Did the Brexit vote in 2016 predict Trump's win?

[BaldEagle1991]

Knowing the same tide of working class populism helped Brexit, and that the US & UK are culturally similar, the Brexit Leave side winning, could've foreseen Trump's victory in the US. Did you think this is true?

[Mr. Smith]

yes.

[anthonyjg]

Definitely should've been a warning shot. I don't know if I'd go so far as to say predict though, after all there are enough differences between the two campaigns that Brexit did manage to win a majority of voters. But yes, at the very least people should have realized that there was a genuine possibility of a Trump presidency at that point.

[BaldEagle1991]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Philippine_presidential_election?wprov=sfti1

An overseas non-Western source that could’ve predicted Trump as well: Duterte’s victory. Especially since the Philippines is former Commonwealth and US influence is still strong there.

It wasn’t just Brexit though.

Another thing about it that both Trump supporters and Brexit supporters were polling behind.

[brucejoel99]

'Anti-establishment' turnout was much higher than anticipated in both & resulted in upsets for both, yes.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't think so necessarily (and consider that Leave took more votes than Remain; Trump took less votes than Clinton). However it predicted which areas would swing in each direction.

[Alcibiades]

I think the Brexit map is what UK elections would look like if it had the US’s party system and coalitions (Remain=Dems, Leave=GOP).

[TML]

I think it was a hint of things to come - remember that Michael Moore's July 2016 prediction of a Trump win included what he called the "Rust Belt Brexit," which he indicated that conditions in the upper Midwest were similar to that in Northern England, and since Northern England was instrumental in Brexit, the upper Midwest would likewise be instrumental in Trump winning (which is exactly how things actually played out).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The US and the UK aren't that culturally similar in terms of politics. Although Brexit was fuelled and put over the line by a backlash to globalisation just as Trump's election victory was, the bases for both were long-established and existed for different reasons and the politics that followed was also pretty different in both cases. Comparisons to the early victories of various Western European populists (in addition to Duterte and some others) are probably more informative.

[Pericles]

I think the Brexit map is what UK elections would look like if it had the US’s party system and coalitions (Remain=Dems, Leave=GOP).

Ironically, it seems possible that Remain could have lost in a majority of constituencies with a popular vote win like Hillary Clinton's.

[Alcibiades]

I think the Brexit map is what UK elections would look like if it had the US’s party system and coalitions (Remain=Dems, Leave=GOP).

Ironically, it seems possible that Remain could have lost in a majority of constituencies with a popular vote win like Hillary Clinton's.

Indeed - had Remain won with the same margin Leave won, they certainly would have lost in a clear majority of constituencies, as Leave actually won something like 2/3 of all constituencies. Not that it mattered in a referendum, but the Remain vote suffered the same problems as the Democratic vote - huge margins in inner cities and university towns and more narrow losses in the rural/WWC areas.

[Chips]

Definitely should've been a warning shot. I don't know if I'd go so far as to say predict though, after all there are enough differences between the two campaigns that Brexit did manage to win a majority of voters. But yes, at the very least people should have realized that there was a genuine possibility of a Trump presidency at that point.

[Samof94]

Knowing the same tide of working class populism helped Brexit, and that the US & UK are culturally similar, the Brexit Leave side winning, could've foreseen Trump's victory in the US. Did you think this is true?

It does predict that the election would have been close.

[Motorcity]

It did

I wonder, did the 2019 UK election somehow predict the 2020 US election?

[MT Treasurer]

No, because (among other things) it completely ignores Clinton's unique unpopularity/baggage, which, given the closeness of the race, should be regarded as a decisive factor.

[Flyersfan232]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Philippine_presidential_election?wprov=sfti1

An overseas non-Western source that could’ve predicted Trump as well: Duterte’s victory. Especially since the Philippines is former Commonwealth and US influence is still strong there.

It wasn’t just Brexit though.

Another thing about it that both Trump supporters and Brexit supporters were polling behind.

isnt duterte apart of a left wing party?