if the PRC invaded Taiwan, and Taiwan's friends did nothing but send weapons/gear/money...

[dead0man]

Bloomberg.com worrying about it

recent article fretting about Taiwan's supply chain/maintenance issues

and in the other direction

list of ways the PRC is a paper tiger

how the PRC's one child policy has created a generation of spoiled sh**ts and why that's bad news for the PLA



If the PRC invades, they have to accomplish a list of things, each one harder than the last.  They have to get and maintain air superiority at least over the straight and preferably over Taiwan itself.  That's not going to be easy with sh**tty knockoffs of western and Russian planes, piloted by under trained, no real world experience officers.  Granted the Taiwanese Air Force has fewer (but more modern/capable) fighters and are also under trained and inexperienced, but they have an easier job (flying over your own territory is easier than flying over the enemies).  Then they've got to put a bunch of dudes and gear on boats and make the trek across the straight (110miles of shallow, but open ocean) into a military whose one and only task for the past 70 years is defending itself from the very thing the PRC will be trying to do.  Taiwan has decent subs, Taiwan has ground-to-ship missiles, Taiwan has a (token) Navy.  That's going to be a very hard (but not impossible) task.

[dead0man]

dead0 you never gave your own thoughts?

I (usually) don't like to give my opinion on my polls until other people have had an opportunity to give theirs.  Don't want to influence votes for or against because of my position and/or I don't want to poison the well.


I don't think the PRC could, even if Japan,S.Korea, US, the Aussies, etc stayed out.  It's just too much to ask for a 100% inexperienced military.  Having all the bodies in the world doesn't matter if you can't get them across the straight and resupply them once there.  They can't prevent Taiwan from getting resupplied and new, top of the line gear....what are they going to do, sink US cargo ships?  The PRC's economy would go to sh**t the moment they start.  Just too many hurdles to ...umm...hurdle.

[dead0man]

This would surely start a World War.

Doesn't that depend on there being a worldwide system of alliances that the PRC can call upon?

to be fair, the entire world against China would still be a "world war"


unless, maybe, nah...couldn't be.....UNLESS! he thinks world powers like Cuba, Venezuela and Syria would join in and bring in their powerful armies and totally tilt the game in favor of the Red Chinese.

[dead0man]

This would surely start a World War.

Doesn't that depend on there being a worldwide system of alliances that the PRC can call upon?

to be fair, the entire world against China would still be a "world war"


unless, maybe, nah...couldn't be.....UNLESS! he thinks world powers like Cuba, Venezuela and Syria would join in and bring in their powerful armies and totally tilt the game in favor of the Red Chinese.

In a situation where India gets involved--which doesn't totally make sense for a variety of reasons--I can see Pakistan joining the fray, but Russia's interests do not appear served at all by coming to China's aid when the bulk of its population, defense needs, and strategic aims are on the other side of the continent; and, so far as I am aware, they are partners, not allies.

Russia is tired of them stealing their tech too, I don't see them joining the PRC in a fight against the West (or even just a subsection of the West).  At most they'll sell them some non-top of the line gear.  The Russians recently canceled a sale of their new S-400 anti-air system to the PRC and have stopped sending them jet engines (the PRC have had a hard time successfully building their own, even with stolen designs from Russia and the West/USA), which is why  their carrier based jets (J-15s) have garbage range and extremely minimal weapons loadout.


Pakistan may in fact join with the PRC in such a war, Iran (and it's proxies) is possible too.  Depending on how things go between now and the theoretical war, Turkey might even want to play on the wrong team, but that's much less likely.  But even if the PRC has:Pakistan, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Cuba and a dozen, even lesser, countries, they still wouldn't stand a chance against the West even if everything breaks their way.

[dead0man]

dead0 you never gave your own thoughts?

I (usually) don't like to give my opinion on my polls until other people have had an opportunity to give theirs.  Don't want to influence votes for or against because of my position and/or I don't want to poison the well.


I don't think the PRC could, even if Japan,S.Korea, US, the Aussies, etc stayed out.  It's just too much to ask for a 100% inexperienced military.  Having all the bodies in the world doesn't matter if you can't get them across the straight and resupply them once there.  They can't prevent Taiwan from getting resupplied and new, top of the line gear....what are they going to do, sink US cargo ships?  The PRC's economy would go to sh**t the moment they start.  Just too many hurdles to ...umm...hurdle.

What US cargo ships? The goddamned Marshall Islands have a merchant marine eight times the size of ours. All of our merchant marine is too busy sucking tit from overpriced government contracts and protected Jones Act routes to ever consider making a trip to Asia, even in peacetime.

aye, that's true.  Let me rephrase....

what are they going to do, sink Liberian cargo ships full of small arms, ammo and a dozen Apaches?