if the PRC invaded Taiwan, and Taiwan's friends did nothing but send weapons/gear/money... (user search)
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  if the PRC invaded Taiwan, and Taiwan's friends did nothing but send weapons/gear/money... (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Could the PRC invade Taiwan if Taiwan gets no active help from outside?
#1
yes, the PRC could Taiwan even if everyone helped them
 
#2
yes, the PRC could take Taiwan even if a Taiwan's allies half assed helped
 
#3
yes, the PRC could take Taiwan if they only got material support from friends
 
#4
tough to say, neither military has been tested recently
 
#5
no, Taiwan can defend itself, especially if it got good toys from friends
 
#6
no, Taiwan could defend itself even without any help
 
#7
Dr Phil's left testicle
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: if the PRC invaded Taiwan, and Taiwan's friends did nothing but send weapons/gear/money...  (Read 1795 times)
urutzizu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 587
« on: August 22, 2020, 07:44:53 PM »

I agree, the morale aspect is very important. On the mainland the entire population, and all sectors of the military and civil society, would stand behind any attempt at forceful reunification, and the Central Government can take huge economic and military losses before that starts to vain. Everyone supports reunification.

On Taiwan you can divide :
(1) About 60% of the Population that, for a lack of a better term, is "anti-China" on either identity or political grounds, in most case a synthesis, pan-green if you wish though it also includes some people who generally vote pan-blue (for various reasons). These people would in theory strong reason to resist any Invasion resolutely. However in practice this is doubtful, because even in this group one can expect defeatism from the get-go as reflected in the overwhelming feeling that Taiwan could not defend itself in case of an Invasion. It is also reflected in the trouble with enlistment the ROC Armed Forces has with the pan-green youth. From a Chinese nationalist perspective, this can be viewed as highly ironic, because as Taiwanese nationalism constructed itself on the appropriation of western values and Individualism, it actually simultaneously eroded any traditional nationalistic/Chinese ethos needed for the populace, particularly the youth, to defend said "nation", such as discipline or communitarianism. 
(2) there is a major part of the population, perhaps about 35%, that agrees with Reunification in principle, that would still be opposed to an Invasion, but with even less vigor than (1). Would these people be prepared to make major sacrifices, including life, in defending a concept of a nation they do not identify with, on political grounds? 
(3) lastly there is a minor part of the population, about 5%, that supports Reunification in all circumstances. These people can be expected to tacitly support the Invasion at best, or actively act as a fifth column at worst. 

And the ROC armed forces sways disproportionally toward (2) and (3) compared to the rest of the population. The trouble Taiwan has is somewhat unique. Usually, in almost every nation, even the most politically polarized societies, in times of war there is a very strong degree of unity among all classes of the population, as there is absolutely no reason of commitment why one would side with the enemy. But in Taiwan you have a large section of the population, and an even larger section of the Military that actually view the "enemy" on the other side as their country, and see in refusing to fight or desertion, not Treason or dereliction of duty, but actually the most patriotic thing one can do. 

However, the fact remains that at this stage of US-China relations, the US would likely intervene militarily in such a situation, which makes it extremely unlikely. Even if the PRC could successfully complete the Invasion in said case, which is not clear with the balance of power yet, the PRC will not attack, until the US has declined significantly and is in some massive internal crisis. The Virus this year may have been a opportunity, but the CCP went for Hong Kong instead, a much easier step in the path to full reunification. Taiwan will likely wait a decade or two at least, and that doesn't matter to the CCP as the status quo benefits them internally. The main danger is that the nationalism on the mainland internally escalates to a degree where the CCP cannot keep a lid on it, and is forced into hasty moves by popular sentiments, but that is not likely at this stage.
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