How do you win California as a Republican?

[Cyrusman]

No trolling answers please
I’m looking for a serious winning recipe for how a Republican canidate could win California in a federal race?

Even though it would very difficult what would be the winning recipe?
What would it take?
What counties would they need to win at what margins to offset LA county and the Bay Area?

What platforms would you have to adopt while still maintaining some core republican values?

[brucejoel99]

They don't, & this isn't a trolling answer. Generational replacement & favorable demographic changes (California is now more overwhelmingly non-white, heavily urbanized, & non-religious than ever before) likely ensure its leftward shift will remain in place for at least a generation or 2.

[Roll Roons]

For a Senate race, I think a top-two lockout fluke is really the only way.

Imagine this. Biden wins. Newsom only appoints a placeholder to Harris' seat and decides to let the race unfold on its own. Alex Padilla, Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, Ro Khanna, Eric Swalwell, Eric Garcetti and London Breed all run, but so do a couple unknown Republicans. With the Democratic field so split, Republicans manage to snag both of the top two spots in the primary.

Otherwise, I just don't see how it's currently possible. Maybe a Charlie Baker-type Republican would have a small chance against a really terrible Democrat (someone worse than Martha Coakley), but the state is just so inelastically partisan. I'm 23, and I think I'll see it in my lifetime, but coalitions and trends would have to change.

[brucejoel99]

For a Senate race, I think a top-two lockout fluke is really the only way.

Imagine this. Biden wins. Newsom only appoints a placeholder to Harris' seat and decides to let the race unfold on its own. Alex Padilla, Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, Ro Khanna, Eric Swalwell, Eric Garcetti and London Breed all run, but so do a couple unknown Republicans. With the Democratic field so split, Republicans manage to snag both of the top two spots in the primary.

Otherwise, I just don't see how it's currently possible. Maybe a Charlie Baker-type Republican would have a small chance against a really terrible Democrat (someone worse than Martha Coakley), but the state is just so inelastically partisan. I'm 23, and I think I'll see it in my lifetime, but coalitions and trends would have to change.

This is also a possibility, albeit - as alluded to - a pretty distinctly remote one. I think it'd probably take California Democrats becoming Illinois-level corrupt & being complacent in their actions boiling over to such an extent that a really good California Republican actually looks like a palatable option to enough voters, but we're a long ways off from that ever becoming the case.

[Ferguson97]

You be Arnold Schwarzenegger.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wait for climate change to really ravage the state. Eventually the only people left will be deniers.

[Chips]

You go to other states and win without California.

[Former President tack50]

Based on an even swing from 2018-Gov, here is how the CA victory map from a Republican looks like



So, if I had to sum it up, a Republican to win in CA needs to do all of the following:

1) Get yuge landslide margins in the Republican parts of California, breaking even 70% in many counties

2) Win San Diego and Sacramento

3) Win the Los Angeles suburban counties, and in fact getting 60% in the infamous "Romney-Clinton" ones.

4) Not get destroyed in Los Angeles (getting just below 40% of the vote)

5) Not get destroyed in the San Francisco bay area, winning Solano outright and getting like 40% of the vote overall or something like that

The question of course is whether a map like that is even possible. Or whether the Republican victory map would be like that or not; even swing gets very unrealistic when dealing with overturning such high margins. It is perfectly possible that instead, an R victory map requires the Republican to instead win more in the suburbs and less in rural areas or viceversa

[Former President tack50]

Here is an alternative "even swing" map, based off the Insurance Commissioner race instead (where the indy was a de facto Republican?)

[Bismarck]

Probably only happens with a democrat having a major scandal combined with a good GOP year and a strong GOP candidate. The only other possibility I could see would be if some state specific wedge issue emerges that pits some dem group (Hispanics maybe or Asians) strongly against the state democrat party

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For the time being, ensuring a lock-out of Democrats from the top-two primary sounds less remote than the rest, although it is still pretty remote.
Otherwise they but have to wait. Likely a long time.

[Canis]

Run two republicans where democrats have a huge crowded field
IF allen did better and newsom did worse their was a possibility of a Cox-Allen Runoff in 2018 which would have been awful lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Run two republicans where democrats have a huge crowded field
IF allen did better and newsom did worse their was a possibility of a Cox-Allen Runoff in 2018 which would have been awful lol

That is at the state, not the federal, level. CA is much more winnable at the state level for Republicans - just look at Poizner's performance in 2018.

[Roll Roons]

Run two republicans where democrats have a huge crowded field
IF allen did better and newsom did worse their was a possibility of a Cox-Allen Runoff in 2018 which would have been awful lol

That is at the state, not the federal, level. CA is much more winnable at the state level for Republicans - just look at Poizner's performance in 2018.

Even then, Poizner ran as an independent, not a Republican. And he still lost to a s***ty, corrupt Democrat. Maybe he could have won in a less hostile environment, but Republicans couldn't even win any statewide races in 2010 or 2014.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I agree that it has to be a crowded well known Democratic field. Outside of that, it would have to be a really flawed Democrat but I would also like to add that it has to be a celebrity. A beloved conservative celebrity and the only ones who really come to mind are Tim Allen and Denzel Washington.

[Senator-elect Spark]

You be Arnold Schwarzenegger.

[Stockdale for Veep]

My takeaway from this thread.

Someone needs to call up the Cali Dems to get Instant-Runoff-Voting enacted.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

As a presidential nominee, you betray your party and run to the left of Democratic nominee Joe Manchin.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As a presidential nominee, you betray your party and run to the left of Democratic nominee Joe Manchin.

You mean like this?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election

[Agonized-Statism]

At this point, it comes down to patching things up with Mexican-Americans and waiting for industry to leave the state completely, leaving it susceptible to right-wing populist appeals like the Rust Belt. It's hard to see the both happening in the current paradigm, nor is the Mexican-American population negligible enough not to show up and guarantee victory that way. GOP moderates couldn't win the state because they offer no solutions to Californians' problems, whereas a right-wing populist at least offers some kind of change in rhetoric.