KS-GOV 2022: Colyer drops out, endorses Schmidt

[tmthforu94]

Starting the megathread a little early but some news today that could be relevant for 2022:

https://twitter.com/bradc25/status/1296823637392207872?s=20

Link: https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/moran-launching-new-state-pac/

While it doesn't prove anything, setting up a state PAC (as opposed to his federal PAC) suggests he could be angling towards challenging Kelly in '22 instead of seeking reelection. Senator Moran considered running in '10 but opted for the Senate seat Brownback was vacating. He was also a rumored candidate in '18 but declined.

Governor Kelly's approval ratings are good and most are happy with how she has responded to COVID-19, so I think she's in good shape overall considering the dynamics of the state and the fact it'll likely be a Biden midterm. But Moran is arguably the best person to take her down. I'd rate the race a toss-up as of today, whereas she'd be favored against anyone else.

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, I think the Senate seat will be pretty safe for Moran if he runs for reelection, especially in a Biden midterm. Any Republican would be favored. He has always been pretty well-liked. It'd be interesting to see who went for that open seat, though.

Top Republicans I could see running for Governor if Moran stays in Senate:
Susan Wagle
Dereck Schmidt (AG)
Scott Schwab (SoS)
Wink Hartman
Bob Hamilton

^^^This list will basically apply to whichever race Moran doesn't run in. Moran could get a decent challenge in a gubernatorial primary, but my guess is anyone who is wanting higher office will go for the open Senate seat.

[tmthforu94]

Very interesting, I suspect he'd have quite a good chance if he runs.

Not sure why a non-embattled two term incumbent Senator who is about to become his state's senior Senator, has outperformed multiple of his party's Presidential nominees both times he ran, sits on the Senate's most powerful committee, has generally good job approval numbers, and could probably make a play for a leadership post if he wanted it would take on a significantly tougher race against a popular incumbent Governor, but I guess stranger things have happened.

I'm sure he'll be testing the waters and gauging internal polls for the coming months before making a decision. I have heard from sources though that his top interest has always been to be Governor, it's just about finding the right moment. He could probably still go for it in 2026 and win easily, but he'll be 72 at that point and may not want to go for it.

He should have ran in '18, but I think Colyer was pretty set on running and not stepping aside for him. I still think Moran probably could have won that primary, and if he had, he would be Governor now.

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, I get the point BuckeyeNut was making and he is absolutely right - he's going to support candidates in 2020 in state-level offices that will back and support him in 2022, regardless if he runs for Senate or Governor. But it seems to indicate moreso a Governor run, in my view.

[tmthforu94]

Not going to happen, Moran's Comms Director confirmed today that he is running for reelection:

https://twitter.com/tomwbrandt/status/1325859851684229120?s=20

[tmthforu94]

https://townhall.com/columnists/gabriellahoffman/2021/03/01/ks-ag-derek-schmidt-looking-seriously-at-2022-gubernatorial-run-n2585488?110&fbclid=IwAR2WW9WnPnlotPDPd2pGIlezexgT_uhYxEQiBmN32pf2N82Az5A_Lpec64o

Attorney General Derek Schmidt has been pretty mum about his political future—until now. He told me he’s “seriously” considering running against Governor Kelly in 2022.

“Well, we're looking seriously at it,” said Schmidt in a phone interview. “And as I've visited with people, I've been really very honored that so many Kansans have encouraged me to run. I'll have more to say about that once I've made a decision.”

He'd probably be one of the best candidates - can satisfy both wings of the GOP.

[tmthforu94]

Very sad news. He endorsed Schmidt on his way out. We’re almost a year out from the primary but it seems like Schmidt might have an easy path to the nomination here.

Toss-up -> Lean R, IMHO.