Montenegrin parliamentary election - 30th August 2020

[bigic]

There are 81 seats in Montenegrin Parliament, elected by proportional representation. The threshold is 3%, which doesn't apply to ethnic minority lists - the thresholds for minorities are 0,7% for lists of Bosniaks and Albanians and 0,35% for Croat lists.

Parties contesting the election

Pro-government lists

1. Social Democrats - Ivan Brajović - We decide consistently
2016: 3,26%, 2 MPs

8. Decisively for Montenegro! DPS (Democratic Party of Socialists) - Milo Đukanović (includes 1 candidate from minor Liberal Party of Montenegro)
2016: 41,41%, 36 MPs

Ethnic minority lists
In the current parliament all MPs from ethnic minority parties supported the government.

2. Bosniak Party - Correctly - Rafet Husović
2016: 3,16%, 2 MPs

3. HGI (Croatian Civic Initiative) - With all heart for Montenegro
2016: 0,47%, 1 MP who defected to newly-formed
5. Croatian Reform Party of Montenegro - HRS

7. Albanian Coalition "Unaimously" Democratic Party, Democratic Union of Albanians and Democratic Alliance in Montenegro
10. Albanian List - Genci Nimanbegu, Nik Gjeloshaj
2016 for Albanian parties:
Albanians Decisively Forca-DUA-AA 1,27%, 1 MP (DUA is on the list 7, Forca and AA are on the list 10)
Albanian Coalition "With one goal" DP-DSCG-AKP 0,89%, without MPs (DP and DSCG are on the list 7, AKP is on the list 10)
Democratic Alliance of Albanians 0,4%, without MPs (now part of the list 10)

Opposition lists

4. SDP (Social Democratic Party) - Strong Montenegro!
2016: 5,23%, 4 MPs

6. dr Dritan Abazović – In black and white – dr Srđan Pavićević – (Civic Movement URA, Party of Justice and Reconciliation, Groups of voters CIVIS and independent intelectuals) – Citizens!
2016 Coalition Key (Demos, SNP, URA): 11,05%, 9 MPs out of which 2 from URA
2016 Bosniak Democratic Community in Montenegro (now Party of Justice and Reconciliation): 0,3%, without MPs

9. For Future of Montenegro - Democratic Front (New Serb Democracy, Movement for Change, Democratic People's Party), Socialist People's Party of Montenegro, Real Montenegro, United Montenegro, Workers' Party, Party of United Pensioners and Disabled People of Montenegro, Yugoslav Communist Party of Montenegro, Serbian Radical Party, Party of Pensioners Disabled People and Social Justice of Montenegro
2016 Democratic Front: 20,32%, 18 MPs
2016 Coalition Key (Demos, SNP, URA): 11,05%, 9 MPs out of which 3 from SNP


11. Aleksa Bečić - Miodrag Lekić -"Peace is our nation" - Democrats - Democratic Montenegro, Demos, Party of Pensioners Disabled People and Restitution, Civic Movement New Left
2016 Democrats - Democratic Montenegro 10,01%, 8 MPs
2016 Coalition Key (Demos, SNP, URA): 11,05%, 9 MPs out of which 4 from Demos

[bigic]

Election campaign logos (copyright belongs to parties and coalitions)

1. Social Democrats are a pro-government SDP splinter party, formed not long before SDP left the ruling coalition.


2. Bosniak Party


3. Croatian Civic Initiative


4. Social Democratic Party is one of the original Montenegrin nationalist parties (DPS has only adopted Montenegrin nationalism around 2000.), having advocated the independence of Montenegro since its formation. Formerly a longtime ally of DPS, they joined the opposition in 2016 after accusing DPS of corruption.


5. Croatian Reform Party is a splinter party of HGI.


6. Coalition "In Black and White" is led by Civic Movement "United Reform Action", a party founded by Dritan Abazović, a former member of the now defunct party Positive Montenegro, that's described as "social liberal" and "anti-corruption". The coalition also includes Party of Justice and Reconciliation, an ethnic Bosniak and Islamic minor party which is also active in Serbia led by former Mufti Muamer Zukorlić, and independents.


