IN-05 - Tulchin Research (D): Biden +13

[Smash255]

These Democratic internals are some of the worst and most obviously phony numbers I've seen in a long time. Somehow Biden up 13 here but only down 7 in Louisiana. People are suckers if they actually believe this stuff.

Donnelly won the district by 0.5% while losing statewide by about 6%.

So somehow Biden's going to outperform Donnelly by 12 when he only lost the state by 6. Basically implying Biden's going to win Indiana, which is completely impossible.

Very unlikely to be Biden +13, this is a Dem internal after all.  However, there is certainly no question the district is going to trend heavily towards Biden, especially compared to the rest of the state.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Stunning swing, and gives me huge confidence that Biden's EC ceiling is higher than anyone is reasonably predicting right now.

[GlobeSoc]

if this elections sees the consolidation of metro areas behind the democrats, we could see an unexpectedly large landslide. A "liberal revolution" based on a democratic surge in suburbs could cause states to have massive swings across the country across regional lines, easily producing something like a national Biden +12 result

However, I will say that even if that does happen, we should still be careful not to presume anything about 2022. There is still lots of room for democrats to fall in industrial population centers and rural whites, which could accelerate after the unpopular trump is gone even if the GOP goes full Qanon. A democratic civil war between progressives and moderates over legislative policy will likely not help matters.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Did Biden and Hale promise extra funding for roundabout construction?

Even with Nora, you still have Fissures, Car-MEL, and Westfield in there. I can't imagine Biden getting anywhere near carrying Hamilton County.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 5-10, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

[AGA]

This board is just ElectionsGuy dunking on all the D-hacks, lol.