KS-GOV 2022: Colyer drops out, endorses Schmidt

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Bollier beats Marshall, KS-SEN 2022 is almost certainly Safe R. The governor's race is Tossup or Tilt R if Moran runs for it. That's how I see it.

[SnowLabrador]

Just because Kansas republican politicians are supporting her doesn't mean Kansas republican voters will do the same en masse.

This. A number of Republicans endorsed Barbara Bollier in 2020, and look how that turned out.

[SnowLabrador]

Still Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

Laura Kelly is currently the most vulnerable incumbent in the country in any statewide race this cycle, and that isn't likely to change any time soon.

Tony Evers has entered the chat.

Evers doesn't need nearly as much crossover support to win. Of course, both are likely to lose.

[SnowLabrador]

Winning chance for Laura Kelly has soared to 69% in FiveThirtyEight's deluxe model after that Echelon +12 poll (they still rate Echelon as B/C pollster though). I think that's a little too bullish. Classic and lite models even have her at 78% and 85%. That's way off as well.

Nate Bronze doesn't know s**t.