if the PRC invaded Taiwan, and Taiwan's friends did nothing but send weapons/gear/money...

[dead0man]

Bloomberg.com worrying about it

recent article fretting about Taiwan's supply chain/maintenance issues

and in the other direction

list of ways the PRC is a paper tiger

how the PRC's one child policy has created a generation of spoiled sh**ts and why that's bad news for the PLA



If the PRC invades, they have to accomplish a list of things, each one harder than the last.  They have to get and maintain air superiority at least over the straight and preferably over Taiwan itself.  That's not going to be easy with sh**tty knockoffs of western and Russian planes, piloted by under trained, no real world experience officers.  Granted the Taiwanese Air Force has fewer (but more modern/capable) fighters and are also under trained and inexperienced, but they have an easier job (flying over your own territory is easier than flying over the enemies).  Then they've got to put a bunch of dudes and gear on boats and make the trek across the straight (110miles of shallow, but open ocean) into a military whose one and only task for the past 70 years is defending itself from the very thing the PRC will be trying to do.  Taiwan has decent subs, Taiwan has ground-to-ship missiles, Taiwan has a (token) Navy.  That's going to be a very hard (but not impossible) task.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Very interesting articles, dead0man. I'm far from being qualified enough to have these arguments interact with each other, however. I note that one of the "anti-China" articles is from 2014 and the other is very short and does not go very in-depth. The latter article, on China's youth, has me thinking about purchasing a standing desk.

[gerritcole]

What do you define as victory conditions for the PRC? If it’s just some level of control of the island- I’m sure the PRC can bleed Taiwan dry. They can accept horrendous losses of men and machine because of the sheer mismatch of resources and the Reunification narrative they can spin at home

[urutzizu]

I agree, the morale aspect is very important. On the mainland the entire population, and all sectors of the military and civil society, would stand behind any attempt at forceful reunification, and the Central Government can take huge economic and military losses before that starts to vain. Everyone supports reunification.

On Taiwan you can divide :
(1) About 60% of the Population that, for a lack of a better term, is "anti-China" on either identity or political grounds, in most case a synthesis, pan-green if you wish though it also includes some people who generally vote pan-blue (for various reasons). These people would in theory strong reason to resist any Invasion resolutely. However in practice this is doubtful, because even in this group one can expect defeatism from the get-go as reflected in the overwhelming feeling that Taiwan could not defend itself in case of an Invasion. It is also reflected in the trouble with enlistment the ROC Armed Forces has with the pan-green youth. From a Chinese nationalist perspective, this can be viewed as highly ironic, because as Taiwanese nationalism constructed itself on the appropriation of western values and Individualism, it actually simultaneously eroded any traditional nationalistic/Chinese ethos needed for the populace, particularly the youth, to defend said "nation", such as discipline or communitarianism. 
(2) there is a major part of the population, perhaps about 35%, that agrees with Reunification in principle, that would still be opposed to an Invasion, but with even less vigor than (1). Would these people be prepared to make major sacrifices, including life, in defending a concept of a nation they do not identify with, on political grounds? 
(3) lastly there is a minor part of the population, about 5%, that supports Reunification in all circumstances. These people can be expected to tacitly support the Invasion at best, or actively act as a fifth column at worst. 

And the ROC armed forces sways disproportionally toward (2) and (3) compared to the rest of the population. The trouble Taiwan has is somewhat unique. Usually, in almost every nation, even the most politically polarized societies, in times of war there is a very strong degree of unity among all classes of the population, as there is absolutely no reason of commitment why one would side with the enemy. But in Taiwan you have a large section of the population, and an even larger section of the Military that actually view the "enemy" on the other side as their country, and see in refusing to fight or desertion, not Treason or dereliction of duty, but actually the most patriotic thing one can do. 

However, the fact remains that at this stage of US-China relations, the US would likely intervene militarily in such a situation, which makes it extremely unlikely. Even if the PRC could successfully complete the Invasion in said case, which is not clear with the balance of power yet, the PRC will not attack, until the US has declined significantly and is in some massive internal crisis. The Virus this year may have been a opportunity, but the CCP went for Hong Kong instead, a much easier step in the path to full reunification. Taiwan will likely wait a decade or two at least, and that doesn't matter to the CCP as the status quo benefits them internally. The main danger is that the nationalism on the mainland internally escalates to a degree where the CCP cannot keep a lid on it, and is forced into hasty moves by popular sentiments, but that is not likely at this stage.

[gerritcole]

dead0 you never gave your own thoughts?

[dead0man]

dead0 you never gave your own thoughts?

I (usually) don't like to give my opinion on my polls until other people have had an opportunity to give theirs.  Don't want to influence votes for or against because of my position and/or I don't want to poison the well.


I don't think the PRC could, even if Japan,S.Korea, US, the Aussies, etc stayed out.  It's just too much to ask for a 100% inexperienced military.  Having all the bodies in the world doesn't matter if you can't get them across the straight and resupply them once there.  They can't prevent Taiwan from getting resupplied and new, top of the line gear....what are they going to do, sink US cargo ships?  The PRC's economy would go to sh**t the moment they start.  Just too many hurdles to ...umm...hurdle.

[Ferguson97]

This would surely start a World War.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This would surely start a World War.

Doesn't that depend on there being a worldwide system of alliances that the PRC can call upon?

[dead0man]

This would surely start a World War.

Doesn't that depend on there being a worldwide system of alliances that the PRC can call upon?

to be fair, the entire world against China would still be a "world war"


unless, maybe, nah...couldn't be.....UNLESS! he thinks world powers like Cuba, Venezuela and Syria would join in and bring in their powerful armies and totally tilt the game in favor of the Red Chinese.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This would surely start a World War.

