2004 Election with no 9/11

[NewYorkExpress]

This has been done on numerous occasions.

First, I don't think Kerry is the nominee.

Senator Joe Biden/Governor Howard Dean 50.5% 272 EV
President George W. Bush/Vice President Dick Cheney 48.9% 266 EV

The biggest butterfly is that Barack Obama does not give the keynote address at the DNC and thus is not the nominee in 2008.

Biden loses in 2008 to McCain because of the financial crisis, but Democrats win back the White House in 2012 behind a Hillary Clinton/Obama ticket.

[NewYorkExpress]

I have to imagine that W. would win a peace-&-prosperity election pretty easily: he wouldn't have done anything that would've truly motivated the Democratic base like his real-life post-9/11 actions did (i.e. invading Iraq probably wouldn't happen without 9/11), & I can't see the economy being so bad as to ensure a loss or anything.

If Iraq were to somehow still happen (& W. were to still make the same decisions that he made in real life), though, then I think he'd probably lose.

W. actually wasn't all that popular before 9/11, largely owing to the circumstances of his being elected in the first place.

It's not really that hard to picture him losing, though it would be another close election, and the wrong nominee (Hillary for example) could lead to an easy reelection.

The most likely victory map him for him is the exact same map he got in 2000, just with an expanded margin in Florida.