KS-GOV 2022: Colyer drops out, endorses Schmidt

[SnowLabrador]

Still Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

Laura Kelly is currently the most vulnerable incumbent in the country in any statewide race this cycle, and that isn't likely to change any time soon.

Tony Evers has entered the chat.

Evers doesn't need nearly as much crossover support to win. Of course, both are likely to lose.

[NewYorkExpress]

Still Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

Laura Kelly is currently the most vulnerable incumbent in the country in any statewide race this cycle, and that isn't likely to change any time soon.

Tony Evers has entered the chat.

Evers wins unless it's an R wave, and even then, I wouldn't put Wisconsin at anything worse than Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

Laura Kelly is currently the most vulnerable incumbent in the country in any statewide race this cycle, and that isn't likely to change any time soon.

Tony Evers has entered the chat.

Evers doesn't need nearly as much crossover support to win. Of course, both are likely to lose.

Evers is at 51 Percent Approval

[Pollster]

Far-right independent candidate is officially on the ballot.

https://twitter.com/KatieJ_Bernard/status/1562904163717349379?s=20&t=hxE1rgL...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Far-right independent candidate is officially on the ballot.

https://twitter.com/KatieJ_Bernard/status/1562904163717349379?s=20&t=hxE1rgL...

Good news for Kelly?

[Real Texan Politics]

Not a bad ad, this could actually help her a bit.
https://twitter.com/LauraKellyKS/status/1562448364783816706?s=20&t=Ryc3QwSQS...

[Gass3268]

Far-right independent candidate is officially on the ballot.

https://twitter.com/KatieJ_Bernard/status/1562904163717349379?s=20&t=hxE1rgL...

Good news for Kelly?

Yes and the DGA should pump money into his campaign.

[Hope For A New Era]

Still Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

Laura Kelly is currently the most vulnerable incumbent in the country in any statewide race this cycle, and that isn't likely to change any time soon.

Tony Evers has entered the chat.

Evers doesn't need nearly as much crossover support to win. Of course, both are likely to lose.

I've been saying this for a long time, so here it is again:

Laura Kelly has crossover support, and she has had it from the beginning. Her approval has never been underwater her entire time as governor.

Tony Evers (and Steve Sisolak, for that matter) won by pure partisanship in a wave year.

See signature.

[President Johnson]

Regardless of Kelly winning, the Attorney General race is still Safe KKKobach, right?

[Duke of York]

Regardless of Kelly winning, the Attorney General race is still Safe KKKobach, right?

it likely is and Rogers is probably going to lose reelection as treasurer.

[Spectator]

Regardless of Kelly winning, the Attorney General race is still Safe KKKobach, right?

I’m not convinced it is. Remember that Kobach lost the governors race in 2018 more than Kelly  actually won it. Whose to say that the well-funded Dem in the AG race can’t win out of disdain for Kobach? It’s not like voters will forget why they hated him. Kobach was only leading the Democrat Mann by 3 in his own internal, doing worse than Schmidt was in the same poll (by only 1 but still). It’s not hard at all for me to see the Democrat winning if he gets sufficient funding to get his message out. He has a compelling bio as a former cop turned lawyer after being hit by a drunk driver while on duty.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kobach has been a costly embarrassment to the KS GOP for nearly 20 years now.

[Roll Roons]

Is it weird that there's been pretty much no public polling of this race?

I refuse to call Kelly an outright underdog until I see multiple non-internal polls showing Schmidt ahead. The fact is that she has a high approval rating. She may be a Democrat in a red state, but popular incumbent governors very rarely lose reelection.

[President Johnson]

Winning chance for Laura Kelly has soared to 69% in FiveThirtyEight's deluxe model after that Echelon +12 poll (they still rate Echelon as B/C pollster though). I think that's a little too bullish. Classic and lite models even have her at 78% and 85%. That's way off as well.

[SnowLabrador]

Winning chance for Laura Kelly has soared to 69% in FiveThirtyEight's deluxe model after that Echelon +12 poll (they still rate Echelon as B/C pollster though). I think that's a little too bullish. Classic and lite models even have her at 78% and 85%. That's way off as well.

Nate Bronze doesn't know s**t.

