Is Minnesota highly competitive?

[W]

Hear me out. We don't get as much data from Minnesota as other states but the data we do have from the past month?

Trafalgar 8/15-18 1,141 LV: Tie

Emerson 8/8-8/10 733 LV: Biden +3

David Binder 7/30-31 200 LV: Biden +18

Democracy Institute 7/29-31 450 LV: Trump +1

Morning Consult 7/17-26 662 LV: Biden +3

Trafalgar 7/23-25 1,129 LV: Biden +5

Public Policy 7/22-23 1,218 UNK: Biden +10

Besides the David Binder poll which I think we can all agree is an outlier given they are the geniuses behind the Biden +8 Iowa poll, all data seems to point that Minnesota is tightening up. I don't wanna get into conservative denialism "BUT WHAT ABOUT NEVADA???" takes, but I think it is fair to consider that this is an environment where a flip is possible.

I further elaborate that in 2016 Minnesota went to Clinton by a mere 1.52%, while in the polls she never lead Trump by any less than 6%. This is the one of few states where Clinton at least in the polls is outperforming Biden, and for that reason, I think we should take note of it. This simply just is not a case of a Nevada where polls skew Republican.

I'm gonna move Minnesota to tilt D in my model but I love Atlas explaining why my decisions are stupid so I'd love to hear some other takes on the matter.

[Roblox]

I mean we got very few polls from Minnesota in 2016 so I don't think a poll average means much then. Trump just isn't gonna flip Minnesota when he's losing by high single digits nationwide, whatever Trafalgar says.

[Tender Branson]

Doubt it, but who knows ...

The primary numbers out of MN recently showed higher DEM enthusiasm compared to 2016, but it's only a small fraction of the expected 75-80% turnout there.

The Nazi-mask-wearers in the MN supermarket also gave me the impression that something is wrong with the US, or MN and that something could be brewing ...

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The only poll that would come close to worry me about Minnesota is that Morning Consult one, and it could be an outlier. The other polls showing a close race are pretty much garbage with an obvious R bias (especially the Democracy Institute one, which comes from the only pollster that has Trump ahead nationwide).

[SaneDemocrat]

Polls are going to off somewhat significantly.MN and TX are both competitive.Not possible.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Polls are going to off somewhat significantly.MN and TX are both competitive.Not possible.

It's 2020-everything is possible this year

[W]

Polls are going to off somewhat significantly.MN and TX are both competitive.Not possible.

I'd argue it's possible for both Minnesota and Texas to be competitive. Nothing is linear in this race.

[Alben Barkley]

“Democracy Institute” is that UK right-wing tabloid trash poll, and STILL the best they could get for Trump is a 1 point lead well within the margin of error.

Anyone who unironically thinks Minnesota is “highly competitive” is snorting crack. The fact that a slight majority actually says that right now shows how irrational and reactionary this forum can be.

It’s expected that if Biden is up in Minnesota by high single digits or so, some polls will show him up narrowly and others by double digits. That’s just how polling works. Literally nothing here is a surprise.

I don’t know why I’m still arguing this point; it just seems blatantly obvious that this forum simply can’t accept the cold hard fact that Trump is all but dead in the water. It’s too BORING, I guess, to acknowledge that there is no midwest state that is going to magically and surprisingly save Trump from certain defeat. First it was Wisconsin; now that it’s clear that ain’t gonna happen, it’s Minnesota. A state that Hillary won and that most actual high quality polls have shown Biden with lopsided leads in.

It’s cringeworthy and pathetic the way people are moving the goalposts to still desperately pretend this race is close. What’s next, lean R Virginia or Colorado???

It is literally more likely, by an order of magnitude, that Biden wins Texas than that Trump wins Minnesota according to the polls. And FAR more likely he wins Florida. Yet people still act like that’s a pure toss-up if not lean R. Insane.

[Alben Barkley]

It was one of the closest states in 2016, so absolutely.

2018 house races were 55-44.

Klob won 60-36.

Trump couldn’t even win it in 2016, by all indications a far better year for him and Republicans across the board.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's moderately competitive.  I put it in the same tier as PA+MI.  Not likely to flip but if Trump wins, he probably wins the state.

[Woody]

It was one of the closest states in 2016, so absolutely.

2018 house races were 55-44.

Klob won 60-36.

Trump couldn’t even win it in 2016, by all indications a far better year for him and Republicans across the board.

There is a subzero chance Trump wins it. By all means keep snorting that crack though, troll.

Republicans won the House PV by 5 points (350,000+ votes) in Florida, in a D+8 year, I guess that makes it likely Trump.

