LA - ALG Research (D): Trump +7

[VAR]

Trump 50%
Biden 43%

https://mcusercontent.com/70dd8d69ff6d12f740d3fd646/files/e706bc9c-0729-4ed4-82e9-36bd9c49862b/LA_SEN_POLL_MEMO_AUG_2020_081820_FINAL.01.pdf

[BobbieMac]

Biden +15 nationally on UNS.

[Tender Branson]

FINALLY !

... a Lousiana poll.

Trump+7 to +11 looks pretty likely there, yes.

[soundchaser]

HELL YEAH! Finally a Louisiana poll!

If Biden keeps it within single digits (definitely possible), it'll be the closest any Democrat has come to winning since 2000.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I had a dream a few months back we'd get an LA poll with this margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS is gonna be the closest race to watch, not LA, there isnt any Senate race. Along with AZ, NC, and FL, it trended D in 2018

[soundchaser]

KS is gonna be the closest race to watch, not LA, there isnt any Senate race. Along with AZ, NC, and FL, it trended D in 2018

...there is a Senate race, though? It won't be particularly close, but it does exist.

[Devout Centrist]

Horrible result for Biden in Los Angeles. What happened?

[Dr. Arch]

Horrible result for Biden in Los Angeles. What happened?

/s?

[Buzz]

So when Trump wins the state by double this margin, will y’all consider this poll garbage finally?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Horrible result for Biden in Los Angeles. What happened?

You mean it's not Lower Alabama?  (That's the Florida panhandle, for non-Southerners.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So when Trump wins the state by double this margin, will y’all consider this poll garbage finally?

Not if Biden hits 43%. ALG research internals tend to be overly optimistic about Democratic performance anyway, but polls of deep red/blue states tend to underestimate their dominant parties' support levels because undecided voters break heavily in one direction.

This is still safe R.

[emailking]

So when Trump wins the state by double this margin, will y’all consider this poll garbage finally?

If they release a similar poll the week before and that happens, sure.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

FINALLY !

... a Lousiana poll.

Trump+7 to +11 looks pretty likely there, yes.

Trumpmentum! Trump was up 4 points in the last LA poll.

[Calthrina950]

I doubt that Biden will come within single digits here in the end, but polls haven't been too kind to Trump even in Safe Republican states. Almost every poll-not just here, but in states like Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and even Alabama-has shown him performing worse than in 2016. It's clear that Trump's erosion of support among urban and suburban voters is having some impact on his performances across the board.

[ElectionsGuy]

I doubt that Biden will come within single digits here in the end, but polls haven't been too kind to Trump even in Safe Republican states. Almost every poll-not just here, but in states like Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and even Alabama-has shown him performing worse than in 2016. It's clear that Trump's erosion of support among urban and suburban voters is having some impact on his performances across the board.

This isn't it (in this case). Most polls have shown Trump doing 4-5 points worse than 2016 polls across multiple demographic groups, not concentrated among suburbanites or highly educated people. If anything, it's mostly white people and less so minorities vs 2016, so in a state like Louisiana that would suggest Trump's erosion should be less than other whiter states.

Don't fall for this trap again. These polls always underestimate Trump's margin in safe red states, they have had issues capturing the full extent of the Republican support base (which includes many still registered Democrats in a state like Louisiana) and that's almost certainly why they're even worse for Trump relative to the national polls.

[G_Master]

FINALLY a poll out of Louisiana. It’s a pretty bad poll for Trump all things considered.

[DrScholl]

Louisiana is now about 33% Black and there are lots of college educated white votes in suburban New Orleans (mostly Jefferson Parish). There is room for a large swing here and it wouldn't surprise me if it was within single digits.

[Calthrina950]

I doubt that Biden will come within single digits here in the end, but polls haven't been too kind to Trump even in Safe Republican states. Almost every poll-not just here, but in states like Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and even Alabama-has shown him performing worse than in 2016. It's clear that Trump's erosion of support among urban and suburban voters is having some impact on his performances across the board.

This isn't it (in this case). Most polls have shown Trump doing 4-5 points worse than 2016 polls across multiple demographic groups, not concentrated among suburbanites or highly educated people. If anything, it's mostly white people and less so minorities vs 2016, so in a state like Louisiana that would suggest Trump's erosion should be less than other whiter states.

