IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D): Biden +13

[ElectionsGuy]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

[ElectionsGuy]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

You obviously have to know that the national numbers do not line up anywhere near this. Biden would have to be obliterating Trump by 20+ nationally for these to make any sense.

[ElectionsGuy]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

You obviously have to know that the national numbers do not line up anywhere near this. Biden would have to be obliterating Trump by 20+ nationally for these to make any sense.

You're assuming a uniform swing though

Not really but why would both IN-05 and Louisiana have huge Democratic trends if it were true. We see all these state and district polls that imply large Democratic trends or are just way too good for Democrats but there are hardly any polls (none that I can think of) that show the same for Trump/Republicans. It's time for people to admit this just doesn't make sense, not all polling is trustworthy.