TX Gov: Perry at 40%, leads nearest opponent by 21%

[Sam Spade]

http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Texas%20Governor%20April.htm

Topline numbers:
Rick Perry (R) 40%
Chris Bell (D) 17%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn 19%
Kinky Friedman 15%

Yawn.  Poll is sort of stale. (two weeks old)

My analysis:

I said that Bell would gain post-winning the nomination.  I was right. 

As in comparison to last poll, most of Strayhorn's support has migrated to Bell and Friedman, which tells me that 10% of the voters is probably still fairly undecided, as opposed to the other 10% who totally are, giving us around 20% undecided in total.

We'll continue to have to see if either of the other three candidates can get an advantage over the other two and pick up these voters in total, because Perry's 40% isn't really going anywhere barring a catastrophe in his campaign and no one is really close to him in numbers right now considering the division three ways.

Average over the last three polls (January/February/April) is:
Perry - 40%
Strayhorn - 24%
Bell - 15%
Friedman - 12%

[bgwah]

It would make the statewide map cool if each of them won a county. And the nationwide map would be more interesting if Perry won in the >30% interval.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'd be really tempted to vote Strayhorn in this race.

[WalterMitty]

ive endorsed kinky.

[minionofmidas]

It would make the statewide map cool if each of them won a county. And the nationwide map would be more interesting if Perry won in the >30% interval.

A second place map (or better yet, an "ignoring Perry's votes" map) will be highly interesting if this race doesn't go anywhere from here - which seems likely. There's really no reason to assume any one of the three will be seized on as the Stop Perry candidate, although it's not impossible at this point.

[Sam Spade]

It would make the statewide map cool if each of them won a county. And the nationwide map would be more interesting if Perry won in the >30% interval.

A second place map (or better yet, an "ignoring Perry's votes" map) will be highly interesting if this race doesn't go anywhere from here - which seems likely. There's really no reason to assume any one of the three will be seized on as the Stop Perry candidate, although it's not impossible at this point.

Fact is, and I agree with you on the above, the most likely candidate to seize on Stop Perry momentum is Strayhorn, without a doubt.  She has the money unlike Bell and Friedman (Democrats have been contributing to her campaign strongly, not Bell's) and she will have the public pulpit by her position as Comptroller.

The latest drop in this poll to me does not really mean much to her long-term potential in my mind. 

Bell is simply a bad candidate.  Kinky is, for all his entertainment, too far left on social issues.  Along with the "lack of money" issue, they are much less likely to be the Stop Perry candidate.

The key thing to watch out for in the next few months is the school funding debate presently going on in state legislature.  If they can get the bill passed and deliver the cuts in property taxes that have been talked about (Texas currently has projected an $8.2 billion surplus in the budget), I wouldn't be surprised if all incumbents receive a gain in support.

If nothing is passed, there could be potential blowback, which might open up the race for the others.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Will Kinky Friedman win any counties?

[Sam Spade]

Will Kinky Friedman win any counties?

Texas has 256 counties, more than any other state in the nation.

Perry is actually fairly strong out in west Texas, where most of the under 10,000 people counties are, but I wouldn't be surprised that if Kinky pulls over 10%, he manages to win some county somewhere.

[jimrtex]

The key thing to watch out for in the next few months is the school funding debate presently going on in state legislature.  If they can get the bill passed and deliver the cuts in property taxes that have been talked about (Texas currently has projected an $8.2 billion surplus in the budget), I wouldn't be surprised if all incumbents receive a gain in support.

It would be interesting if John Sharp were to endorse Perry.  Sharp was appointed to chair the commission that recommended the current tax proposal.  As you know Sharp was Comptroller before Strayhorn (then Rylander) was elected in 1998.   Perry defeated Sharp in the Lt. Governor's race in 1998, even though Sharp ran 18% ahead of Garry Mauro who was Bush's opponent in the Governor's race.  Perry then became Governor in 2001, when Bush resigned to become President.

Sharp has been doing the presentations for the tax reform commission, and he keeps making gentle jabs at Strayhorn.  For example, part of the plan is that if the Comptroller's office has said with $2 million more for auditors, they could get $50 million more in collections.  The Comptroller has to certify that the budget is in balance, and so has to confirm that the $50 million figure is accurate.  After the Comptroller had run the numbers and confirmed that the projections were on target, Sharp said something like, "after you get past the hand waving and political posturing, our (commission) figures are right where we said they would be."

