Montenegrin parliamentary election - 30th August 2020

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There are 81 seats in Montenegrin Parliament, elected by proportional representation. The threshold is 3%, which doesn't apply to ethnic minority lists - the thresholds for minorities are 0,7% for lists of Bosniaks and Albanians and 0,35% for Croat lists.

Parties contesting the election

Pro-government lists

1. Social Democrats - Ivan Brajović - We decide consistently
2016: 3,26%, 2 MPs

8. Decisively for Montenegro! DPS (Democratic Party of Socialists) - Milo Đukanović (includes 1 candidate from minor Liberal Party of Montenegro)
2016: 41,41%, 36 MPs

Ethnic minority lists
In the current parliament all MPs from ethnic minority parties supported the government.

2. Bosniak Party - Correctly - Rafet Husović
2016: 3,16%, 2 MPs

3. HGI (Croatian Civic Initiative) - With all heart for Montenegro
2016: 0,47%, 1 MP who defected to newly-formed
5. Croatian Reform Party of Montenegro - HRS

7. Albanian Coalition "Unaimously" Democratic Party, Democratic Union of Albanians and Democratic Alliance in Montenegro
10. Albanian List - Genci Nimanbegu, Nik Gjeloshaj
2016 for Albanian parties:
Albanians Decisively Forca-DUA-AA 1,27%, 1 MP (DUA is on the list 7, Forca and AA are on the list 10)
Albanian Coalition "With one goal" DP-DSCG-AKP 0,89%, without MPs (DP and DSCG are on the list 7, AKP is on the list 10)
Democratic Alliance of Albanians 0,4%, without MPs (now part of the list 10)

Opposition lists

4. SDP (Social Democratic Party) - Strong Montenegro!
2016: 5,23%, 4 MPs

6. dr Dritan Abazović – In black and white – dr Srđan Pavićević – (Civic Movement URA, Party of Justice and Reconciliation, Groups of voters CIVIS and independent intelectuals) – Citizens!
2016 Coalition Key (Demos, SNP, URA): 11,05%, 9 MPs out of which 2 from URA
2016 Bosniak Democratic Community in Montenegro (now Party of Justice and Reconciliation): 0,3%, without MPs

9. For Future of Montenegro - Democratic Front (New Serb Democracy, Movement for Change, Democratic People's Party), Socialist People's Party of Montenegro, Real Montenegro, United Montenegro, Workers' Party, Party of United Pensioners and Disabled People of Montenegro, Yugoslav Communist Party of Montenegro, Serbian Radical Party, Party of Pensioners Disabled People and Social Justice of Montenegro
2016 Democratic Front: 20,32%, 18 MPs
2016 Coalition Key (Demos, SNP, URA): 11,05%, 9 MPs out of which 3 from SNP


11. Aleksa Bečić - Miodrag Lekić -"Peace is our nation" - Democrats - Democratic Montenegro, Demos, Party of Pensioners Disabled People and Restitution, Civic Movement New Left
2016 Democrats - Democratic Montenegro 10,01%, 8 MPs
2016 Coalition Key (Demos, SNP, URA): 11,05%, 9 MPs out of which 4 from Demos

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Election campaign logos (copyright belongs to parties and coalitions)

1. Social Democrats are a pro-government SDP splinter party, formed not long before SDP left the ruling coalition.


2. Bosniak Party


3. Croatian Civic Initiative


4. Social Democratic Party is one of the original Montenegrin nationalist parties (DPS has only adopted Montenegrin nationalism around 2000.), having advocated the independence of Montenegro since its formation. Formerly a longtime ally of DPS, they joined the opposition in 2016 after accusing DPS of corruption.


5. Croatian Reform Party is a splinter party of HGI.


6. Coalition "In Black and White" is led by Civic Movement "United Reform Action", a party founded by Dritan Abazović, a former member of the now defunct party Positive Montenegro, that's described as "social liberal" and "anti-corruption". The coalition also includes Party of Justice and Reconciliation, an ethnic Bosniak and Islamic minor party which is also active in Serbia led by former Mufti Muamer Zukorlić, and independents.


