IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D): Biden +13

[VAR]

Biden 55%
Trump 42%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512749-democrat-holds-5-point-lead-in-key-indiana-house-race-dccc-poll

[Tintrlvr]

This district was Trump+12 in 2016.

[redjohn]

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Wow, that's incredible.

[Person Man]

Hopefully Democrats start making inroads in the 'burbs of even conservative states. Not enough maybe to start swinging them at any level statewide, but enough to keep the Democrats entrenched in the House and maybe win back and couple of state legislatures.

[Hope For A New Era]

1776 2008 will commence again if you try to take our firearms postal service

[wbrocks67]

Wow. 25% shift since 2016. It cannot be stated how toxic Trump is in the suburbs.

[Tender Branson]

IN is one of the weirdest states this year.

There have been polls showing anything between a 2008-Obama surprise and a 2016-Trump (or better, Pence) blowout.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Holy hell.

[Rand]

Wow. 25% shift since 2016. It cannot be stated how toxic Trump is in the suburbs.

Not as toxic as all these poll numbers seem to be to the Trump supporters on this board. Ain’t seen hide nor hair of ‘em in ages.

[ElectionsGuy]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

[wbrocks67]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

[ElectionsGuy]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

You obviously have to know that the national numbers do not line up anywhere near this. Biden would have to be obliterating Trump by 20+ nationally for these to make any sense.

[Ferguson97]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

You obviously have to know that the national numbers do not line up anywhere near this. Biden would have to be obliterating Trump by 20+ nationally for these to make any sense.

You're assuming a uniform swing though

[ElectionsGuy]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

You obviously have to know that the national numbers do not line up anywhere near this. Biden would have to be obliterating Trump by 20+ nationally for these to make any sense.

You're assuming a uniform swing though

Not really but why would both IN-05 and Louisiana have huge Democratic trends if it were true. We see all these state and district polls that imply large Democratic trends or are just way too good for Democrats but there are hardly any polls (none that I can think of) that show the same for Trump/Republicans. It's time for people to admit this just doesn't make sense, not all polling is trustworthy.

[Gracile]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

You obviously have to know that the national numbers do not line up anywhere near this. Biden would have to be obliterating Trump by 20+ nationally for these to make any sense.

Uniform swing is not a real thing. I don't fully buy these numbers either, but this is one part of the country one can expect to shift significanty toward Biden relative to the nation.

[It’s so Joever]

This is a D-internal, people.

[libertpaulian]

This is a D internal.  It's probably something along the lines of Biden +6.

[lfromnj]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

If Biden is up 13 here, then yes, that seems likely that he would only be down something like 7 in Louisiana statewide...

You obviously have to know that the national numbers do not line up anywhere near this. Biden would have to be obliterating Trump by 20+ nationally for these to make any sense.

Uniform swing is not a real thing. I don't fully buy these numbers either, but this is one part of the country one can expect to shift significanty toward Biden relative to the nation.

His point is do people really believe Lousiana will swing by 13 points towards Biden and Indiana 5th will swing by 20 points to Biden?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I think it is possible. Rural areas probably swing to the GOP further (and possibly exurbans as well) while suburban areas have massive swings to the dems cancelling any rural swings out and much more.

[DrScholl]

Biden could easily win that district by that much and still lose the state. Donnelly received about 6% more than Clinton in rural areas, so if Trump performs like he did in 2016 in those areas, but tanks in IN-5, then Biden probably ends up with about 44-45% of the vote statewide which is not impossible.

[Tintrlvr]

Biden could easily win that district by that much and still lose the state. Donnelly received about 6% more than Clinton in rural areas, so if Trump performs like he did in 2016 in those areas, but tanks in IN-5, then Biden probably ends up with about 44-45% of the vote statewide which is not impossible.

In fact, Biden at 45% statewide in Indiana seems eminently plausible on a Biden+10 victory nationwide, which is where the national polls are at roughly now as well. That would be perfectly in line with the UNS.

And, yes, obviously, once again, the poll is of a district that is not representative of the national swing. Biden gaining 25 points net on Clinton in this district seems like a lot to me, but on the other hand the indications of the very largest swings have generally been in the suburbs of Southern cities (Dallas, Houston, Atlanta), and, while Indianapolis is in the North, it's definitely the most "Southern" Northern metropolis. This district could trend very strongly Democratic while most of the rest of the state trends Republican for an overall Indiana swing that is roughly in line with, or possibly even less than, the national swing.

[Sbane]

While the topline number is likely way too optimistic for Biden, this bodes very well for him throughout the Midwest. He doesn't need this much of a swing in either Oakland or the WOW counties to lock up Michigan and Wisconsin.

[Badger]

Wow. 25% shift since 2016. It cannot be stated how toxic Trump is in the suburbs.

Not as toxic as all these poll numbers seem to be to the Trump supporters on this board. Ain’t seen hide nor hair of ‘em in ages.

Nice, huh?

[HAnnA MArin County]

Could this mean, perhaps, that the Democratic House candidate (whoever it is) will have a chance at winning this district? Susan Brooks is retiring, and now I think we can see why if these polls out of IN-05 are to be believed.