7. Albanian Coalition "Unaimously"


8. Democratic Party of Socialists is the formal successor of Communist Party in Montenegro and the ruling party of Montenegro since its formation. They were initially a pro-Milošević party politically similar to their Serbian sister party SPS, but after the late 90s split, they gradually became a Montenegrin nationalist party and adopted pro-Western rhetoric and foreign policy. The opposition accuses DPS of criminality, corruption, authoritarianism and divisive politics.

The logo is in colours of the Montenegrin flag (red and yellow).


9. For the Future of Montenegro is one of the two major opposition coalitions, the more "radical" and currently more popular of the two. They are effectively an expanded Democratic Front, including Democratic Front parties (right-wing populist coalition including Serbian nationalists), SNP (once a major opposition party in Montenegro, split from DPS in the late 90s) and minor parties.

The logo is in colours of the Serbian flag (red, blue and white).


10. Albanian List


11. Peace is our nation is the more "moderate" of the two major opposition coalitions, led by centrist Democratic Montenegro, founded by former SNP member Aleksa Bečić.

The logo is in colours of the Montenegrin flag (red and yellow).

[CumbrianLefty]

Djukanovic set to win again, yes?

[Estrella]

This might be a very basic/stupid question but how exactly has Đukanović held on to power for so long?

[mgop]

Djukanovic set to win again, yes?

this time is hard to say, country is in nato, maybe he's time is finally up

[mgop]

This might be a very basic/stupid question but how exactly has Đukanović held on to power for so long?

country is small and poor, so people are cheap, he buy them

[mgop]

Election campaign logos (copyright belongs to parties and coalitions)

1. Social Democrats are a pro-government SDP splinter party, formed not long before SDP left the ruling coalition.


2. Bosniak Party


3. Croatian Civic Initiative


4. Social Democratic Party is one of the original Montenegrin nationalist parties (DPS has only adopted Montenegrin nationalism around 2000.), having advocated the independence of Montenegro since its formation. Formerly a longtime ally of DPS, they joined the opposition in 2016 after accusing DPS of corruption.


5. Croatian Reform Party is a splinter party of HGI.


6. Coalition "In Black and White" is led by Civic Movement "United Reform Action", a party founded by Dritan Abazović, a former member of the now defunct party Positive Montenegro, that's described as "social liberal" and "anti-corruption". The coalition also includes Party of Justice and Reconciliation, an ethnic Bosniak and Islamic minor party which is also active in Serbia led by former Mufti Muamer Zukorlić, and independents.


7. Albanian Coalition "Unaimously"


8. Democratic Party of Socialists is the formal successor of Communist Party in Montenegro and the ruling party of Montenegro since its formation. They were initially a pro-Milošević party politically similar to their Serbian sister party SPS, but after the late 90s split, they gradually became a Montenegrin nationalist party and adopted pro-Western rhetoric and foreign policy. The opposition accuses DPS of criminality, corruption, authoritarianism and divisive politics.

The logo is in colours of the Montenegrin flag (red and yellow).


9. For the Future of Montenegro is one of the two major opposition coalitions, the more "radical" and currently more popular of the two. They are effectively an expanded Democratic Front, including Democratic Front parties (right-wing populist coalition including Serbian nationalists), SNP (once a major opposition party in Montenegro, split from DPS in the late 90s) and minor parties.

The logo is in colours of the Serbian flag (red, blue and white).


10. Albanian List


11. Peace is our nation is the more "moderate" of the two major opposition coalitions, led by centrist Democratic Montenegro, founded by former SNP member Aleksa Bečić.

The logo is in colours of the Montenegrin flag (red and yellow).

what's up with 2 albanian and 2 croatian lists? are any of them opposition?

[CumbrianLefty]

Djukanovic set to win again, yes?

this time is hard to say, country is in nato, maybe he's time is finally up

Very much in the "believe it when I see it" category tbh.

Still, not long to go

[bigic]

Very high turnout in Montenegro - 54,1% by 13h
https://mobile.twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300027370913628160

By 12h it was 45,3%, over 15% higher than in 2016.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CDT_CrnaGora/status/1300018645347848192

There are reports of election irregularities by these two NGOs monitoring the elections (CeMI and CDT) as well as by the opposition parties.

