GA (Garin-Hart-Yang/Ossoff Internal): Ossoff +2
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  GA (Garin-Hart-Yang/Ossoff Internal): Ossoff +2
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Author Topic: GA (Garin-Hart-Yang/Ossoff Internal): Ossoff +2  (Read 660 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: August 19, 2020, 11:05:12 AM »

Ossoff 48
Perdue 46

Up from Ossoff +1 in their last poll.

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Western Democrat
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2020, 11:55:15 AM »

They must have forgotten to poll the suburbs.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2020, 12:04:40 PM »

Internal.. so realistically Perdue is a few points up.

In line with what we've seen with other Georgia polls.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2020, 04:17:21 PM »

They must have forgotten to poll the suburbs.

I think they only polled Fulton county, personally.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2020, 08:55:38 PM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Garin-Hart-Yang on 2020-08-13

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2020, 11:19:40 PM »

Only up 2 points in an internal is not very good, and not including presidential toplines is weird (maybe the presidential result is something shocking like Biden+6%, but Ossoff is on 48% of the vote). This is a pretty competitive race though.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2020, 11:35:38 PM »

GA needs a ton of investment. It's gonna be very close this year, & - like much of the Sun Belt - it's the future of the Democratic Party. Metro Atlanta is one of the most diverse areas in the nation, & if the party wants to make inroads with the Asian community (& especially the Indian vote), then Gwinnett & Forsyth counties are key starting points. Hopefully, Ossoff is covering (& Warnock can finally start to cover) all of their bases, & I'm glad Biden is spending there too.

Also, I find it absolutely bonkers that the incumbent's race seems more achievable than the open-ish seat's race featuring a Trumpist ass-kisser & a likely criminal.
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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2020, 11:46:28 PM »

GA needs a ton of investment. It's gonna be very close this year, & - like much of the Sun Belt - it's the future of the Democratic Party. Metro Atlanta is one of the most diverse areas in the nation, & if the party wants to make inroads with the Asian community (& especially the Indian vote), then Gwinnett & Forsyth counties are key starting points. Hopefully, Ossoff is covering (& Warnock can finally start to cover) all of their bases, & I'm glad Biden is spending there too.

Also, I find it absolutely bonkers that the incumbent's race seems more achievable than the open-ish seat's race featuring a Trumpist ass-kisser & a likely criminal.

That race is probably underrated. A runoff won't be an automatic Republican win given both Collins and Loeffler are weak candidates as you've said, and Barrow got 48% in his low profile 2018 runoff. The education gap could mitigate the runoff effect, as the turnout dropoff would affect non college-educated whites as well as minorities and so shift the white vote to the left.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2020, 12:23:02 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2020, 10:45:05 AM by Calthrina950 »

They must have forgotten to poll the suburbs.

I think they only polled Fulton county, personally.

But Fulton County is almost in Perdue's backyard! If they polled only Fulton County, he would be leading by at least 20 points. This poll must have been conducted in Rabun County. They love Jon Ossoff down there, and see him as one of their own!

Sarcasm.
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Bibi Be Gone
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2020, 09:37:33 AM »

Atlas memes aside, this is probably fool's gold although it's still worth spending some money on the race.  Iowa and even Montana are far better pickup opportunities.  
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2020, 09:43:39 AM »

Atlas memes aside, this is probably fool's gold although it's still worth spending some money on the race.  Iowa and even Montana are far better pickup opportunities.  

It bewilders me that people on this forum continually refuse to look at data and just go off their priors. The polls are pretty much a dead heat for this race, so how is it "fools gold"?

Also, no one said you can't do all 3 at once?
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YE
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2020, 11:12:22 AM »

Atlas memes aside, this is probably fool's gold although it's still worth spending some money on the race.  Iowa and even Montana are far better pickup opportunities.  

It bewilders me that people on this forum continually refuse to look at data and just go off their priors. The polls are pretty much a dead heat for this race, so how is it "fools gold"?

Also, no one said you can't do all 3 at once?

The runoff, though tbf with only 2 candidates and a libertarian, 50+1% is more attainable than I previously had feared. This is probably seat #52-54 for Democrats.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2020, 11:40:28 AM »

Also, I find it absolutely bonkers that the incumbent's race seems more achievable than the open-ish seat's race featuring a Trumpist ass-kisser & a likely criminal.

it's cause dem recruiting was bad for the special - warnock just had his first ad... and lieberman is not inspiring
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Bibi Be Gone
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2020, 11:44:14 AM »

Atlas memes aside, this is probably fool's gold although it's still worth spending some money on the race.  Iowa and even Montana are far better pickup opportunities.  

It bewilders me that people on this forum continually refuse to look at data and just go off their priors. The polls are pretty much a dead heat for this race, so how is it "fools gold"?

Also, no one said you can't do all 3 at once?

First off, I literally said that while this race was probably fool's gold, it was still worth spending money here.  Probably =\= definitely and I've long distinguished between this race and the special (the latter of which is definitely fool's gold at best).

While I expect Osoff to be leading by a few points in the initial GE, he needs 50% +1.  I don't see that happening and while it won't be nearly as bad as in the past, Republicans have a major advantage in Georgia's post-election day runoffs.  Realistically, Osoff needs to win outright on the regular election day.  That could happen and as such it's definitely worth the DSCC spending some money here, but it's highly unlikely compared to our odds of flipping the Iowa or Montana Senate seats (where we're narrowly ahead and narrowly behind, respectively).  

As for Iowa, I am looking at the data.  Ernst has been trailing pretty consistently for a while now - although it's hardly a sure thing, not even close - and this is probably seat 51 if things remain as they are.  Montana - which currently looks like seat 52 - has always been really competitive ever since Bullock got in and while Daines seems to be slightly ahead at the moment, this one could also easily go either way.  
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2020, 12:18:25 PM »

Barrow didn't do a whole lot worse than Abrams in the runoff, and that was for Secretary of State, which people didn't care as much about, so I don't think this whole "Democrats do so terribly in the runoffs in GA" thing rings true anymore
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