2004 Election with no 9/11
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:47:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  2004 Election with no 9/11
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2004 Election with no 9/11  (Read 804 times)
Don Vito Corleone
bruhgmger2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,268
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 24, 2020, 03:59:02 AM »

How would the 2004 Election have gone without 9/11?
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2020, 07:46:29 PM »

This has been done on numerous occasions.

First, I don't think Kerry is the nominee.



Senator Joe Biden/Governor Howard Dean 50.5% 272 EV
President George W. Bush/Vice President Dick Cheney 48.9% 266 EV

The biggest butterfly is that Barack Obama does not give the keynote address at the DNC and thus is not the nominee in 2008.

Biden loses in 2008 to McCain because of the financial crisis, but Democrats win back the White House in 2012 behind a Hillary Clinton/Obama ticket.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2020, 08:22:50 PM »

I have to imagine that W. would win a peace-&-prosperity election pretty easily: he wouldn't have done anything that would've truly motivated the Democratic base like his real-life post-9/11 actions did (i.e. invading Iraq probably wouldn't happen without 9/11), & I can't see the economy being so bad as to ensure a loss or anything.

If Iraq were to somehow still happen (& W. were to still make the same decisions that he made in real life), though, then I think he'd probably lose.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2020, 08:51:32 PM »

I have to imagine that W. would win a peace-&-prosperity election pretty easily: he wouldn't have done anything that would've truly motivated the Democratic base like his real-life post-9/11 actions did (i.e. invading Iraq probably wouldn't happen without 9/11), & I can't see the economy being so bad as to ensure a loss or anything.

If Iraq were to somehow still happen (& W. were to still make the same decisions that he made in real life), though, then I think he'd probably lose.

W. actually wasn't all that popular before 9/11, largely owing to the circumstances of his being elected in the first place.

It's not really that hard to picture him losing, though it would be another close election, and the wrong nominee (Hillary for example) could lead to an easy reelection.

The most likely victory map him for him is the exact same map he got in 2000, just with an expanded margin in Florida.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2020, 09:48:18 PM »

W was widely expected to be a one-termer before 9/11.
Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,391
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2020, 07:48:59 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2020, 07:55:39 PM by darklordoftech »

- Democrats would probably gain control of Congress in the 2002 midterms

- The issues would likely be the economy, trade, the rusting of the rust belt, immigration, tax cuts, climate change, same-sex marriage, and stem-cell research
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2020, 08:06:12 PM »

Best Case for Bush:



300 EV
238

Worst Case for Bush:



316 EV
222 EV
Logged
President Biden Democrat
mrappaport1220
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 569
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2020, 05:16:47 PM »

I still think Bush would have won. It would have been close again, similar to what actually happened in real life. I agree that Kerry would have not been the nominee. My guess is Howard Dean would be the nominee in this scenario.



Pres. George Bush (R-TX)/Vice Pres. Dick Cheney (R-WY): 296 EV
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)/Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): 242 EV
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2020, 06:39:59 PM »

I'd also add that I think the Democrats would flip the House in 2002 and build on their majority in the Senate. How Bush deals with them and how the Democratic leadership (still Daschle in the Senate, likely Gephardt in the House) deals with him will also impact the outcome of 2004.
Logged
Clarence Boddicker
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 344


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2020, 05:34:18 PM »

I think Hillary runs and is probably the nominee.
Logged
HisGrace
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,496
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2020, 12:08:27 PM »

In modern history incumbent presidents have only lost with a bad economy. With the same conditions as 04 (and they might have been slightly better without 9/11 and Iraq) Bush still wins.

Dems just really seem to be in denial about what a solid position Bush was in 04, both then and afterward.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2020, 12:21:43 AM »



President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) / Senator John Edwards (D-NC) ✓

Gore decides on a rematch amid a post-tech bubble economy and the Federal Marriage Amendment debate. Iraq happens anyway and Gore runs on the side of multilateralism. Environmentalism hurts the ticket in coal country, but the Democrats eke out a narrow victory. The Gore presidency sees a failed attempt to split Iraq in three, Hurricane Katrina, Vice President Edwards' resignation over a personal scandal, and finally the Great Recession.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2020, 11:31:30 AM »

Wouldn't Cheney be dropped?

Cheney did not want the VP position anyway

Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 13 queries.