7. Albanian Coalition "Unaimously"


8. Democratic Party of Socialists is the formal successor of Communist Party in Montenegro and the ruling party of Montenegro since its formation. They were initially a pro-Milošević party politically similar to their Serbian sister party SPS, but after the late 90s split, they gradually became a Montenegrin nationalist party and adopted pro-Western rhetoric and foreign policy. The opposition accuses DPS of criminality, corruption, authoritarianism and divisive politics.

The logo is in colours of the Montenegrin flag (red and yellow).


9. For the Future of Montenegro is one of the two major opposition coalitions, the more "radical" and currently more popular of the two. They are effectively an expanded Democratic Front, including Democratic Front parties (right-wing populist coalition including Serbian nationalists), SNP (once a major opposition party in Montenegro, split from DPS in the late 90s) and minor parties.

The logo is in colours of the Serbian flag (red, blue and white).


10. Albanian List


11. Peace is our nation is the more "moderate" of the two major opposition coalitions, led by centrist Democratic Montenegro, founded by former SNP member Aleksa Bečić.

The logo is in colours of the Montenegrin flag (red and yellow).

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Very high turnout in Montenegro - 54,1% by 13h
https://mobile.twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300027370913628160

By 12h it was 45,3%, over 15% higher than in 2016.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CDT_CrnaGora/status/1300018645347848192

There are reports of election irregularities by these two NGOs monitoring the elections (CeMI and CDT) as well as by the opposition parties.

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The turnout gap has been reduced.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300118888798130178

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Nebojša Medojević, one of the leaders of Democratic Front and the "For the future of Montenegro" coalition, claims that his coalition has won in prisons and that the opposition has won there for the first time ever.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NebojsaMedojevi/status/1300126095598120963
(ZIKS - zavod za izvršenje krivičnih sankcija)

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Final turnout is 75,9% according to CDT (73,4% in 2016)
https://twitter.com/CDT_CrnaGora/status/1300142762835300355

According to the initial CEMI projection, three opposition lists together have a majority, and the difference between the first two lists (DPS and "For the future of Montenegro") is very small.
https://twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300151629287694337


DPS 34,4% (29 MPs)
For the Future of Montenegro (DF+) 33,3% (29 MPs)
Peace is Our Nation (DCG+) 12,4% (10 MPs)
In Black and White (URA+) 5,1% (4)
BS 4,5% (3)
SD 4,3% (3)
AL 1,5% (2)
AK 1,2% (1)
Without MPs:
SDP 3% (on the very threshold, if they're over 3% they would have 2-3 MPs)
HGI 0,2%
HRS 0,1%
Invalid ballots: 1,2%

41 MPs needed for majority
DF+DCG+URA 43
DPS+SD+minorities 38

Other combinations could be possible (DPS+SD+minorities+bought MPs from the opposition, DF+DCG+minorities etc.)

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Updated CEMI projection: three oposition lists still have a majority (but narrow one, of 41 MPs), SDP enters the parliament.
https://twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300155764049358856

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Opposition won! 42-39 in seats.

It is 42, according to the latest CeMI projection (89% of the sample)
https://mobile.twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300178815373766657

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The three opposition leaders have met and outlined some of the principles of a new government without DPS.

1. Fulfilment of international obligations
2. Acceleration of the EU accession process
3. Expert government
4. Amendment of "discriminatory laws" including the controversial "Religious Freedom" law

They have also invited ethnic minority parties to support them.

https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/465225/sastali-se-krivokapic-becic-i-abazovic-ovo-su-cetiri-principa-buduce-vlasti

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According to RTCG, Bosniak Party rejects the offer of opposition parties because they are "anti-NATO, pro-Serbia and pro-Russia".
http://www.rtcg.me/vijesti/politika/291233/dobili-ponudu-opozicije-bosnjaci-ne-odustaju-od-eu-i-nato.html

Two ethnic Albanian lists left.

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Goodbye Milo

I hope they derecognize Kosovo, that would be enough for me.

