KS-GOV 2022: Colyer drops out, endorses Schmidt

[tmthforu94]

Starting the megathread a little early but some news today that could be relevant for 2022:

https://twitter.com/bradc25/status/1296823637392207872?s=20

Link: https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/moran-launching-new-state-pac/

While it doesn't prove anything, setting up a state PAC (as opposed to his federal PAC) suggests he could be angling towards challenging Kelly in '22 instead of seeking reelection. Senator Moran considered running in '10 but opted for the Senate seat Brownback was vacating. He was also a rumored candidate in '18 but declined.

Governor Kelly's approval ratings are good and most are happy with how she has responded to COVID-19, so I think she's in good shape overall considering the dynamics of the state and the fact it'll likely be a Biden midterm. But Moran is arguably the best person to take her down. I'd rate the race a toss-up as of today, whereas she'd be favored against anyone else.

[Roll Roons]

Idk. Why he would he give up a safe Senate seat to make a risky run for governor?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Idk. Why he would he give up a safe Senate seat to make a risky run for governor?

He might not see a future in the Senate's Republican leaderhsip and might not feel happy just being a party line vote.

[YE]

Maybe Moran is just nervous about the 2022 Senate race given how the other seat is currently in play?

[MT Treasurer]

Maybe Moran is just nervous about the 2022 Senate race given how the other seat is currently in play?

He’s nervous about his Senate seat/reelection prospects in a Biden midterm... and then decides to run against the popular Democratic governor?

[YE]

Maybe Moran is just nervous about the 2022 Senate race given how the other seat is currently in play?

He’s nervous about his Senate seat in a Biden midterm... and then decides to run against the popular Democratic governor?

No, that'd explain him forming a Pac to run for re-election rather than governor.

[S019]

Maybe Moran is just nervous about the 2022 Senate race given how the other seat is currently in play?

He’s nervous about his Senate seat in a Biden midterm... and then decides to run against the popular Democratic governor?

Yeah, I don't really see that, the D nominee in 2022 will likely be much weaker than Bollier. The KS Dems don't have an unlimited amount of Bolliers, Sebellius's or Kellys and that's why the party can only win the occasional statewide race. Davids would not give up her safe house seat, so who are they even supposed to run, I guess Orman could try again, but even Kobach (and there's almost no chance he gets the nomination, even if this seat opens) would win this seat in a Biden midterm, given how weak the KSDEM bench is. I think it's more that he's bored in the Senate, and especially if he does end up in the minority following 2020, he might think it might be better to try a run at Governor like his predecessor Sam Brownback did.

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, I think the Senate seat will be pretty safe for Moran if he runs for reelection, especially in a Biden midterm. Any Republican would be favored. He has always been pretty well-liked. It'd be interesting to see who went for that open seat, though.

Top Republicans I could see running for Governor if Moran stays in Senate:
Susan Wagle
Dereck Schmidt (AG)
Scott Schwab (SoS)
Wink Hartman
Bob Hamilton

^^^This list will basically apply to whichever race Moran doesn't run in. Moran could get a decent challenge in a gubernatorial primary, but my guess is anyone who is wanting higher office will go for the open Senate seat.

[Pollster]

Very interesting, I suspect he'd have quite a good chance if he runs.

Not sure why a non-embattled two term incumbent Senator who is about to become his state's senior Senator, has outperformed multiple of his party's Presidential nominees both times he ran, sits on the Senate's most powerful committee, has generally good job approval numbers, and could probably make a play for a leadership post if he wanted it would take on a significantly tougher race against a popular incumbent Governor, but I guess stranger things have happened.

[Hope For A New Era]

KS-GOV 2022 is Likely D regardless of who is President. Kelly will almost certainly be fine. I would not be surprised to see her win by a larger margin than 2018, even in a Biden midterm.

[tmthforu94]

Very interesting, I suspect he'd have quite a good chance if he runs.

Not sure why a non-embattled two term incumbent Senator who is about to become his state's senior Senator, has outperformed multiple of his party's Presidential nominees both times he ran, sits on the Senate's most powerful committee, has generally good job approval numbers, and could probably make a play for a leadership post if he wanted it would take on a significantly tougher race against a popular incumbent Governor, but I guess stranger things have happened.

I'm sure he'll be testing the waters and gauging internal polls for the coming months before making a decision. I have heard from sources though that his top interest has always been to be Governor, it's just about finding the right moment. He could probably still go for it in 2026 and win easily, but he'll be 72 at that point and may not want to go for it.

