carlson: 20 EVs (15%)


P.S.: I think those saying that Baker would have a shot at winning the state of Massachusetts in a presidential election are on that sh**t.SERIOUSLY!!!!!