KS-GOV 2022: Colyer drops out, endorses Schmidt

[Hope For A New Era]

KS-GOV 2022 is Likely D regardless of who is President. Kelly will almost certainly be fine. I would not be surprised to see her win by a larger margin than 2018, even in a Biden midterm.

[Hope For A New Era]

On the other hand, the Senate race could be a lot more competitive, especially if Kelly decides to abandon a reelection campaign and run for Moran's Senate seat (which is what I would do if Moran ran for Governor and I was in her shoes.)

lol, I wish. Kansas is never going to elect two Dem senators. The only state that will ever elect two opposite-party senators is Montana. Maybe New Jersey in an exceptional case.

[Hope For A New Era]

On the other hand, the Senate race could be a lot more competitive, especially if Kelly decides to abandon a reelection campaign and run for Moran's Senate seat (which is what I would do if Moran ran for Governor and I was in her shoes.)

lol, I wish. Kansas is never going to elect two Dem senators. The only state that will ever elect two opposite-party senators is Montana. Maybe New Jersey in an exceptional case.

You don’t think West Virginia or Maine could be on that list?

Maine is a possibility, but West Virginia will probably never elect a Democrat who isn't named Joe Manchin.

[Hope For A New Era]

Good. Kelly should be safe.

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Well, looks like this election will be a third consecutive referendum on Brownback then.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, looks like this election will be a third consecutive referendum on Brownback then.

I just have to say that while we disagree on everything, I find it amazing how you’re able to spin literally everything as a positive for your party. Can’t say that I harbor that kind of optimism, but this seems to be a fundamental difference between Democrats and Republicans in general.

And who says a third referendum on Brownback is a good thing for Democrats? 2014 was a referendum on him too, and he was reelected. Kelly has a strong record. It looked like she could have campaigned on that. Now she's forced to go back into anti-Brownbackism, as if a decade of that wasn't enough, and though that's a powerful attack in Kansas, its power diminishes with every passing year.

Can’t say that I harbor that kind of optimism, but this seems to be a fundamental difference between Democrats and Republicans in general.

Regardless of whatever fundamental differences may or may not exist, you seem to be an exceptionally pessimistic Republican. I'm not sure why, considering that Republicans made gains in 2020 somehow. Any sane country would have had another 1932, but your party has quite possibly the most loyal, or brainwashed, party base in the world. Your party is basically invincible and inevitable. No matter how bad it gets, the Republican Party somehow remains America's "default party," the party that the nation always inevitably forgives, no matter how destructive it becomes.

[Hope For A New Era]

The 3-party system lives on!


Doesn't change the rating, still Lean D.

[Hope For A New Era]

Still Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

Laura Kelly is currently the most vulnerable incumbent in the country in any statewide race this cycle, and that isn't likely to change any time soon.

Tony Evers has entered the chat.

Evers doesn't need nearly as much crossover support to win. Of course, both are likely to lose.

I've been saying this for a long time, so here it is again:

Laura Kelly has crossover support, and she has had it from the beginning. Her approval has never been underwater her entire time as governor.

Tony Evers (and Steve Sisolak, for that matter) won by pure partisanship in a wave year.

See signature.

[Hope For A New Era]

Still Lean D

Echelon poll unskew with standard "80% of undecideds are Republicans" plus accounting for third-party candidates:
gov: Kelly 50 Schmidt 46 Third Party 4
sen: Moran 62 Holland 36 Third Party 2

[Hope For A New Era]

KS-AG:

Good ad from Mann (D). I think he could beat Kobach just based on Kobach’s unpopularity and Man’s good background.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannKS/status/1575123676869033984?s=20&t=oY1B7axu_u2_IHUcVGRiMw

Reagente claims to have seen internal polls with Mann doing better even than Kelly. Grain of salt, of course, because this is both secondhand and internal. But he definitely can win.

[Hope For A New Era]

KS-AG:

Good ad from Mann (D). I think he could beat Kobach just based on Kobach’s unpopularity and Man’s good background.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannKS/status/1575123676869033984?s=20&t=oY1B7axu_u2_IHUcVGRiMw

Reagente claims to have seen internal polls with Mann doing better even than Kelly. Grain of salt, of course, because this is both secondhand and internal. But he definitely can win.

My initial hunch was that Mann wins before Kelly. I think Kelly won in 2018 largely on the back of Kobach unpopularity.

She did, though she's also a strong candidate in her own right. It wasn't a "literally anyone can beat Kobach" situation. She actually outperformed her polls, which is pretty impressive for a D in an R-leaning state in the post-2016 era.

I consider her favored in this election, though by a smaller margin than 2018 for sure. It wouldn't surprise me to see Mann outperform her because of the Kobach effect.

The real wildcard is the Treasurer race. No one has any idea what's going on there.

[Hope For A New Era]

What went wrong for Derek Schmidt?

Nothing.

A run for office against a popular incumbent governor is not likely to succeed.

[Hope For A New Era]

One thing that's really interesting is that Schmidt lost while Kobach won. This proves Kelly has pretty far-reaching crossover appeal.

Also, another underdiscussed thing is a few of the D legislative upsets, especially in Johnson County. The GOP is going to regret their state legislative gerrymander so bad when it locks them out of a supermajority.

Exactly as I was saying, for two and a half years before the election Atlas went into full partisanship-over-everything mode after 2020, I think.

Although I have to admit I'm surprised Kobach won. I'm not sure how to explain that. Maybe it was just the general low-profile-ness of the race? Despite him running, there strangely wasn't that much media attention on it. Maybe some crossover Kelly voters voted for her and then habitually/reflexively R on the rest of the ballot without really looking closely at the names.

Even weirder, I have heard that there was at least one R internal poll that had Schmidt winning but Kobach losing.

Also, Mann outperformed Kelly in Johnson somehow. Not sure who the Schmidt-Mann voters are, but I guess they could be half-realigneds like the Fontes-Kelly-Lake voters of Arizona or something. Maybe they were 2018 Orman voters?