Why has Biden collapsed in NC ?

[Tender Branson]

There are several polls now in a row showing him behind, after leading 2-8% a few months ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, the polls are within margin of error, +2 to 4 pts. The state has a heavy AA presence that pollsters underestimate female and minority support

[Non Swing Voter]

the race is predictably tightening.  NC always seemed like the longest shot out of the big 6 for Biden.  I'm curious to see if his large lead in Florida holds up.

[YE]

I’d need more data to say he’s collapsed but the last few polls in the state haven’t been great for him granted they aren’t necessarily the best pollsters. But if so, it’s because Dems still have room to fall with rural whites there.

[Tender Branson]

I think as the election gets closer, more shy former Trump voters are now more willing to declare to pollsters that they are going to vote for him again ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think as the election gets closer, more shy former Trump voters are now more willing to declare to pollsters that they are going to vote for him again ...

Pollsters are gonna underestimate mnority and female support, the state has been hurt by Covid 19 and AA are gonna turnout in droves for Harris. We still dont know the full bounce Harris have on female and minorities. That's why you are getting discrepancies in the liberal and conservative polls

Cooper and Cunningham are leading outside the margin of error

[Kleine Scheiße]

nc polling right now is either uniquely incorrect, uniquely correct, or reflective of biden for some reason performing less well/trump performing better in nc than in similar states

i'm inclined to believe it's the third option, because biden's support is likely squishier than trump's in a state like nc

[GeneralMacArthur]

The polls we've gotten in August:

Redfield + Wilton, unrated by 538 (Trump +2)
East Carolina University, complete unknown, 538 says its simple average error is 19.1 (=)
Emerson, 538 A- (Trump +2)
Harper Polling, relative unknown (Biden +1)
Rasmussen, 538 C+ (Trump +1)
Change Research, 538 C- (Trump +1)

You can chuck Rasmussen and Change Research in the bin, both are known trash pollsters.
Three of the others are unknown pollsters.
That leaves just Emerson.

I'll wait to declare Biden "collapsed" in NC until we get some more high quality datapoints.   All we've really got is one Emerson poll.  Marist, an A+ pollster, had this state at Biden +7 on July 27.  The last A+ pollster to touch NC before then was Siena/NYT on June 25 and they found Biden +9.

[iammucow]

I think getting a good assessment of Biden's support in NC is going to be difficult. NC leans Republican, but is also having elections with a popular Democratic governor incumbent and an unpopular Republican senator incumbent, so I would expect better turnout among Democrats who want to keep the governor in power and kick the senator out of the power. Biden will be riding on those coattails, so his success is more dependent on that than his own personal popularity.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This feels like a response to that random British pollster that had Trump up 2 points in today's poll.

Isn't this the time before the convention when the reputable pollsters take a bit of a reprieve while we get a string of sh*t pollsters?

I'm gonna wait a week after the RNC before making judgement, cause this feels a little premature ala Minnesota

[WD]

Isn't this the time before the convention when the reputable pollsters take a bit of a reprieve while we get a string of sh*t pollsters?

I'm gonna wait a week after the RNC before making judgement, cause this feels a little premature ala Minnesota

nah, MN and NC are both Safe R because muh polls are undersampling Republicans and muh rural voters are trending R (and will obviously outvote the urban and suburban areas even though their population is declining and it’s a D+9 environment)

[Hammy]

Isn't this the time before the convention when the reputable pollsters take a bit of a reprieve while we get a string of sh*t pollsters?

I'm gonna wait a week after the RNC before making judgement, cause this feels a little premature ala Minnesota

Atlas tends to spin every poll as somehow bad for Biden. Biden gains 4-5 points? "Biden's in trouble, he's under-performing." Biden loses a point when averaging a series of not so great pollsters? "Biden's in trouble, he's collapsing"

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Isn't this the time before the convention when the reputable pollsters take a bit of a reprieve while we get a string of sh*t pollsters?