What is Bell going campaign on?  The legislature should have kept the property taxes as well as add a business tax or proposed a state income tax?  The only way that you can make a case for it having an unfair impact on poor people is if you include the increase in the cigarette tax.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Especially if the schools don't open in August.

[Keystone Phil]

All I want in this race is to see Kinky end up with more votes than Strayhorn.

[jimrtex]

Strayhorn as turned in her petitions, claiming 223,000 signatures.
Friedman is claiming around 170,000.

45,000 or so is required.  But those signing can't have participated in the Democrat or Republican primaries, the Libertarian caucuses, or have signed the Green Party petition, or have signed the petition of another candidate for the office.  They also have to be registered voters.

Strayhorn had sued the Secretary of State in federal court, trying to get him to order that petitions be checked by sampling, and to accept petitions on the fly.  But the judge refused to order.  The SoS says it will take about 6 weeks to count the signatures.

[minionofmidas]

Strayhorn as turned in her petitions, claiming 223,000 signatures.
Friedman is claiming around 170,000.

45,000 or so is required.  But those signing can't have participated in the Democrat or Republican primaries, the Libertarian caucuses, or have signed the Green Party petition, or have signed the petition of another candidate for the office.  They also have to be registered voters.

Strayhorn had sued the Secretary of State in federal court, trying to get him to order that petitions be checked by sampling, and to accept petitions on the fly.  But the judge refused to order.  The SoS says it will take about 6 weeks to count the signatures.

So if someone signed both petitions, it counts for neither?

[Sam Spade]

Strayhorn as turned in her petitions, claiming 223,000 signatures.
Friedman is claiming around 170,000.

45,000 or so is required.  But those signing can't have participated in the Democrat or Republican primaries, the Libertarian caucuses, or have signed the Green Party petition, or have signed the petition of another candidate for the office.  They also have to be registered voters.

Strayhorn had sued the Secretary of State in federal court, trying to get him to order that petitions be checked by sampling, and to accept petitions on the fly.  But the judge refused to order.  The SoS says it will take about 6 weeks to count the signatures.

So if someone signed both petitions, it counts for neither?

That's correct, I'm 99.9% sure.  Though I need to read up Texas election statute, just to be clear.

[jimrtex]

Strayhorn as turned in her petitions, claiming 223,000 signatures.
Friedman is claiming around 170,000.

45,000 or so is required.  But those signing can't have participated in the Democrat or Republican primaries, the Libertarian caucuses, or have signed the Green Party petition, or have signed the petition of another candidate for the office.  They also have to be registered voters.

Strayhorn had sued the Secretary of State in federal court, trying to get him to order that petitions be checked by sampling, and to accept petitions on the fly.  But the judge refused to order.  The SoS says it will take about 6 weeks to count the signatures.

So if someone signed both petitions, it counts for neither?

That's correct, I'm 99.9% sure.  Though I need to read up Texas election statute, just to be clear.

I was wrong.  It doesn't appear that there is any restriction on signing a independent petition unless one votes in a primary. 

A voter becomes affiliated with a party by participating in a primary or convention, and can't run for office that year as an independent or a candidate of another party, and affiliated voters can't participate in activities of another party.

I had thought it worked both ways, and signing an independent petition was the equivalent of joining a special-purpose political party (eg Kinky Party or the CKMRSP)

[jimrtex]

So if someone signed both petitions, it counts for neither?

That's correct, I'm 99.9% sure.  Though I need to read up Texas election statute, just to be clear.

The TX SOS has added a FAQ on the subject.  There is a provision in the election law that deals with petiition signing in general that addresses the question of signing multiple petitions (first signature counts).  This would apparently apply to both independent candidate petitions and petitions to get on a party primary ballot.

FAQ Independent Candidate Process

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, "first signature counts" makes sense I guess ... after all, someone's primary vote isn't discarded for their signing a petition afterwards either.

[jimrtex]

Yeah, "first signature counts" makes sense I guess ... after all, someone's primary vote isn't discarded for their signing a petition afterwards either.

Probably not.  But there is actually the possiblity of making a voter reveal who they voted for in a contested election.