He should have ran in '18, but I think Colyer was pretty set on running and not stepping aside for him. I still think Moran probably could have won that primary, and if he had, he would be Governor now.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Moran runs for Governor I'd put this race at Lean R (Tossup if Trump happens to win reelection) to start. Kansas is just too Republican, and it's a lot harder to tie Moran to Brownback than a legislative Republican, for example.

On the other hand, the Senate race could be a lot more competitive, especially if Kelly decides to abandon a reelection campaign and run for Moran's Senate seat (which is what I would do if Moran ran for Governor and I was in her shoes.)

[Suburbia]

KS-GOV 2022 is Likely D regardless of who is President. Kelly will almost certainly be fine. I would not be surprised to see her win by a larger margin than 2018, even in a Biden midterm.

Yea, the most vulnerable Democratic governor in 2022 is Evers in Wisconsin, then Walz and Sisolak in Nevada. Kelly is vulnerable, but she will hold on, I think.

She'd be a good DNC chair down the road

As for Moran, he remains in the Senate

[NewYorkExpress]

KS-GOV 2022 is Likely D regardless of who is President. Kelly will almost certainly be fine. I would not be surprised to see her win by a larger margin than 2018, even in a Biden midterm.

Yea, the most vulnerable Democratic governor in 2022 is Evers in Wisconsin, then Walz and Sisolak in Nevada. Kelly is vulnerable, but she will hold on, I think.

She'd be a good DNC chair down the road

As for Moran, he remains in the Senate

Nevada won't be competitive, even in a Biden midterm. Who are Republicans going to run, Mark Amodei?

It's Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Kansas as the most vulnerable Governor's mansions (and not necessarily in that order) for Democrats.

[brucejoel99]

I've always thought Moran has been rather jejune as a Senator (save that time he ran the Olympic Committee sexual abuse investigation). That being said, I'm sure he'd rake in votes in a gubernatorial race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly will beat Moran

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Bollier beats Marshall, KS-SEN 2022 is almost certainly Safe R. The governor's race is Tossup or Tilt R if Moran runs for it. That's how I see it.

[Hope For A New Era]

On the other hand, the Senate race could be a lot more competitive, especially if Kelly decides to abandon a reelection campaign and run for Moran's Senate seat (which is what I would do if Moran ran for Governor and I was in her shoes.)

lol, I wish. Kansas is never going to elect two Dem senators. The only state that will ever elect two opposite-party senators is Montana. Maybe New Jersey in an exceptional case.

[MT Treasurer]

Yea, the most vulnerable Democratic governor in 2022 is Evers in Wisconsin, then Walz and Sisolak in Nevada. Kelly is vulnerable, but she will hold on, I think.

Agreed on Evers, but I think Whitmer is more vulnerable than either Walz or Sisolak (less sure about Walz than Sisolak, though).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

On the other hand, the Senate race could be a lot more competitive, especially if Kelly decides to abandon a reelection campaign and run for Moran's Senate seat (which is what I would do if Moran ran for Governor and I was in her shoes.)

lol, I wish. Kansas is never going to elect two Dem senators. The only state that will ever elect two opposite-party senators is Montana. Maybe New Jersey in an exceptional case.

You don’t think West Virginia or Maine could be on that list?

[Hope For A New Era]

On the other hand, the Senate race could be a lot more competitive, especially if Kelly decides to abandon a reelection campaign and run for Moran's Senate seat (which is what I would do if Moran ran for Governor and I was in her shoes.)

lol, I wish. Kansas is never going to elect two Dem senators. The only state that will ever elect two opposite-party senators is Montana. Maybe New Jersey in an exceptional case.

You don’t think West Virginia or Maine could be on that list?

Maine is a possibility, but West Virginia will probably never elect a Democrat who isn't named Joe Manchin.

[Coldstream]

Because leaving the Senate to become Governor went so well for Brownback.

[Alcibiades]

On the other hand, the Senate race could be a lot more competitive, especially if Kelly decides to abandon a reelection campaign and run for Moran's Senate seat (which is what I would do if Moran ran for Governor and I was in her shoes.)

lol, I wish. Kansas is never going to elect two Dem senators. The only state that will ever elect two opposite-party senators is Montana. Maybe New Jersey in an exceptional case.

I don’t know. What combination of senators a state has is down to luck to a large degree, such as which cycle the races fall in. I think several states could elect two opposite party senators if the circumstances are right.

[Galeel]

I don't think it's so weird to do this. Yeah, it might be more politically risky, but that's not the only thing people care about. Maybe he'd just rather be a governor than a senator. I sure know I would.

[BuckeyeNut]

He's probably trying to shore up support for Republicans in Kansas' state legislature. Kansas is effectively a tripartite system, and if the moderate Republicans side with Democrats come redistricting, it could lead to a real mess for Moran down the line.