[pilskonzept]

Only the 10 am figures have been published by municipality so far, but turnout seems to be much higher in opposition-leaning (read: Serb nationalist) areas.

[bilaps]

It's time for him to fall. Finaly.

Also, one correction to the first post. SDP at no 4 is no opposition list. There are 3 true opposition lists and SDP is not one of them.

[pilskonzept]

It's time for him to fall. Finaly.

Djukanovic's DPS doesn't need to win a majority, perhaps not even a plurality, to stay in power. They only need a splintered opposition.

Also, one correction to the first post. SDP at no 4 is no opposition list. There are 3 true opposition lists and SDP is not one of them.

True in the sense that they would support Djukanovic before they support DF et al. This has been his strategy, after all - divide the opposition into unionists and separatists. Going against the church may have been a step to far for many fencesitters though.

[bigic]

The turnout gap has been reduced.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300118888798130178

[bigic]

Nebojša Medojević, one of the leaders of Democratic Front and the "For the future of Montenegro" coalition, claims that his coalition has won in prisons and that the opposition has won there for the first time ever.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NebojsaMedojevi/status/1300126095598120963
(ZIKS - zavod za izvršenje krivičnih sankcija)

[bigic]

Final turnout is 75,9% according to CDT (73,4% in 2016)
https://twitter.com/CDT_CrnaGora/status/1300142762835300355

According to the initial CEMI projection, three opposition lists together have a majority, and the difference between the first two lists (DPS and "For the future of Montenegro") is very small.
https://twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300151629287694337


DPS 34,4% (29 MPs)
For the Future of Montenegro (DF+) 33,3% (29 MPs)
Peace is Our Nation (DCG+) 12,4% (10 MPs)
In Black and White (URA+) 5,1% (4)
BS 4,5% (3)
SD 4,3% (3)
AL 1,5% (2)
AK 1,2% (1)
Without MPs:
SDP 3% (on the very threshold, if they're over 3% they would have 2-3 MPs)
HGI 0,2%
HRS 0,1%
Invalid ballots: 1,2%

41 MPs needed for majority
DF+DCG+URA 43
DPS+SD+minorities 38

Other combinations could be possible (DPS+SD+minorities+bought MPs from the opposition, DF+DCG+minorities etc.)

[bigic]

Updated CEMI projection: three oposition lists still have a majority (but narrow one, of 41 MPs), SDP enters the parliament.
https://twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300155764049358856

[mgop]

Opposition won! 42-39 in seats.

[bigic]

Opposition won! 42-39 in seats.

It is 42, according to the latest CeMI projection (89% of the sample)
https://mobile.twitter.com/CeMI_ME/status/1300178815373766657

[Former President tack50]

Wow, I was definitely not expecting the opposition to win. Congrats to them!

[CumbrianLefty]

So, we are *finally* witnessing the end of the Djukanovic era?

[bigic]

The three opposition leaders have met and outlined some of the principles of a new government without DPS.

1. Fulfilment of international obligations
2. Acceleration of the EU accession process
3. Expert government
4. Amendment of "discriminatory laws" including the controversial "Religious Freedom" law

They have also invited ethnic minority parties to support them.

https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/465225/sastali-se-krivokapic-becic-i-abazovic-ovo-su-cetiri-principa-buduce-vlasti

[bigic]

According to RTCG, Bosniak Party rejects the offer of opposition parties because they are "anti-NATO, pro-Serbia and pro-Russia".
http://www.rtcg.me/vijesti/politika/291233/dobili-ponudu-opozicije-bosnjaci-ne-odustaju-od-eu-i-nato.html

Two ethnic Albanian lists left.

[bilaps]

Goodbye Milo

I hope they derecognize Kosovo, that would be enough for me.

[bigic]

Goodbye Milo

I hope they derecognize Kosovo, that would be enough for me.

There probably won't be derecognition of Kosovo, not even all of the potential new ruling coalition is for it and it would alienate the Albanian community. And Montenegro will neither leave NATO nor end EU integrations.

I expect that the only changes in foreign policy and identity issues will be modification of the controversial "Religious Freedom law", relaxation of dual citizenship restrictions and maybe loosening of sanctions towards Russia.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, if an opposition coalition is formed they certainly won't *all* be hardline pro-Serbia elements.