[Hope For A New Era]

Still Lean D

Echelon poll unskew with standard "80% of undecideds are Republicans" plus accounting for third-party candidates:
gov: Kelly 50 Schmidt 46 Third Party 4
sen: Moran 62 Holland 36 Third Party 2

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another factor to consider is that Kansas is a relatively smaller state population wise meaning local politics can have more of an issue. Most of the most extreme recent governor overperformances in recent history have either been from states that are physically small and/or small population-wise. Yes partisanship plays a role here, but it's not as big of a factor as it may be in a place like PA, MI, or AZ.

[wbrocks67]

Still Lean D

Echelon poll unskew with standard "80% of undecideds are Republicans" plus accounting for third-party candidates:
gov: Kelly 50 Schmidt 46 Third Party 4
sen: Moran 62 Holland 36 Third Party 2

That actually feels like a very plausible GOV result.

Also saw DeSantis campaigning for Schmidt on Sunday. I don't really see how DeSantis's schtick plays well in KS though.

[Pollster]

Echelon poll unskew with standard "80% of undecideds are Republicans"

I'd go so far as to say 90% in a state like Kansas - no comment on broader "unskewing" though.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dems put serious money behind sending some right-leaning votes to Pyle here. The state's GOP dynamics make that a better bet than it might be elsewhere.

[Spectator]

KS-AG:

Good ad from Mann (D). I think he could beat Kobach just based on Kobach’s unpopularity and Man’s good background.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannKS/status/1575123676869033984?s=20&t=oY1B7axu_u2_IHUcVGRiMw

[Hope For A New Era]

KS-AG:

Good ad from Mann (D). I think he could beat Kobach just based on Kobach’s unpopularity and Man’s good background.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannKS/status/1575123676869033984?s=20&t=oY1B7axu_u2_IHUcVGRiMw

Reagente claims to have seen internal polls with Mann doing better even than Kelly. Grain of salt, of course, because this is both secondhand and internal. But he definitely can win.

[Spectator]

KS-AG:

Good ad from Mann (D). I think he could beat Kobach just based on Kobach’s unpopularity and Man’s good background.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannKS/status/1575123676869033984?s=20&t=oY1B7axu_u2_IHUcVGRiMw

Reagente claims to have seen internal polls with Mann doing better even than Kelly. Grain of salt, of course, because this is both secondhand and internal. But he definitely can win.

My initial hunch was that Mann wins before Kelly. I think Kelly won in 2018 largely on the back of Kobach unpopularity.

[Hope For A New Era]

KS-AG:

Good ad from Mann (D). I think he could beat Kobach just based on Kobach’s unpopularity and Man’s good background.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannKS/status/1575123676869033984?s=20&t=oY1B7axu_u2_IHUcVGRiMw

Reagente claims to have seen internal polls with Mann doing better even than Kelly. Grain of salt, of course, because this is both secondhand and internal. But he definitely can win.

My initial hunch was that Mann wins before Kelly. I think Kelly won in 2018 largely on the back of Kobach unpopularity.

She did, though she's also a strong candidate in her own right. It wasn't a "literally anyone can beat Kobach" situation. She actually outperformed her polls, which is pretty impressive for a D in an R-leaning state in the post-2016 era.

I consider her favored in this election, though by a smaller margin than 2018 for sure. It wouldn't surprise me to see Mann outperform her because of the Kobach effect.

The real wildcard is the Treasurer race. No one has any idea what's going on there.

[Spectator]

KS-AG:

Good ad from Mann (D). I think he could beat Kobach just based on Kobach’s unpopularity and Man’s good background.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannKS/status/1575123676869033984?s=20&t=oY1B7axu_u2_IHUcVGRiMw

Reagente claims to have seen internal polls with Mann doing better even than Kelly. Grain of salt, of course, because this is both secondhand and internal. But he definitely can win.

My initial hunch was that Mann wins before Kelly. I think Kelly won in 2018 largely on the back of Kobach unpopularity.

She did, though she's also a strong candidate in her own right. It wasn't a "literally anyone can beat Kobach" situation.

For sure, and I think she’s shown that this election. Otherwise Kansas would be Safe R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KatieJ_Bernard/status/1576968532905971713