There probably won't be derecognition of Kosovo, not even all of the potential new ruling coalition is for it and it would alienate the Albanian community. And Montenegro will neither leave NATO nor end EU integrations.

I expect that the only changes in foreign policy and identity issues will be modification of the controversial "Religious Freedom law", relaxation of dual citizenship restrictions and maybe loosening of sanctions towards Russia.

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DPS met with SD, Liberal Party and ethnic minority parties (38 MPs), where they announced they will act together "as an alliance for European, civic and antifascist Montenegro".
This almost certainly means that they won't support a government that's being negotiated between the three opposition lists (41 MPs).
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/465867/dps-odrzan-sastanak-sa-koalicionim-partnerima-dogovoreno-zajednicko-djelovanje-u-okviru-saveza-za-evropsku-cg

SDP (2 MPs) has earlier rejected working with a potential new government because of DF support, but they didn't meet with DPS today.

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SDP (2 MPs) seems to signal that they also won't support a DPS-led government. In their opinion, DPS and allies have 38 seats "and not one more", contrary to the statements of DPS that with "traditional allies" (including SDP, in opposition from 2015) they have 40 MPs.
https://fosmedia.me/mobile/infos/politika/sdp-nasi-mandati-iskljucivo-ce-biti-za-dobro-i-progres-cg-aktuelna-vlast-osvojila-38

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Politicians of Albanian minority parties about the government formation process.
Fatmir Gjeka and Mehmed Zenka, who led a coalition of Albanian minority parties that has one MP, seem to dismiss the option of working with the new majority (three coalitions of formerly opposition parties that together have 41 MPs).
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/466221/zenka-svjesni-smo-u-kom-smjeru-bi-isla-crna-gora-ako-se-formira-vecina-koja-se-najavljuje

On the other hand, Nik Gjeloshaj, whose coalition has won another one MP, says that, although he is sceptical, he won't dismiss the possibility of working with the new majority, but he didn't get an official invitation.
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/466185/djeljosaj-o-albancima-odlucuju-samo-albanci-nije-bilo-sluzbenog-poziva-za-ulazak-u-vlast

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Bosniak Party (3 MPs) has flip-flopped and says that now it wants to support a government proposed by the new majority.
Based on public statements, 45 MPs (out of 81) are willing to support a government without DPS. Now it's on President Milo Đukanović to not obstruct the formation of new government...
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/466707/bosnjacka-stranka-demokrate-da-budu-okosnica-nove-vlasti-podrzali-bi-ekspertsku-vladu

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Formal agreement between the three coalitions of new majority. In three languages - Serbian/Montenegrin, English and German.
The content of agreement reflects what's already known from public statements of the leaders of the three coalitions. Due to the choice of the topics covered and the languages in which the agreement is published, it's probably meant for international, rather than domestic audiences.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DemokrateCG/status/1303643120823869440

There will probably be a more detailed agreement covering more topics (including the distribution of governmental and parliamentary positions) later, when it's all negotiated.

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Milica Pejanović Đurišić, the current Montenegrin ambassador to the UN and a prominent member of DPS, intends to leave DPS and found a new party, according to media reports. She might be joined by "some of the DPS MPs who are already considering leaving the party".
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/468739/razlaz-u-dps-u-pejanovic-djurisic-osniva-stranku

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Reportedly, Movement for Change (PzP) leaves the "For the Future of Montenegro" (ZBCG) caucus in order to differentiate itself as a "pro-Western" party within the new majority, from its "pro-Serbian" coalition allies.
Could this be the end of Democratic Front (DF), which has contested the election as the main part of ZBCG and "served its purpose" of removing DPS from power?
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/471383/medojevic-se-odvaja-nato-i-zapad-prioritet

Tensions emerge between URA and DF, complicating government formation.