I'm gonna wait a week after the RNC before making judgement, cause this feels a little premature ala Minnesota

nah, MN and NC are both Safe R because muh polls are undersampling Republicans and muh rural voters are trending R (and will obviously outvote the urban and suburban areas even though their population is declining and it’s a D+9 environment)

I gotta say, you're really testing the character limits on my signature

[WD]

Isn't this the time before the convention when the reputable pollsters take a bit of a reprieve while we get a string of sh*t pollsters?

I'm gonna wait a week after the RNC before making judgement, cause this feels a little premature ala Minnesota

nah, MN and NC are both Safe R because muh polls are undersampling Republicans and muh rural voters are trending R (and will obviously outvote the urban and suburban areas even though their population is declining and it’s a D+9 environment)

I gotta say, you're really testing the character limits on my signature

😉

[Fusternino]

Because NC has one of the best Democratic state parties. They are already as well organized as they will be so there's little room to improve. All of the cities are very suburban as well.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Southern whites are extremely stubborn. NC is also more rural then the national average.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, FL, NC, WI, MI and PA were all within the margin of error and Johnson was the difference between Trump and Hillary, that's why they call it the 334 firewall

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's really not enough data to suggest Biden has collapsed in NC as others have pointed out; most of the recent NC polls have been from not so great pollsters. I do agree though that I would expect him to be doing better there than polls suggest considering his NPV lead. What's interesting is that as Biden's lead nationally has grown, polls have suggested his standing in NC has stayed about the same, even gotten slightly worse. My best guess is that it has to do with rural counties in the western part of the state where there are still legacy Dems for Trump to pic off, and the depopulating black-belt counties, but I think some of it is bad polling, but again, this is purely speculation on my part.

[Podgy the Bear]

He has never "collapsed" in NC.  In the poll of polls, Biden has run no better than even or slightly behind in NC.   

As has been mentioned, places like Charlotte and the RTP area continue to grow, but these Democratic leaning areas are offset by a substantial rural presence in the state.  And the movement of retirees into the NC mountain areas (a lot from metro Atlanta) are substantially Republican as well.

[Hope For A New Era]

Isn't this the time before the convention when the reputable pollsters take a bit of a reprieve while we get a string of sh*t pollsters?

I'm gonna wait a week after the RNC before making judgement, cause this feels a little premature ala Minnesota

Atlas tends to spin every poll as somehow bad for Biden. Biden gains 4-5 points? "Biden's in trouble, he's under-performing." Biden loses a point when averaging a series of not so great pollsters? "Biden's in trouble, he's collapsing"

Well, yes, we keep remembering 2016.

I think the high Democratic turnout will not end when Trump is gone. This has influenced a generation of voters.

[Xing]

NC seems like a state that was always going to be close, and polling shows... it is close. Hardly seems like a collapse.

[wbrocks67]

Here we go again with only basing things off of a lot of meh pollsters... didn't we learn our lesson when Biden was "collapsing" nationally, only for high quality pollsters to show that the race was basically where it was before?

[Mr. Smith]

Same reason he's gonna "collapse" in Florida, the state just doesn't have enough out of the cities to cancel out the other votes. Also gotta really max out the black vote.

The only notable difference is the rural areas to fall replace Cubans.

Make no mistake, it's gonna be close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls and models can guess turnout, but they are like the weather man, but it's the voters whom decide elections, the Dems can actually get a filibuster proof majority,  not just 50 seats

[Landslide Lyndon]

The polls we've gotten in August:

Redfield + Wilton, unrated by 538 (Trump +2)
East Carolina University, complete unknown, 538 says its simple average error is 19.1 (=)
Emerson, 538 A- (Trump +2)
Harper Polling, relative unknown (Biden +1)
Rasmussen, 538 C+ (Trump +1)
Change Research, 538 C- (Trump +1)

In August we also had PPP (Biden +3), POS (Trump+1), Data for Progress (Biden +4), Zogby (Biden +4), YouGov (Biden +4) and that crazy HIT Strategies poll (Biden +10).

In the 538 state aggregate Biden's lead has gone from +2 exactly a month ago to +1.1 today.