Don't fall for this trap again. These polls always underestimate Trump's margin in safe red states, they have had issues capturing the full extent of the Republican support base (which includes many still registered Democrats in a state like Louisiana) and that's almost certainly why they're even worse for Trump relative to the national polls.

Are you implying that the polls are severely misjudging the extent of Trump's support? I've read the posts which you've made recently, and your argument seems to be that Trump is being greatly underestimated, both by posters on this forum and by many of the pollsters. Now, I'm not of the belief that Trump is going to get blown out of the water in November. My belief has always been that the best Biden could do would be to replicate Obama's 2008 victory, garnering north of 350 electoral votes and beating Trump by 7-8% in the popular vote. I also still do think that Trump has a chance to win the Electoral College again, although I think that his path is more perilous. But I'm not sure if it's appropriate to view this election entirely through the lens of 2016, or 2008. This election is unique on its own merits, changed as it has been by the conditions of the pandemic. Moreover, Biden is not disliked to the depth or the extent that Hillary Clinton was, and he has managed to rally the Democratic base much more then she did.

I'm also aware that Biden has been outperforming Clinton generally across each demographic group. We've had polls showing Biden garnering 90% or more of the black vote-which I attribute to several factors (Biden having been Obama's Vice-President and thus being affiliated with him; the selection of Kamala Harris as his running mate; Trump's racial record and divisive rhetoric alienating black voters). We're seeing polls indicating that Biden is running stronger among Hispanics then Clinton. We've seen polls showing him doing much better then her among college-educated voters and among women, but also reducing the deficit with working-class white voters and with men.

The specific state polls I allude to indicate that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump voters, and many of the third-party voters who did not approve of either Clinton or Trump last time, and may be dissatisfied by Trump's performance. And note that when I was discussing these polls, I was bringing attention to Trump's weaknesses among urban and suburban voters, which have been well documented. We've seen data indicating that places like Johnson County, Kansas, Hays County, Texas, Hamilton County, Indiana, the Collar Counties of Philadelphia, Oklahoma County, Oklahoma, Charleston County, South Carolina, etc. are all swinging in varying degrees to Biden. And several of these counties (i.e. Johnson, Charleston, Oklahoma, Hamilton) are located in states that Trump will win in November. As we saw in the 2018 midterms, these places are trending Democratic fast, and Trump's gains in the rural and exurban regions of those states aren't sufficient enough to improve his margins compared to last time.

I certainly will not take this election for granted, but given everything that has happened this year, it's hard for me to see Trump as being the favorite at this juncture in time.

[AGA]

Lol, no.

[pbrower2a]

I have seen indications that the overwhelming leads that Republicans have typically expected in the Deep South are not as strong as usual. Such happens in a large, even shift of the vote.

Trump has no special affinity to the Deep South.

Perhaps of some consequence is that Joe Biden is a devout Catholic.

[Pericles]

Biden +15 nationally on UNS.

Amazing. And LA seems like an inelastic state, maybe a UNS actually underestimates his margin when applying it from Deep South polls.

[SenatorCouzens]

In 2016, Louisiana went Trump 58 to 38, and the posters of this board really accept that this is a 7 point race in 2020??

[soundchaser]

In 2016, Louisiana went Trump 58 to 38, and the posters of this board really accept that this is a 7 point race in 2020??

I don’t think you realize just how hard this state has been hit by the pandemic, and particularly by the Republican legislature tying the governor’s hands behind his back. Consider also Biden’s Catholicism resonating in the suburbs around New Orleans (heavily ancestral Catholic areas). Do I think it’ll be a 7-point margin? No. Will it be closer than people are expecting? Probably.

[SenatorCouzens]

In 2016, Louisiana went Trump 58 to 38, and the posters of this board really accept that this is a 7 point race in 2020??

I don’t think you realize just how hard this state has been hit by the pandemic, and particularly by the Republican legislature tying the governor’s hands behind his back. Consider also Biden’s Catholicism resonating in the suburbs around New Orleans (heavily ancestral Catholic areas). Do I think it’ll be a 7-point margin? No. Will it be closer than people are expecting? Probably.

Thank you for the serious response. I'm new to the board. And while there are some Republican trolls, the overwhelming number of posters seem to be always on the same note -- "everything is coming up roses for the Democratic Party" -- and it is a bit puzzling and overwhelming and not very analytical. Anyway, thanks for the response.