- Reportedly, URA leader Dritan Abazović proposes the ZBCG leader Zdravko Krivokapić as PM, but... some of the parties within ZBCG no longer have confidence in Krivokapić?!
According to this article, it's expected that URA holds portfolios including ministries of Defense and Police, and Agency of National Security.
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/471455/abazovic-predlozio-krivokapica-za-premijera-df-odbio

- Milan Knežević, one of the DF leaders, states that nobody has problems with Krivokapić, but that they have problems with "excessive demands of URA", which were "negotiated with Krivokapić", including "Internal Affairs, Police, National Security, Defense, Military Intelligence, Foreign Affairs and Justice" and "exclusion of the most important Serb politicians of DF from government".
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/471495/knezevic-trazimo-da-nam-krivokapic-objasni-zahtjeve-abazovica

The first session of Parliament will be held tomorrow, where the Speaker of Parliament should be elected - this position will be probably given to Democratic Montenegro (Democrats), led by Aleksa Bečić.

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41 MPs of the new majority sign a letter to President Milo Đukanović (DPS) asking him to propose Zdravko Krivokapić (independent within ZBCG) as the PM candidate.



MPs of the new majority have also expressed public support for nomination of Aleksa Bečić (DCG) for Speaker of Parliament during the parliamentary debate.

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Aleksa Bečić will be also supported by Bosniak Party and by Nik Gjeloshaj, one of the two MPs from Albanian parties, bringing the total up to 45 MPs, out of 81. He won't be supported by DPS, LP, SD and SDP, who have 35 MPs. Waiting for the other Albanian party MP, who might also support Bečić.

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Bečić elected as new Speaker. Out of 71 votes, 45 are for, 1 is against and 25 are invalid.

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Constituent parties of Albanian List (1 MP) have approved participation in government formation talks.
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/474159/albanska-lista-dato-zeleno-svjetlo-za-pregovore-o-ucescu-u-novoj-vladi

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Bosniak Party (3 MPs) votes against government participation after meeting with PM candidate Krivokapić.
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/478733/bosnjacka-stranka-glasala-protiv-ucesca-u-novoj-vlasti

Albanian List (1 MP) has given Krivokapić a document with their demands.
https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/478357/zahtjevi-albanske-liste-luka-u-ulcinju-kanal-na-tvcg-i-izmjene-vise-zakona

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Yesterday, MPs in the Parliament of Montenegro have chosen the new government of Montenegro led by Zdravko Krivokapić (independent within ZBCG), with 41 votes in favour (from the three coalitions of the new majority), 28 against and 1 "neutral" (Genci Nimanbegu from the Albanian List, which has participated in the government coalition negotiations, but they didn't enter the government). 11 MPs from thr current opposition didn't participate in the vote. The Vice PM is Dritan Abazović (URA), and the 12 ministers are non-partisan, after negotiations about a partisan government have failed.

This is the first change of government in Montengro after 23 (the 1997 DPS split), 30 (transformation of the Communist Party into DPS) or 75 (the Communist takeover of Montenegro) years, depending on the definition.

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As for Socialist People's Party (SNP), they aren't particularly left-wing or europhilic. SNP was until recently allied with DF, although they're more pragmatic than DF. Why SNP chose to participate in the minority govt - I don't really know, although they were dissatisfied with the Krivokapić govt for not giving them the public sector positions they wanted. In the minority government, they did get that - 6 ministries (around a third of the govt), opportunities to employ their members in public sector... Interestingly, even though SNP participates in the minority govt, they didn't vote for in the VONC against Krivokapić, unlike URA, although as URA voted for, SNP wasn't needed.

As for URA, in the beginning they seemed to be supportive of the Zdravko Krivokapić govt. But the conflict between the two wings of the govt (where every member was an independent apart from Abazović), the pro-Krivokapić wing and the pro-Abazović wing, became public around the time of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) enthronement ceremony in Cetinje, against which the Montenegrin Orthodox Church (CPC) supporters organised protests.
The security situation in Cetinje at the time was deemed "high risk". PM Krivokapić and his wing were close to the SPC and he reportedly wanted the protests suppressed, while the pro-Abazović wing of the govt wanted to move the enthronement ceremony out of Cetinje.
Krivokapić has also reportedly offered ethnic minority parties to join his govt to kick Abazović out, as alleged by URA and the ethnic minority parties.
There probably were disagreements over other things too.
I think this is the main reason why URA toppled the Krivokapić govt.