2024: AOC vs. Charlie Baker

[Tekken_Guy]

What would a map of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs. Charlie Baker look like?

[Ferguson97]

Fmr. Governor Charlie Baker - 361 EVs / 56.7% PV
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 177 EVs / 40.9 % PV

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New Jersey and Oregon might flip too.

Fmr. Governor Charlie Baker - 361 EVs / 56.7% PV
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 177 EVs / 40.9 % PV

[Nightcore Nationalist]

[Alben Barkley]

I still have a very hard time seeing MA flip, even with Baker and even against AOC. It certainly would be the best possible conditions for such a thing, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Breton Racer]

As much as I like her she would lose, not as badly as many would think. She would still be more likely to win the popular vote than not.

Baker: 320 EVs (48%)
Cortez: 218 EVs (49%)

[AGA]

I think people are overestimating how much an effect individual candidates would have. Both candidates would have to have broad appeal to their respective parties to win the nomination. States like Colorado, Virginia, and Massachusetts aren't abandoning their partisan voting habits.

Baker 328 50% - AOC 210 48%

[Fuzzy Bear]

Assuming that there was no 3rd party conservative candidate it would be an utter shellacking.

There would be ticket-splitting on the order of 1972, when Democrats lost a handful of seats in the House and gained seats in the Senate despite McGovern's awful drubbing.

[Roll Roons]

Assuming that there was no 3rd party conservative candidate it would be an utter shellacking.

There would be ticket-splitting on the order of 1972, when Democrats lost a handful of seats in the House and gained seats in the Senate despite McGovern's awful drubbing.

Why would AOC win New Mexico but not New York? Also would Charlie actually carry Massachusetts or Maryland in a federal race?

[NewYorkExpress]

AOC/Elizabeth Warren 43%
Charlie Baker/Joni Ernst 42%
Mike Pence/Sarah Palin 16%

This one goes to the House (if I'm not mistaken about how redistricting goes).

Baker or Pence probably wins in the House, while depending on who controls the Senate, Ernst or Warren could emerge as VP. My guess is that Republicans will control the Senate, meaning Ernst will be named VP.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Assuming that there was no 3rd party conservative candidate it would be an utter shellacking.

There would be ticket-splitting on the order of 1972, when Democrats lost a handful of seats in the House and gained seats in the Senate despite McGovern's awful drubbing.

Why would AOC win New Mexico but not New York? Also would Charlie actually carry Massachusetts or Maryland in a federal race?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/when-you-cant-stand-your-candidate

AOC obtaining the Democratic nomination for President in 2024 would put the Democrats in a "When You Can't Stand Your Candidate" situation.  As Elliott Abrams (a former Democrat and Scoop Jackson supporter in 1972) laid out the situation:

The party has nominated someone who cannot win and should not be president of the United States. We anticipate a landslide defeat, and then a struggle to take the party back from his team and his supporters and win the following presidential election. Meanwhile, we need to figure out how to conduct ourselves.

AOC would be that kind of candidate.  The Democratic Establishment would shudder at the thought of her nomination, and even the far left would view her as a candidate that would be unlikely to win, given her age, notoriety, and the fact that her views, even now, are on the Far Left of the Democratic Party.  Baker, on the other hand, would be a non-threatening Republican who would obtain a great deal of Democratic support.  There would be defections.  There would be Democrats for Baker.  Indeed, Charlie Baker could argue to many mainstream Democrats that he's closer to them on issues than AOC.  And Baker could work this in a way to where he makes it plain that it's OK to vote for Democrats to Congress.  (Nixon did this most skillfully.)  

It is more likely that AOC would be nominated by the Democrats than it would be that Baker would be nominated by the GOP, strange to say.  If it DID happen, however, I believe that the Democrats would gag on AOC and would seek to distance themselves wherever possible.

[Suburbia]

Baker flips NJ and CT

Middlesex, NJ goes R

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think people are overestimating how much an effect individual candidates would have. Both candidates would have to have broad appeal to their respective parties to win the nomination. States like Colorado, Virginia, and Massachusetts aren't abandoning their partisan voting habits.

Baker 328 50% - AOC 210 48%

I agree about MA, but I think Virginia and Colorado mainly aren't swing states anymore because of the directions of the party. They attract a lot of young urban professionals who lean left but want to keep their way of life. We're not going to see them vote for someone to the left of Sanders based on partisan lean alone.

[AGA]

I think people are overestimating how much an effect individual candidates would have. Both candidates would have to have broad appeal to their respective parties to win the nomination. States like Colorado, Virginia, and Massachusetts aren't abandoning their partisan voting habits.

Baker 328 50% - AOC 210 48%

I agree about MA, but I think Virginia and Colorado mainly aren't swing states anymore because of the directions of the party. They attract a lot of young urban professionals who lean left but want to keep their way of life. We're not going to see them vote for someone to the left of Sanders based on partisan lean alone.

If both candidates ran on their own ideologies, then I'd agree, but I think each would be encouraged by their party a bit to run on a more generic D or R platform.

[Hope For A New Era]

Stop trying to make R-MN happen. It's not going to happen.



Identity politics saves AOC in New Mexico and just barely falls short of saving her in Nevada. Massachusetts is much closer than normal, but still solidly D. Delaware is also unusually close.

NE-02 is D because after 2020 it is redrawn into a D sink.

[bagelman]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=42lc

The default result is a strong non-landslide for Baker. Climate change would be the prime factor to provoke an AOC win.