Doesn't that depend on there being a worldwide system of alliances that the PRC can call upon?

to be fair, the entire world against China would still be a "world war"


unless, maybe, nah...couldn't be.....UNLESS! he thinks world powers like Cuba, Venezuela and Syria would join in and bring in their powerful armies and totally tilt the game in favor of the Red Chinese.

In a situation where India gets involved--which doesn't totally make sense for a variety of reasons--I can see Pakistan joining the fray, but Russia's interests do not appear served at all by coming to China's aid when the bulk of its population, defense needs, and strategic aims are on the other side of the continent; and, so far as I am aware, they are partners, not allies.

[dead0man]

This would surely start a World War.

Doesn't that depend on there being a worldwide system of alliances that the PRC can call upon?

to be fair, the entire world against China would still be a "world war"


unless, maybe, nah...couldn't be.....UNLESS! he thinks world powers like Cuba, Venezuela and Syria would join in and bring in their powerful armies and totally tilt the game in favor of the Red Chinese.

In a situation where India gets involved--which doesn't totally make sense for a variety of reasons--I can see Pakistan joining the fray, but Russia's interests do not appear served at all by coming to China's aid when the bulk of its population, defense needs, and strategic aims are on the other side of the continent; and, so far as I am aware, they are partners, not allies.

Russia is tired of them stealing their tech too, I don't see them joining the PRC in a fight against the West (or even just a subsection of the West).  At most they'll sell them some non-top of the line gear.  The Russians recently canceled a sale of their new S-400 anti-air system to the PRC and have stopped sending them jet engines (the PRC have had a hard time successfully building their own, even with stolen designs from Russia and the West/USA), which is why  their carrier based jets (J-15s) have garbage range and extremely minimal weapons loadout.


Pakistan may in fact join with the PRC in such a war, Iran (and it's proxies) is possible too.  Depending on how things go between now and the theoretical war, Turkey might even want to play on the wrong team, but that's much less likely.  But even if the PRC has:Pakistan, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Cuba and a dozen, even lesser, countries, they still wouldn't stand a chance against the West even if everything breaks their way.

[Green Line]

A very interesting discussion, dead0man.  I can't disagree with anything said here.  It seems like a far fetched scenario still, China has everything to lose for such little gain.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

dead0 you never gave your own thoughts?

I (usually) don't like to give my opinion on my polls until other people have had an opportunity to give theirs.  Don't want to influence votes for or against because of my position and/or I don't want to poison the well.


I don't think the PRC could, even if Japan,S.Korea, US, the Aussies, etc stayed out.  It's just too much to ask for a 100% inexperienced military.  Having all the bodies in the world doesn't matter if you can't get them across the straight and resupply them once there.  They can't prevent Taiwan from getting resupplied and new, top of the line gear....what are they going to do, sink US cargo ships?  The PRC's economy would go to sh**t the moment they start.  Just too many hurdles to ...umm...hurdle.

What US cargo ships? The goddamned Marshall Islands have a merchant marine eight times the size of ours. All of our merchant marine is too busy sucking tit from overpriced government contracts and protected Jones Act routes to ever consider making a trip to Asia, even in peacetime.

[dead0man]

dead0 you never gave your own thoughts?

I (usually) don't like to give my opinion on my polls until other people have had an opportunity to give theirs.  Don't want to influence votes for or against because of my position and/or I don't want to poison the well.


I don't think the PRC could, even if Japan,S.Korea, US, the Aussies, etc stayed out.  It's just too much to ask for a 100% inexperienced military.  Having all the bodies in the world doesn't matter if you can't get them across the straight and resupply them once there.  They can't prevent Taiwan from getting resupplied and new, top of the line gear....what are they going to do, sink US cargo ships?  The PRC's economy would go to sh**t the moment they start.  Just too many hurdles to ...umm...hurdle.

What US cargo ships? The goddamned Marshall Islands have a merchant marine eight times the size of ours. All of our merchant marine is too busy sucking tit from overpriced government contracts and protected Jones Act routes to ever consider making a trip to Asia, even in peacetime.

aye, that's true.  Let me rephrase....

what are they going to do, sink Liberian cargo ships full of small arms, ammo and a dozen Apaches?

[jaichind]

Global Views Monthly ROC survey



"If war breaks out between the two sides of the straits (very neutral terminology to balance between pro-Independence crowd that would say China vs Taiwan and pro-unification crowd like me that would say Mainland vs Taiwan) what should we do?"

54.2% - Peace talks
22.2% - Get USA involved
16.5% - Fight to the bitter end
 0.8% - Surrender

Of course Peace talks is another word for re-jiggering the pollical relationship between PRC and ROC so there is peace but some variation of nominal unified sovereignty is maintained between the two sides.  Many on the pro-Independence bloc would view that as surrender but I guess that is better than trying to face the PLA.

What the poll does not cover are the circumstances that war breaks out as the PRC is unlikely to unless ROC takes some sort of action on the sovereignty  issue and in such a case the USA is unlikely to get involved although that might change in the coming decades.

[HisGrace]

The Virus this year may have been a opportunity, but the CCP went for Hong Kong instead, a much easier step in the path to full reunification. Taiwan will likely wait a decade or two at least, and that doesn't matter to the CCP as the status quo benefits them internally.

I'm not sure how much corona had to do with Hong Kong. The US was never going to really intervene there anyway in any case. Not the same thing as Taiwan.