[WD]

Thinking MN is competitive is the peak of delusion. No Clinton state is going to flip in a D+8-10 environment.

[woodley park]

I think Minnesota is highly overrated as a Trump target in the aftermath of COVID-19, but I don't see why Biden wouldn't want to campaign there. It seems smart to be spending time in the Upper Midwest in general.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

No need to call people who disagree with you a troll.

With that said, it's not especially competitive. Without some sort of credible third party challenge, it wasn't going to be competitive. 2016 was a fluke, the demographics of the state are actually not very favorable to him (it's hugely urban/suburban, much more educated than average, the DFL is competent and MN GOP sucks)  and most importantly, the national fundamentals have trended less favorable to Trump for several months now.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To the point that Trump '16 voters largely stayed home in 2018:  midterms, of course, usually yield lower turnouts than presidential election cycles.  But just as Democrats stressed the importance of re-taking the House (and potentially the Senate), President Trump made no secret that it was imperative that the Republicans hold onto control of both chambers. 

By keeping control of the House, it basically ensured another attempt to the repeal the ACA, would keep an upper-hand on the Mueller findings (or, at the very least, how the House congressional committees handled them), and nullify any legislative pushes by the Democrats. 

So I'm not necessarily in love with the notion that the Republicans "took it easy" on the Democrats in 2018. 

That being said -- as it applies to Minnesota, the Great Lakes State joins Nevada as one that the Democrats will likely win in November, but also one that they cannot completely assume as a lock. 

[Yellowhammer]

No, it’s Titanium D

[tagimaucia]

To the point that Trump '16 voters largely stayed home in 2018:  midterms, of course, usually yield lower turnouts than presidential election cycles. 

The 2016 voters who stayed home in 2018 went for Clinton over Trump in 2016.  At least nationally.  Might not be the case in every battleground state.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To the point that Trump '16 voters largely stayed home in 2018:  midterms, of course, usually yield lower turnouts than presidential election cycles.  

The 2016 voters who stayed home in 2018 went for Clinton over Trump in 2016.  At least nationally.  Might not be the case in every battleground state.

I don't think we're disagreeing, dear.  

And I also never noticed that Lake-of-the-Woods County is cut-off on the Atlas MN avatar.  

[ProudModerate2]

I'm a bit surprised as to how many "Yes" votes we are seeing, to classify MN as "highly" competitive.

[Koharu]

Competitive, yes. Highly? Definitely not. Highly competitive would put it in typical swing state realms, and it's still more to the Dems than the Pubs.

That said, in n Minnesota it's going to be all about turnout. Who feels they have the most to lose and thus are spurred to action? A Trump win in Minnesota isn't impossible, but it's not likely enough to make Minnesota highly competitive.

[Suburbia]

I'm a bit surprised as to how many "Yes" votes we are seeing, to classify MN as "highly" competitive.

It is.

MN is not Safe D.

The Floyd protests, the Bob Kroll Minneapolis police union factor, Democrats probably losing the Iron Range all is a factor. Ilhan Omar will be in ever MNGOP advertisement in November, so this is not Safe D.

MN is usually fools gold for Republicans, but Democrats should at least pour resources there.

[President Johnson]

We lack sufficient polling from this state. I think 2016 is a little overrated here, as Trump did barely better than Mitt Romney. The reason it was so close are third parties, which won't be as much of a factor this year. Aside from that, Joe Biden is doing better nationally than Hillary, and I really doubt there is that much of a Republican trend statewide in a national environment like this. The 2018 elections and 2020 primaries certainly don't back up the "Minnesota is a pure tossup" narrative.

[Buzz]

Its about as competitive as Texas is, so take that FWIW

[Suburbia]

We lack sufficient polling from this state. I think 2016 is a little overrated here, as Trump did barely better than Mitt Romney. The reason it was so close are third parties, which won't be as much of a factor this year. Aside from that, Joe Biden is doing better nationally than Hillary, and I really doubt there is that much of a Republican trend statewide in a national environment like this. The 2018 elections and 2020 primaries certainly don't back up the "Minnesota is a pure tossup" narrative.

Do midterms really translate to the presidential?

This is not a 1994 to 1996 in which Clinton triangulated/moderated his agenda, Trump has remained hard populist.

Minnesota is Lean D, the Floyd protests/defund the police thing has an effect. Bob Kroll's wife works at WCOO, they are going to report on the protests still going on.

https://patch.com/minnesota/stillwater/protesters-whack-piatas-wcco-reporter-liz-collins-bob-kroll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a swing state, but it's not as important as WI, OH and PA which will be competetive with Kasich endorsement